[Simon Gruber]

BERRER over Sock (4.5) ***

Sock has been on fire lately, but I get the feeling that this will be close.

Other plays:

SAM GROTH over Sela (2.70ish) **

J DUCKWORTH over Steve *

M RUSSELL over Beaver Boy (4.5ish) ***

T SMYCZECH over Chardy (2.6ish) *

D ISTOMIN over Jackass (2.5) ****

also looking into RUSTY over Rinko, fading Venus Williams, and I'll probably find a way to fade that Muguruza thead.

[brodie]

I'm not playing any ATP dogs today because there is too much good chalk out there. But from what you listed I like Istomin, Lleyton, and maybe Michael Muscles Russell

[Olemiss_Rebfan]

Russell over Sam?????? Sam has pretty much made easy work out of him in there head to head.. Am i missing something?

[Chaz22]

What about Duck-man? he won some challenger couple of days ago, can he beat not-a-good-Johnson? in 2.9 there is some value right?

[brodie]

Russell over Sam?????? Sam has pretty much made easy work out of him in there head to head.. Am i missing something?

Earlier this year Russell made a run and lost me a huge chunk of cash. Cant remember what tourney (90% sure it was hard court), but he had 3 straight upsets and one of them was over lleyton hewitt... so now i dont bet against him.. also Queerey isnt a guy that I trust at all

[Chaz22]

I think Russel has something between no chance and a very very small chance in winning today.
Im looking at that Estrella guy somehow....he won Gasquet and managed to get a set from in-form Tomic (yeah it was in high altitude, but still) and he's playing dumbfuk Kamke who has reached some good results....but on clay, so this will be his first match on hardcourts....
Dunno, smells like a battle. So 3+ odds look quite nice on Estrella.

[Chaz22]

I agree with Berrer's chance. Sock will at some points play like a stinkin' sock and here being a huge favourite will not help him

And....last but no the least of today's dogs is of course Jaziri. That's right, he is very unstable and ofcourse is not so skilled as that stupid old chech-ass but here i am actually more betting against Radek, who can easily lose if he sees some resistance and does not feel the jumping mood in him. Some credit to Jaziri for winning Stakshit and he may give us some pleasent surprise.

GL

[Simon Gruber]

Estrella is well under 3.00 which makes it questionable for me. I think the clay vs hard court thing is being given too much weight in a lot of these threads.

I also wouldn't sleep on the Smyczek play. He made it to the 3rd round of the US Open last year and if he doesn't win this match he's guaranteed to have to play through qualifying to get into the main draw. Those points are very important for him, whereas Chardy hasn't played since he lost to Cilic at Wimbledon - and who knows if he'll show up today. The odds aren't as juicy as I'd like but it's worth a small investment I think. Also, he gets the night match on center court, which means he also gets the crowd - definitely a good thing for backing Smyczek tonight. I tried that angle last week in Atlanta with him and didn't work but I'm happy to go for it again.

[Chaz22]

I got Estrella for 3.04 in Matchbook, and i agree with Smyczek, he can definetly beat Chardy today, but odds are not good for this as it is almost a 50/50ty match

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Berrer is a bad choice. Lost a Challenger Final Sunday & has the quick turnaround with travel & a surface switch. On top of that, he's pretty poor on the surface as well st this level.

[mrlif1]

Estrella is well under 3.00 which makes it questionable for me. I think the clay vs hard court thing is being given too much weight in a lot of these threads.

I also wouldn't sleep on the Smyczek play. He made it to the 3rd round of the US Open last year and if he doesn't win this match he's guaranteed to have to play through qualifying to get into the main draw. Those points are very important for him, whereas Chardy hasn't played since he lost to Cilic at Wimbledon - and who knows if he'll show up today. The odds aren't as juicy as I'd like but it's worth a small investment I think. Also, he gets the night match on center court, which means he also gets the crowd - definitely a good thing for backing Smyczek tonight. I tried that angle last week in Atlanta with him and didn't work but I'm happy to go for it again.

interesting insight on smyczek.

[plankton43]

I think Berrer is a bad choice. Lost a Challenger Final Sunday & has the quick turnaround with travel & a surface switch. On top of that, he's pretty poor on the surface as well st this level.

What about Berrer +4.5? I'm thinking he will keep it close.

[EaglesPhan36]

Honestly I would not touch anything in that one, Berrer is just as likely to be fatigued as he is to compete well. Don't see an edge personally, not that Sock generally kills guys - but the set up is not my cup of tea.