[ManeOnFire]

Some of you asked me for past results.
I was on vacation in July, so no results for then.
Here are my picks front he past:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Shit you killed it! And all your picks are automated except for putting in the odds and then placing the wagers of course?

[nash13]

Shit you killed it! And all your picks are automated except for putting in the odds and then placing the wagers of course?

I wish it was so easy, the hardest part is to gather all the data. Calculating the picks is easy. I use some formula in SPSS.
Ok people will say this may be random or some steam or luck, so i wanted to keep track in public. It is still in an early development phase. I guess 4 months of data aren't enough yet.

[nash13]

WTA Hong Kong
Lisicki S. 1.59@5Dimes

Banja Luka Challenger (Pick for Final may follow later once games are finished)
Ramos A. 2.03@Pinnacle
Troicki V. 1.67@Pinnacle

Istanbul Challenger
Mannarino A. 1.65@Unibet

Biella Challenger
Viola M. 2.36@Pinnacle

Szczecin Challenger
Struff J-L. 1.71@Pinnacle

WTA Quebec
Pcik will follow once odds are settled

[dalogester]

nice handicapping.

[nash13]

WTA Quebec
Williams V. 1.26@Pinnacle

Banja Luka Challenger
Troicki V. 1.9@Interwetten

[nash13]

149-76
+19.89
if venus wins, it will finish the week with 20 units profit. hooray

[nash13]

Next week will have over 300 games.
1 ATP
3 WTA
5 Challenger

[nash13]

WTA Guangzhou
Bacsinszky T. 1.34@Tempobet
Beck A. 1.51@Pinnacle
Parmentier P. 2.16@Pinnacle
Piter K. 4.05@Pinnacle
Cornet A. 1.22@Pinnacle
Larsson J. 2.63@sportingbet
Vinci R. 1.18@Pinnacle

WTA Seoul
Garcia C. 2.23@Pinnacle
Shvedova Y. 1.89@Tempobet
Jang S. J. 2.16@Pinnacle
McHale C. 1.41@Pinnacle
Lepchenko V. 1.18@Tempobet
Scheepers C. 2.2@William Hill

WTA Tokio
Safarova L. 1.85@Pinncle
Kuznetsova S. 1.62@Tempobet
Pavlyuchenkova A. 2.28@Pinnacle

Challenger and ATP Picks may follow once the odds are settled

[nash13]

Campinas Challenger
Collarini A. 2.77@Pinnacle
Andreozzi G. 1.05@Pinnacle
Lama G. 2.88@Tempobet
Pereira J. 2.52@Pinnacle
Olivo R. 3.85@Marathon

Meknes Challenger
Khaddari H. 5.43@Pinnacle
Menendez A. 1.42@5Dimes
Pavlasek A. 1.67@Tempobet
Ramirez Hidalgo R. 1.33@Pinnacle
Bourgue M. 1.69@5Dimes

Quito Challenger
Souza J. 1.10@5Dimes
Molteni A. 1.38@Pinnacle
Beretta D. 3.25@Bet365
Lipovsek Puches T. 2.7@Betsson
Estrella V. 1.22@Bet365

[nash13]

Rough start to the week, down a few units, but it will catch up once the Challengers will come up. I hope so

[Djoking]

WTA Guangzhou
Bacsinszky T. 1.34@Tempobet
Beck A. 1.51@Pinnacle
Parmentier P. 2.16@Pinnacle
Piter K. 4.05@Pinnacle
Cornet A. 1.22@Pinnacle
Larsson J. 2.63@sportingbet
Vinci R. 1.18@Pinnacle

WTA Seoul
Garcia C. 2.23@Pinnacle
Shvedova Y. 1.89@Tempobet
Jang S. J. 2.16@Pinnacle
McHale C. 1.41@Pinnacle
Lepchenko V. 1.18@Tempobet
Scheepers C. 2.2@William Hill

WTA Tokio
Safarova L. 1.85@Pinncle
Kuznetsova S. 1.62@Tempobet
Pavlyuchenkova A. 2.28@Pinnacle

Challenger and ATP Picks may follow once the odds are settled

pffffffff what a stupid choice. Do you know WTA players good? Parmentie too old for WTA her game is shit, Pavluchenkova cannot realise her talent, Kuznetcova against young Bencic who would be top 10-20 ranking, Garcia

[Djoking]

Vinci and Lepchenko for 1.18 For what? For statistics win/lose?

[hitman2000]

play more atp , wta is shit only play on big coef and dont play coef lower than 1.4, do you bet all matches with equal stake?

[nash13]

Vinci and Lepchenko for 1.18 For what? For statistics win/lose?

You don't seem to understand my approach. I am using statistics to choose the games. I am not choosing on my own assumptions. It works well on several levels. So I have to admit, that it could be wise to select with filters. But as I stated before, this is a systematic selection criteria, i list everything i get.

[nash13]

play more atp , wta is shit only play on big coef and dont play coef lower than 1.4, do you bet all matches with equal stake?

t]i use 1% of the bank per bet. if i could rank the leagues i choose:
1. Challengers
2. ATP
3. WTA on the trust level.
I am still developing this.

