[greatd]

Just a forum to chat about the bets i like, and people to let me know their thoughts. I am by no means a pro, just someone who keeps an eye on the game. The picks will only be on mens tennis, as i have found ladies tennis to be a lottery! Thoughts and comments most welcome!

So for US Open day 1...

Mathieu to bt Muller 0.5u @ 2.88

There are very few professional tennis players that should be an underdog to Gilles Muller! PH is probably past his best, and hasnt been in the best of form, but he has been playing a decent level. Muller has been bullying average players in the challengers. PH is def not a lock, but at this price i dont mind him at all.

Benneteau to bt Paire 1u @ 1.55

You never want to bet on a game involving a pair of frenchies, but i think this game warrants a closer look. Paire has gone backwards over the past year and is not playing particularly well at the moment, getting rolled by Steve Johnson & Robin Haase in his last 2 games. Benne on the other hand is playing pretty solid, he took out Jano & Wawa, before being knocked out by Ferrer in the Semis in Cincinnati. I feel Bene is playing well enough to get home here.

Stepanek to bt Bachinger 1u @ 1.29

Bachinger has come through quallies here, winning all his games in straights, and Stepanek has lost his last 4 games in a row. But even after all this, you just feel that his quality will come through in 5 here, as Bachinger wont have the game to hurt him. The old war horse always seems to get it done against average players.

Carreno-Busta to bt Beck 0.5u @ 2.21

CB is a clay courter no doubt, and typically the clay courters struggle at the US open, but to me CB is better than your average clay player and has enough game to beat Beck. Beck has also come through quallies this week which included 3 set wins over Ram & Singh. I feel that CB is a much better player, and at these odds im happy to have a dip on him.

[greatd]

Was bleak about Benne as he had so many chances in that game, but i suppose that serves me right for bettign on a game with 2 frenchies. Stepanek upset me, as i was the least happy about that one because of the short price, and i got on anyway. Must learn, cant be on Stepanek when he’s so short, even against a muppet like Bachinger.


1) Benneteau to bt Paire 1u @ 1.55 | -1u
2) Stepanek to bt Bachinger 1u @ 1.29 | -1u
3) Carreno-Busta to bt Beck 0.5u @ 2.21 | +0.61u
4) Mathieu to bt Muller 0.5u @ 2.88 | +0.94u

Record: 2-2-0
Staked: 3u
Result: -0.45u

[fitguy67]

well-formatted and well-presented thread...

one constructive comment though, before the pedantic purists jump you for it...be careful with the very-specific "game/set/match" terminology...in almost any other sport the word "game" is a reasonably-acceptable descriptor to the "whole event"...but in tennis this is NOT the case...victory in a game hopefully leads to a victory in a set which hopefully leads to victory in the "whole event" = the match

i look forward to your day#2

[greatd]

well-formatted and well-presented thread...

one constructive comment though, before the pedantic purists jump you for it...be careful with the very-specific "game/set/match" terminology...in almost any other sport the word "game" is a reasonably-acceptable descriptor to the "whole event"...but in tennis this is NOT the case...victory in a game hopefully leads to a victory in a set which hopefully leads to victory in the "whole event" = the match

i look forward to your day#2

Cheers, will clean it up a bit, thanks.

[greatd]

US Open Day 2:

Gasquet to bt Istomin 1u @ 1.4

The Frenchy's are coming thick and fast for me at the moment. Outside of Tsonga, Gasquet is the most consistant, even though he does go missing against players he shouldnt from time to time (most recently Pospisil, Estrella, Kyrgios). But, he is still a solid hard courter with arguably the best backhand int the game and should account for Istomin today, a player who has not been in great form, having lost his last 3 on the trott (to Cilic, Lu and Young).

Nishikori to bt Odesnik 1u @ 1.3

Obvioulsy Nishi's fitness is the only thing to explain this ridiculous price. Just make sure you take it with a bookie that voids the bet if the match is incomplete. If Nishi sees out the match, he will romp home in my opinion, as Odesnik is bang average.

Del Bonis to bt Rubin 1u @ 1.36

Del Bonis is not (and never should be) considered a lock, but i like him today against the American wildcard. Let’s face it, he is a level above the teenager. Rubin is predominantly a futures player, that has lost all 3 of the games he has played outside of futures this year (2 x challenger 1st rounds and Winston Salem 1st round). Del Bonis has hardly been setting the world alight with his form, but he has been playing a different calibre of opponent.

[greatd]

US Open Day 2 cont...

Struff to bt Kukushkin 0.5u @ 2.75
To me this is a 50/50 game. Struff has beaten many more top 100 (5 vs 3) players on hard courts this year, including Kukushkin in Sydney. (others were Devaarman, Vesely, Benneteau, Rosol vs Kukushkin’s 3, Gabashvili, Pospisil & Haase). I am happy to have a nibble that he rolls him again at 2.75.

