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stan/nish-stan @-178 wtf???
I'm a little pissed about today's bad performance. But this line looks like a complete joke!!!
I already hit stan -2 games @-125 for a few units.
WTF?? Nishi was up all night playing a 5 setter its gonna be hot tomorrow and Stan is hitting the ball well.
Am I a crack baby or is this a messed up line?
on pinny, swiss beergut went from 1.78 ==> 1.59
a tired tommy robredo took a set off him and played him tough in a tiebreaker. Idk if nishi wins but he will certainly take a set off wawrinka if he plays like he did against raonic
this is a tough match. I will add that Wawrinka has been at tempting odds this whole Open so it could be a 'trap'. Opening lines rarely lie in games like these. If it's showing nishi has a chance then he probably does. You have to think public money will be on Stan.
I know one thing for sure. The crowd will be behind Nishi and so will my money at +157. Nothing huge, yet. But I need to be watching this match rooting for Nishi. I hope it's a night game.
Fatigue is definitely worrisome for Kei backers though. Then again he did roll through his other competition and outlasted Raonic.
Nishi!!!!
Night match? Yeah.Originally Posted by brodie
Mr. us open dude: "Hey Joker and Murray, you guys take the day match we got Nishi and Stan for the night that ok??"
Nishi should have lost this match. Dude went to bed at like 6 this morning and probably slept till 1 or 2. He plays tomorrow at 3pm unless the stains take an extra long time to finish. He will be a zombie and its gonna be hot as a mo fo. This is a stanimal beat down if I've ever seen one.
Always remember guys..... The people that make these lines are pretty smart. It's not just one guy. Stand the type of guy who will take into consideration that "nishikori was up all night in a 5 set match, he must be tired" so I probably won't have to try that hard to beat him. Did you guys watch the Aussie open? Did you watch Nadal win a set injured? It's because Stans level dropped. He plays to his opponents level and every once in awhile he makes a great shot or two and forces a break point. Stan 2-0 and he's only 1.60 to open? That's the books saying Stan should have lost to Robredo... But he should win this match only because Nishikori is tired, but god help Wawrinka if nishikori somehow plays great. Nishikori probably has 3 sets in him max. It's possible Nishi wins
Gut says slam Stan, brain says stay away. Seems too easy
u right. I'm just hoping it gets pushed back so I can watch the whole match.
glad I waited too. line at +159 now and is sure to go up. probably gonna wait until right before the match. wouldn't be surprised if it touched +200
and sluggy aren't you the same guy that called stan a mental midget when you were backing robredo against him? isn't this the perfect match to fade a mental midget
Nishi always a threat to retire due to blisters
It's gonna be hot for both guys. Nishikori's 5 setter wasn't the most taxing match ever. He didn't have to engage in a ton of long rallies or anything. It was long time-wise, but physically I don't think it was that draining relatively to say the five setter Cilic and Simon played today. I'd be more concerned just with his foot in general still. Otherwise, if Kei can get into Wawrinka early and show him that he's not going to roll over ... watch out here. Wawrinka certainly is not immune to cracking under the conditions and remember, he got banged up just a bit in the Robredo match too.
Humidity BTW is not going to be that big a factor. Under 50%. The other day it was 80% when guys were dying.
I think Stan is a mental midget compared to Robredo. Tommy should have won that match. My reasoning is more on a tired Nishi. Dude is frail!! Stan could blow it but I think given Nishi's late night escapades and super hot weather, that will really have him with little in the tank for tomorrows match. I guess I'm more surprised with the -2 games for Stan.
And as Matt pointed out Stan is a very tough out in a 5 set match on a hard court. I just cant see suishi man going more than 4 and I dont see him winning in 4 or 3.
And sorry for coming off like a dick with the day night thing. I bet like crap today and chased. Pissed at myself.
This is my biggest wager thus far. I got Stan at -160. 1600 to win 1000. I watched all of their matches thus far. The statuesque Raonic (who cannot break an opponent to save his life) was a great matchup for Nish and playing at night helped him get through. His day match against the clay courter Mayer was a joke. If Mayer had been a hard court player (or just played half decent) Nish would have had a hell of a time surviving that match under those conditions. Now he goes up against Stan, who has played one less match than him, after playing a 5 setter that ended at 2:30 am. If Stan takes the 1st set it will be lights out for Nish. Can't see him winning 3 out of the next 4, even if he calls upon his inner Chang.
The only worry with Stan is that he is a head-case, but few tennis players aren't. Nish himself is a head-case of sorts. I can see him retiring if he falls behind early, which is why I played the ML.
I think everybody better get on Stan tonight before the odds rise. Nish always has some injury prob. I won't be surprised one bit if he ends up retiring in the match from some random injury. Nish coming off a long 5 setter vs a top player like this. I just can't see him pulling this off. I'm in and in big.
I'm probably not betting anything on this match, maybe a total if I see something I like - but damn it is going to be Suicide Watch for the World if Wawrinka loses. Good luck fellas.