[nash13]

ATP Metz
Kamke T.@1.98
Przysiezny M.@2.42
Janowicz J.@1.57
Lorenzi P.@1.40
Seppi A.@1.57


Campinas Challenger
Becker R.@5.00
De Paula F.@1.35
Ghem A.@1.28
Michon A.@1.85
Sikora A.@1.85


Izmir Challenger
Kudryavtsev A.@1.69
Ortega Olmedo R.@4.50
Fabbiano T.@1.31
Jaziri M.@1.85
Rudnev V.@1.15
Pavic A.@1.08


Menkes Challenger
Vaisse M.@8.15
Karatsev A.@2.20
Ouahab L.@2.50
Giustino L.@7.40
Pouille L.@1.28
Travaglia S.@1.23
Viola M.@1.49
Podlipnik-Castillo H.@1.76
Safwat M.@1.81
Crballes Baena R.@2.16
Dzumhur D.@1.05


Quito Challenger
Mektic N.@1.69
Trungeliti M.@1.64
Dellien H.@1.81
Velotti A.@1.80
Pella G.@2.25
Arevalo M.@2.40
Krajicek A.@1.35
Struvay E.@1.99


Trnava Challenger
Arnaboldi A.@2.23
Haider-Maurer A.@1.17
Ignatik U.@3.18
Mertl J.@1.31
Montanes A.@1.22
Riba P.@1.58
Veic A.@1.56


WTA Guangzhou
Cirstea S.@1.30
Jovanovski B.@2.72
Knapp K.@2.01
Stephens S.@1.30
Stosur S.@1.15
Hsieh S-W.@3.30
Mayr-Achleitner P.@1.80
Cepelova J.@1.36
Diyas Z.@1.23


WTA Seoul
Pliskova Ka.@1.21
Kanepi K.@1.50
Kirilenko M.@1.73
Wickmayer Y.@1.48
Voegele S.@1.59
Hercog P.@9.20
Rybarikova M.@2.33
Schmiedlova A. K.@2.26
Watson H.@1.72


WTA Tokio
Azarenka V.@1.16
Davis L.@1.38
Errani S.@1.60
Cibulkova D.@1.70
Gajdosova J.@2.11
Dellacqua C.@3.70
Suarez Navarro C.@1.69
Kudryavtseva A.@3.90

[Djoking]

Kirilenko M.@1.73

Why so small odds? I take her for 2.27

[felix_felicus7]

Why so small odds? I take her for 2.27

Surely Vekic was the 2.20+?

Very interesting Nash - will pm you for some detail if you don't mind.

[Djoking]

Surely Vekic was the 2.20+?

Very interesting Nash - will pm you for some detail if you don't mind.

At the start Vekic was 1.59, Kirilenko 2.27, then before match odds was Vekic 2.28, Kirilenko 1.58

[nash13]

I wrote the odds at the time i took them, if they change and are higher good for us

[nash13]

looks like sticking to the guys will make large profit long haul, but i will perform further tests till end of the year, after that i will decide on how to shape up with larger money.

[HatersGonnaHate]

If I was you I would try to stay away from the South American challengers as well. They always seem to be a crap shoot and might as well be an ITF tourney. The competion is always very poor. Worth testing to see if those are profitable or a waste

[nash13]

If I was you I would try to stay away from the South American challengers as well. They always seem to be a crap shoot and might as well be an ITF tourney. The competion is always very poor. Worth testing to see if those are profitable or a waste

Thanks a lot. These are the information I need most. I believe there are a lot of people out there with a lot of experience. The more help the better it will be long term.

[nash13]

The results of the last two days seem disappointing at first, but if we take a closer look, we can see something really nice taking shape:
Overall:
197-125
+6.95

ATP:
5-1
+3.49

CH:
122-64
+12.16

WTA:
70-60
-8.7

I think the message is clear, if this stays like this.

[HatersGonnaHate]

Wta first rounds are difficult. A lot of these chicks don't want to be there and get beat by less talented more motivated players. Normally as the rounds go on the results become more predictable

[nash13]

ATP Metz
Lajovic D.@2.8
Chardy J.@1.95
Rosol L.@2.06
Stakhovsky S.@3.05
Goffin D.@1.16
Sousa J.@3.3

Izmir Challenger
Bozoljac I.@2.23
Basic M.@2.68
Erguden B.@4.38
Moriya H.@1.96
Marti Y.@2.88
Marchenko I.@1.73
Krajinovic F.@1.21

Meknes Challenger
Carreno-Busta P.@1.10
Menendez A.@1.45
Ramirez-H. R.@2.31
Sabry S.@3.80
Safwat M.@5.55

Trnava Challenger
Crivoi V.@2.20
Darcis S.@2.00
Smirnov A.@3.55
Haase R.@1.75
Hajek J.@2.00
Delic M.@2.75
Skugor F.@2.55
Novak D.@3.85

