[Snowball]

Andy is generally better than Tsonga and almost always beats him.
Andy has extra rest after Gasquet retired without play.
Tsonga had difficulty with Chardy. One tiebreaker and a 6-4.
Tsonga had difficulty with Vasselin. One tiebreaker.
Tsonga only breezed through Djoker because real Djoker wasn't there.

Andy -3 over Tsonga.

[poet]

Good logic and you could probably add ten more reasons to back Andy but:

Andy (these days) is a bigger chocker than Tsonga and Tsonga served lights out in the 1st set, so we lost.