Tursunov to bt Gonzalez 0.5u @ 3.4

Tursunov has been out of action since Wimbledon and his ranking has slipped from inside the top 30 to 58 currently. His odds have changed dramatically in the past few hours, so look out for an injury here, so again, take with a bookie that only pays on completion of the match. Tursunov will be rusty, but that price is far too high not to get involved if there is no injury.

[fitguy67]

hey great,

it's obvious your bet-sizes will be in chunks of 0.5u...

so the minimum bet-size is 0.5u...and the maximum we could expect is ______u

(i suspect your answer will be either 4u or 5u)

_____________

day #2 has all the makings of a really nice one for you

[greatd]

Hey Fit,

My starting bank is 20u, so 1u is 5%. Most of the bets i place will either be (Full bet) 1u or (half bet) 0.5u. It roughly goes 1u for a favourite and 0.5u for an outsider. I might from time to time bet a double bet (2u) but not often. Hope this helps.

[greatd]

Sho, was looking at a full house until Tursunov went missing rather spectacularly. It was a bit frustrating because i really liked Garcia-Lopez to beat Lu, but got swayed by Lu's performance last week so i decided to stay away. But hindsight is 20/20, if he had lost i would be patting myself on the back for a good miss. Anyway, you cant be upset with a winning day, it also puts me back in the green overall.

5) Gasquet to bt Istomin 1u @ 1.4 | +0.4
6) Nishikori to bt Odesnik 1u @ 1.3 | +0.3
7) Del Bonis to bt Rubin 1u @ 1.36 | +0.36
8) Struff to bt Kukushkin 0.5u @ 2.75 | + 0.88
9) Tursunov to bt Gonzalez 0.5u @ 3.4 | -0.5

Record: 6-3-0
Staked: 7u
Result: +0.98u
Yield: 14%

[greatd]

US Open Day 3:

Lopez to bt Dodig 1u @ 1.665

To me this price is crazy, Lopez is ranked just outside the top 20, and has been a good hard court player for some time now. Sure he has the ability to go missing when he shouldnt, but he also rolls good players. He is in good form at the moment, beating Raonic, Berdych and Bautista before being taken out by Federer in Toronto 2 weeks ago. Dodig is no mug, and has the ability to turn it on, but he should be a lot longer than he is to beat a player of Lopez's calibre, especially in 5 sets. I got on this one last night because i was worried that the price would more than likely shorten from the level. I see that this seems to be a popular pick in this forum as a few other people have eluded to it already, so hopefully there will be a few of us shouting this one home.

[greatd]

US Open Day 3 cont...

Chardy to bt Kavcic 1u @ 1.4

Another Frenchie! Chardy can of course be erratic, and go missing for no apparent reason. That being said, he should have the goods to get a win over Kavcic as he looks like he is beginning to get some of his form back, when he pushed Kohlschreiber to 3 in Cincinnati and took care of Falla in the 1^st round. Kavcic has always been a fringe player for me, he has won 3 challenger tourni’s this year, but if you look at the list of players he beat, you would not be surprised why. He has only beaten 2 decent hard courters this year in the form of Nieminen in Sydney and Young in the first round here, and both are not in the same class as Chardy (IMO).

Sousa to bt Dancevic 1u @ 1.55

Sousa has become a very decent player on the tour, and has broken into the top 50 after having such a good year last year. 2014 hasn’t been as good for him, and he has not been rock solid on hard courts this year, but he has been knocked out by Murray, Gulbis and Janowicz (7-6 in the 3^rd) in his last 3 tourni’s. In contrast, Dancevic is average at best. He has been in decent for this year, but he is in no way a world beater. The only half decent player he has beaten this year has been Karlovic and that was on grass. Im backing Sousa to get the job done here.

[greatd]

US Open Day 3 final pick:

Berlocq to bt Sela 0.5u @ 3.25

Berlocq is an out and out clay courter who has not won a match on the hard courts this year. so on the face of it, not a great bet. But when you look a little closer, they were all against top 100 players. He has some serious scalps on clay this year in the form of Ferrer and over Berdych in the final of Oeiras. His only hard court game since then was a loss to Janowicz, where he couldn't contend with the power hitting and big serve. Sela at 5'9" doesn't possess either of those things and I reckon Berlocq has a much better chance against a pusher. For me the price is too high here, that's why I'v had a small play.