WTA Guangzhou
Bacsinszky T.@1.81
Doi M.@3.03
Cornet A.@1.25
Puig M.@1.25
Riske A.@1.44
Torro-Flor M-T.@1.73
Martic P.@2.04
Hsieh S-W.@1.71

WTA Seoul
Pliskova Ka.@1.44
Lepchenko V.@1.09
McHale C.@2.10
Radwanska A.@1.13

WTA Tokio
Safarova L.@1.75
Dellacqua C.@1.85
Azarenka V.@2.30
Kerber A.@1.44
Vandeweghe C.@2.70

More to come tomorrow

[nash13]

Campinas Challenger
Arguello F.@1.3
Collarini A.@.275
Elias G.@1.25
Clezar G.@1.22
Schwartzmann D.@1.17
Lindell C.@1.17

Meknes Challenger
Carballes Baena R.@1.8
Pouille L.@1.42
Ramos A.@1.38

Quito Challenger
Buchanan C.@1.60
Estrella V.@1.30
Souza J.@1.34
Molteni A.@1.35
Zeballos H.@1.20

[Djoking]

Overall:
197-125
+6.95

from 8% ROI you down to 2%

[nash13]

yes. i am still evaluating things. it may drop to negative ROI who knows. two months left, till the end of the season. after that i will summarize my results and move on to nest year with what works best.

[fitguy67]

from 8% ROI you down to 2%

yes. i am still evaluating things. it may drop to negative ROI who knows. two months left, till the end of the season. after that i will summarize my results and move on to nest year with what works best.

absolutely meaningless swing statistically, given the hypothesis of a long-term 5% edge

imagine a fair coin-toss @2.10/+110 payout...an enterprise with a clear 5% edge...quick tutorial: going 500-500 at $1 per flip leaves you net +$50=+$550-$500 on your $1000 risked, right...edge = yield with expected distribution = 5% = +50/1000...

even tho there's a clear 5% edge in play here...normal variance (the toggling between "good" runs and "bad" runs) kicks in and the calculated yield at any point may be substantially above (overperforming) or below (underperforming) the expected the 5% yield

with a 5% yield, toggling 60% of this (ie. 3%) above or below this is completely normal...anything above 2% or below 8% is completely consistent with the hypothesis of a nice single-digit yield at play here...and even an early-in-the-expreiment dip below 0% into negative territory is fine as it's nature's (ie probability and statistic)'s way of counter-balancing that super-hot starting run that had us into 10%-plus territory...

_______________________
as time goes on, and the number of observations mount, the statistics converge closer to the true parameter (ie. a clearer picture of the way things really are/what really works)...for example:

*at 20 flips, 75% heads would be unsurprising, but ridiculously improbable at 400 flips

*at 400 flips, 55% heads would be unsurprising, but ridiculously improbable at 8k flips

*at 8000 or more spins, divergences from 50% heads (and from the 5% edge on betting them) are far more subdued
___________

so, as the OP suggests...let the experiment unfold, playing all the tickets his model spits out...resisting the temptation to "filter" anything (as this--in addition to inviting "Murphy's Law" into the picture to filter out more winning-$ than losing-$--this also robs us of important information as to just how bad or good any subclass of tickets is, by unnecessarily killing the sample size...)...

after a few more months of "warts and all" results to look at, the picture will be clear and the answer to "what to leave in...what to leave out" will be much better than if we just go with our gut/wallet now...

on an experimental project like this...if you want to tail...tail small...and let intellectual curiosity (rather than $-based greed/fear) be your motivation...let the experiment unfold on its own, hip to the fact that in real life nothing moves in a straight line...everything toggles between over-performing and under-performing its true form...track it long enough and we know what that form is

[nash13]

I will try something similar for NBA when the season starts.

[nash13]

ATP Metz
Janowicz J.@1.78
Kamke T.@3.8
Lorenzi P.@6.1
Monfils G.@1.12
Sousa J.@1.92
Chardy J.@1.61

Izmir Challenger
Basic M.@2
Vorster T.@2.88
Marti Y.@3.35
Jaiziri M.@1.16
Pavic A.@2.06
Rudnev V.@4.5
Marchenko I.@1.3
Coric B.@1.18

Trnava Challenger
Cecchinato M.@1.85
Kubler J.@2.35
Haase R.@1.36
Veic A.@3
Mertl J.@4.92
Montanes A.@1.42
Rola B.@1.73

WTA Guangzhou
Cornet A.@1.92
Puig M.@2.42
Bacsinszky T.@1.44
Zhang K.@2.2

WTA Seoul
Gibbs N.@1.53
Kanepi K.@1.3
Kirilenko M.@2.24
Wickmayer Y.@2.93

WTA Tokio
Dellacqua C.@1.85
Jankovic J.@1.57
Suaez Navarro C.@1.15

Mekenes, Quito and Campinas will follow later

[nash13]

227-153
+1.5

[phokingjuice]

@fitguy. Nice analysis

[phokingjuice]

Nash, if you can pm me with an overview. Did some statistics in college couple years back but really fell off. I think this would be an interesting thing to look at