Thanks, EP. Suicide watch? No. An end to my gambling career? Perhaps. But I can live with it. Stan imploding is my only worry, otherwise I'm confident. People forget, Stan was on his way to beating Fed at Wimbledon when he got sick in the middle of the match (and had to take some pills). I was watching. He was playing fantastic before the wheels came off. This guy in a major is a tough out (when healthy and motivated). I've been reading his post match comments and Nishe's, totally different mindsets. Nish says he hopes to be OK for the match tomorrow because the last time he played a 5 hour match he was dead afterwards, while Stan feels stronger (mentally) for having overcome his physical issues against Robredo.
that sums it up perfectly. i was big on murray over tsonga and today i was big on monfils over dimitrov, i was all set to pound stan but then i saw the odds and smelled something really fishy. whether he wins or not, this is a nishikori line put out by vegas imo. still going to go with stan albeit small
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Raonic played very poorly in sets 3/4/5. He was not a danger to break at all in that span and his lack of fitness was very apparent. Stan is in substantially better shape than Raonic, and Nishi had the long/late match to recover from. If he can recover quickly, this match could be tighter than the line indicates, as Nishikori is hitting the ball very well right now.
Only Reason Wawrinka beat Robredo was Tommy not have a special thing about him and more importantly his BH is horrible, really horrible. Still RObredo served for set @5-4 in set 1 and served for set 3 in tiebreak at 6-4.
Nishi is better this year than he was in 2012 where he lost 2 games. If Nishi is healthy/not injured he can win. Never think about tired angle for Nishi that does not work for the Japan robot.
I was on Tommy and he should have won one of those sets (1st or 3rd). But, Stan had 4 days off and was rusty. It took him a while to find his game and still he was able to do enough to thwart Robredo. I'm not banking on the tired angle but it is an angle, especially when it's a guy who is not used to playing long matches. And it is not just physical but mental fatigue. Nish might be better than 2012 but so is Stan. Again, go back to Nishi's match against Mayer (under the hot sun), where he was fading fast (getting broken, losing focus) against an inferior opponent and tell me if fatigue is not a factor.
Wawrinka could throw any day of the week, sure, but if he plays his game and puts the pressure on he'll give Nish a lot more trouble from the baseline than Raonic. The head-to-head was 2 stomps in a row, could be chance, could be a bad matchup for nish, which it kind of looks like for me (as long as wawa stays mentally in it). Prefer spread in case wawa does throw. Nish tired is a bonus.
Yes, but now that I think about it, I think Nishikori is gonna have a hell of a time with all that Alaric acid build up after a 4 hour match... In the 4th set he was signalling to his box that his legs were jelly. He hasn't played over 2 hours in two months. That big match last night would be like if one of us played basketball or hockey for the first time in ages... He's gonna be stiff as all heck in set 1
Wasn't impressed with Nishikori the other day, Raonic was terrible and gifted the match to the Jap. Stan brings his A-game and he's done for. whether Stan will bring his A-game, that begs the question.
Nishikori's right ankle seems to be a problem + he's not the most consistent player on earth. Logic dictates Stan ML but line is too low for my taste. going to stay away
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@Fox
Agree with you on Stan line , if it was 1.70 , i would bet on him ... line now is too small for a 3 set match
Nishikori's ankle is not a problem. He has worn that brace for a while as a.preventative tool. It's the foot/toe he had a cyst removed from that is still being treated and maybe effecting him, but his movement looked just fine to me.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 09-03-14 at 09:21 AM.
looks like the humidity will taper under 50% but they are playing in the hottest part of the day mid afternoon could go to 87. I think stan has to work harder
than kei to chase balls down so he could be vulnerable today.
Last edited by Snowball; 09-03-14 at 09:23 AM.
I see humidity decreasing all day according to weather.com. All under 50% - 50 or 60 is not terrible. And 86 is warm, but try 100 in Texas LoL .. it will be tough still, but IMO not nearly as bad as the last few days.
Whether it's ankle, foot, back, or whatever Nish always has something physcially wrong with him. He beats Federer earlier in Miami and gives Djokovic a walkover next match. Battles with Ferrer in Madrid and then has Rafa on the ropes but as usual gets hurt. This guy absolutely cannot be trusted after playing a 5 set match. Stan the man is only losing to Djoko/Fed in the non clay slams now.
Nishikori screwed me when I took Raonic. He wont screw me against Wawrinka. Wawrinka is playing great this year. The line reflects that. Kei went to 5 sets against raonic and raonic serve was off as well.
Wawa will crumble at the first sign of adversity.
Nishi!
I've had a good tourney. Still up a decent amount. If I lose with the Stananimal (-2 games) I'm done this tourney.
Robredo bad beat
monfils/dimitove over 3.5 sets bad beat
and a few others have me heated. Or maybe I just made bad bets...
Sure budy, I too was big on whatever won.
This thread is full of a bunch of experts who don't think Vegas saw the Nishi Raonic match too. According to this thread... Nishi's "legs are jelly", Nishi's got an ankle problem, Nishi's got a cist problem. Oh also he's a professional athlete, but apparently can't recover and will not be able to play for more than a few sets.
The amount of times I've heard people go on and on in here about how someone is going to be exhausted because of a grueling 5 setter, and how many times it actually seems to impact the player in the next match is maybe like 10% of the time. Especially for these grand slams. If Nishi had blisters or whatever he had last match, trust me when millions of dollars of prize money are on the line the best doctors in the world are patching him up to the point it will be a non-issue. Also, his legs are going to be fine. Fatigue won't be a factor for him anymore than Stan.
Wawa can still steam roll him, but it won't be because you were able to sense some injury or fatigue in that Nishi match that Vegas didn't notice. That's why the line is where it is. It's because Vegas doesn't over react like our simple human brains do. This is a grand slam. You will see quality tennis from both players.
Anyone know where I can look at odds for most aces in match?
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