[SlapZed]

What do you think about Darcis and Lacko? Really like them as dogs

[greatd]

What do you think about Darcis and Lacko? Really like them as dogs

Darcis the better bet of the two, as he is coming back to form after a long lay off, and he has been steam rollling the futures guys (always good for the confidence :-) ). He didnt drop a set in the quallies and looked pretty good in doing so. Klizan can blow hot and cold. Its a 50/50 for me, so dog might be appealing if you betting it, but id like a slightly higher price to get me onto it.

I dont really have a feel for Lacko/Thiem. Lacko is an average player that plays to his ranking. I dont know much about Thiem, except that he seems to be happier on clay. He lost in 3 sets in his last to hard court games, to Simon and Ginepri. If he is as good as people are making him out to be, then he should take this, but its a no bet for me.

GL

[fitguy67]

congrats to everyone on Flopez at anything but a "complete match necessary" book...and thanks for the call GD

[SlapZed]

Darcis the better bet of the two, as he is coming back to form after a long lay off, and he has been steam rollling the futures guys (always good for the confidence :-) ). He didnt drop a set in the quallies and looked pretty good in doing so. Klizan can blow hot and cold. Its a 50/50 for me, so dog might be appealing if you betting it, but id like a slightly higher price to get me onto it.

I dont really have a feel for Lacko/Thiem. Lacko is an average player that plays to his ranking. I dont know much about Thiem, except that he seems to be happier on clay. He lost in 3 sets in his last to hard court games, to Simon and Ginepri. If he is as good as people are making him out to be, then he should take this, but its a no bet for me.

GL

The MF Darcis chokes the game away serving for match and cant hold it. He will likely lose the fifth set since he have few matches behind him after his comeback FML

[fitguy67]

The MF Darcis chokes the game away serving for match and cant hold it. He will likely lose the fifth set since he have few matches behind him after his comeback FML

i'm on both dogs u mentioned above, darcis and lacko...

yes, Darcis choked in both the 3rd and 4th sets...but time for a little perspective...

1. being Belgian is, geographically speaking, about as close to French as you can get without being French...

which brings us to the most important thing...

2. Klizan IS french

_________

it ain't over till the final point is won (or just as likely...given away)

tennis should be sponsored by various major brands of throat lozenges (Sucrets, Vicks, Halls...)

[SlapZed]

i'm on both dogs u mentioned above, darcis and lacko...

yes, Darcis choked in both the 3rd and 4th sets...but time for a little perspective...

1. being Belgian is, geographically speaking, about as close to French as you can get without being French...

which brings us to the most important thing...

2. Klizan IS french

_________

it ain't over till the final point is won (or just as likely...given away)

tennis should be sponsored by various major brands of throat lozenges (Sucrets, Vicks, Halls...)

Yeah harsh beat, but hope lacko wins. Im upp for the day Malmö won me a little money

[greatd]

Wow that was a frustrating day. The book I took Lopez with only pay out on completion, and it looked like he was going to kick on and win from there, then Sousa was lucky to come home, it could have gone either way. Then it all fell to pieces, with a Chardy no-show, and Berlocq failing to close Sela out and in the end losing the match. But, we fight on.

10) Lopez to bt Dodig 1u @ 1.665 | push
11) Sousa to bt Dancevic 1u @ 1.55 | +0.55u
12) Chardy to bt Kavcic 1u @ 1.4 | -1u
13) Berlocq to bt Sela 0.5u @ 3.25 | -0.5u

Record: 7-5-1
Staked: 10.5u
Result: +0.03u
Yield: 0.3%

[greatd]

US Open Day 4:

Mayer to bt Ebden 1u @ 1.4

Mayer is a much more accomplished player than Ebden, he has come on in leaps and bounds from the clay courter of a few years ago, and Ebden, is an average player at best. He came through the first round against an out of sorts Kamke, but I think Mayer is a level above him here and 1.4 is an absolute gift. I took this yesterday, and see that the price has shortened in a bit now, but its still worth it.

[greatd]

Parlay: Raonic, Dimitrov, Lopez 1u @ 1.47

I dont usually play parlays, and especially not this short, but here i couldnt help myself. I can't see any of these 3 getting rolled here against the players they have been drawn against.

[greatd]

Some for today, and some for tomorrow, just taking the prices early...

Gulbis to bt Thiem 1u @ 1.3

Gulbis really seems to be coming into his own these days and he really is making a play for the top 10 in the rankings. I like him to go quite deep here this week. I think he will be eyeing up Berdych in the 4th round with some delight. Thiem is a decent player, but the youngster will come unstuck i think agaiunst a rampant Gulbis.

Fognini to bt Mannarino 1u @ 1.36

When he's bad hes horrible, but when he's good he's great. It just depends on which Fognini turns up. The great Fog has been turning up more and more, and i like him to get past a lack-lustre Mannarino here.

Carreno-Busta to bt Paire 0.5u @ 3.8

When at his best Paire is a very decent player, i just dont think he is there at the moment. He powered through nicely against Benne in R1, but the legs will be tired from that marathon. Carreno is a better player than this price suggests, and if he starts well, Paire might well struggle to get up in the heat.

[greatd]

and finally for today...

Garcia-Lopez to bt Querrey 0.5u @ 2.75

GL has come on in leaps and bounds over the past 18m and really is pulling his all round game together. Querrey on the other hand has had no form to speak of until last week, and this price is not a fair reflection of where the two are in terms of ability and form.

Seppi to bt Kyrgios 0.5u @ 2.5

Seppi was impressive in taking care of Stako in the first round in straights. He is strongest on hard courst, and the quick surface will suit his game. Kyrgios was tiring towards the end of his Youzhny win, and he needed 2 tie breaks to get rid of him. I like the odds on Seppi to edge it here.

[lucasdawg]

^ ive got similiar plays for today! hopfully on the money

[greatd]

^ ive got similiar plays for today! hopfully on the money

Lets hope so! GL

[greatd]

Hmm, got sucked into a few too many plays yesterday I think. It was the two I added last that burned me, and in straights no less! Was stoked with the Carreno-Busta pick though, means a profitable day! Also had Raonic in the first leg of the parlay coming home.

14) Garcia-Lopez to bt Querrey 0.5u @ 2.75 | -0.5u
15) Carreno-Busta to bt Paire 0.5u @ 3.8 | +1.4u
16) Mayer to bt Ebden 1u @ 1.4 | +0.4u
17) Seppi to bt Kyrgios 0.5u @ 2.5 | -0.5u

Record: 9-7-1
Staked: 13u
Result: +0.83u
Yield: 6.4%

[greatd]

Cilic to bt Anderson 1u @ 1.45

Anderson has been shaky and I don't think he can roll Cilic here.

Bautista-Agut to bt Mannarino 1u @ 1.35

Bautista will be far too strong.

Gasquet to bt Monfils 0.5u @ 2.5

Even money game, value is for gasquet.

[greatd]

I was shocked at the Gulbis result, going missing after being 2 sets to 0 up! Thiem was 100-1 at that point. Oh well, thats betting i suppose.


18) Gulbis to bt Thiem 1u @ 1.3 | -1u
19) Fognini to bt Mannarino 1u @ 1.36 | -1u
20) Parlay: Raonic, Dimitrov, Lopez 1u @ 1.47 | +0.47u
21) Cilic to bt Anderson 1u @ 1.45 | +0.45u
22) Bautista-Agut to bt Mannarino 1u @ 1.35 | +0.35u
23) Gasquet to bt Monfils 0.5u @ 2.5 | -0.5u

Record: 12-10-1
Staked: 18.5u
Result: -0.4u
Yield: -2.2%

[greatd]

Raonic to bt Nishikori 1u @ 1.85

The big serving Canadian has been looking good this week, his serve will be difficult to break. It will be a close game and Nishikori has been good, but at that price i'm happy to have a bet.

Wawrinka to bt Robredo 1u @ 1.5

Robredo seems to be a popular pick, but for me Stan is the smart play here. He is a much better player and has definately come to prominence since his grand slam win.

[HatersGonnaHate]

If by prominence you mean more people know who he is then Yes but if you mean playing better. Not really. Stan has had an average year other than The Australian open. Match is a no bet for me but good luck

[greatd]

Raonic just couldnt close it out for me. ahhhh.

24) Raonic to bt Nishikori 1u @ 1.85 | -1u
25) Wawrinka to bt Robredo 1u @ 1.5 | +0.5u

Record: 13-11-1
Staked: 20.5u
Result: -0.9u
Yield: -4.4%

[greatd]

Dimitrov to bt Monfils 1u @ 1.75

I like Dimitrov to get past Monfils and take out Federer. Monfils has been playing really well, but i think Dimitrov will be one step too far for the flamboyant Frenchman.

[greatd]

If by prominence you mean more people know who he is then Yes but if you mean playing better. Not really. Stan has had an average year other than The Australian open. Match is a no bet for me but good luck

Hmm, with all due respect, i'm not sure i agree with you there. Aussie open aside, He lost in the Quarters at Wimbledon to Fed in 4 sets, He beat Fed in the final of MonteCarlo Masters, knocking out Ferrer (on clay) in the process, and won in Chennai too. During the year, he has beaten, Djoko, Raffa, Fed, Ferrer and Berdy and currently sits at a career high of 4.

How is this not the best year of his life??

[greatd]

Nishikori to bt Wawrinka 0.5u @ 2.75

Tough game to call, both have been good, and both have question marks about going the distance. I'm taking the dog here, but only in smalls.

[Bumdeal]

love it, GL sir