1. #1
    matt1216
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    My POD..... Look for this while you still can

    Donskoy ML 2.80 x 10 units



    So this is my largest wager so far, I sat here this morning trying to think of a play, I saw Donskoy I said"I've never seen this guy play in South America befor" then the wheel started turning in my head. This hardcourt suits Donskoy, his serve speed will definately benifit here. I also asked myself, "why is everyone on Gonzalez?" Most of TI and oddsportal and I'm sure 80% of the public is on Gonzalez... For what reason? Gonzalez likes the clay... Sure he had a couple nice wins vs dodig and Mannarino on hardcourt but that was on a "slow hardcourt" closer to clay conditions.... So I started digging more, apparently Donskoy is only 40 points shy of the US open, All the reasons for Donskoy to give it his all real quick befor the US open. Gonzalez hasn't been in form and he has the home court today but that is all. Barring a major fix, what am I missing here? If anything I think it could be fixed for Donskoy win.


    GL

  2. #2
    matt1216
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    as well guys:

    Sela 15 PTs short
    Polansky 30 PTs Short
    Wang 70 PTs short


    all guys with incentive here

  3. #3
    Kucera
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    I'm affraid that Gonzalez-Donskoy match might be fixed? Odds on Gonzalez from 2.12 to 1.50 on Pinnacle, that's some scary shit!

    +Eastern Europeans are more prone to match fixing than other players imo. After observations that JC made on Tomic-Dustov match I will probably skip this one...

  4. #4
    JC1186
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    It's important not to be paranoid Kucera. There's absolutely nothing to suggest a fix. Line movements like that happen. Especially given he's the home player. But in this case there's nothing suspicious at all.

  5. #5
    EaglesPhan36
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    I'm on this, but due to the double posting barrage .. Reducing my stakes by half.

  6. #6
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    I'm on this, but due to the double posting barrage .. Reducing my stakes by half.
    Lol

  7. #7
    bababooey13
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    I'm on this, but due to the double posting barrage .. Reducing my stakes by half.
    Lol

  8. #8
    bababooey13
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    TI tips favoring gonzalez 17 - 5. u got that going for you matthew

  9. #9
    brodie
    you got the juice now
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    so you're fading the better player at home to back donskoy who hasnt had a quality win since april?

    my lean would be gonzo here, but im not going to play this

  10. #10
    bababooey13
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    did donskoy open as a 1.79 favorite? if so, suggesting there's nothing suspicious here is a bit naive.

  11. #11
    brodie
    you got the juice now
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    Quote Originally Posted by bababooey13 View Post
    did donskoy open as a 1.79 favorite? if so, suggesting there's nothing suspicious here is a bit naive.
    agreed. 75% of the time when someone is the favorite and the public turns them into a dog they still end up winning

    this is more of a line bet than a tennis bet

  12. #12
    Dmoneytx
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    Quote Originally Posted by brodie View Post
    so you're fading the better player at home to back donskoy who hasnt had a quality win since april?

    my lean would be gonzo here, but im not going to play this
    I am pretty sure you didn't look up Gonzo's year on hard court or anything other than clay this year... IF you did, you wouldn't have made that post brodie...

    Is Gonzo the better player??? Really.. Gonzo has had ONE win since May 11th & that was against Muscles Russell, lol... Gonzo lost to a player 475 a few weeks ago & go hammered by Wang in bad straights in Wimbledon... Simon beat him 4,0,2 in French Open...

    I am NOT saying Donskoy is gonna destroy Gonzo later, but with the results Gonzo has shown in the last two months, he has looked like horrible, almost as bad as Donskoy... Should be an ultimate toss up match, NO clue who can play worse to lose, smh...

    BOTH not playing well, bol ev1...

  13. #13
    brodie
    you got the juice now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dmoneytx View Post
    I am pretty sure you didn't look up Gonzo's year on hard court or anything other than clay this year... IF you did, you wouldn't have made that post brodie...

    Is Gonzo the better player??? Really.. Gonzo has had ONE win since May 11th & that was against Muscles Russell, lol... Gonzo lost to a player 475 a few weeks ago & go hammered by Wang in bad straights in Wimbledon... Simon beat him 4,0,2 in French Open...

    I am NOT saying Donskoy is gonna destroy Gonzo later, but with the results Gonzo has shown in the last two months, he has looked like horrible, almost as bad as Donskoy... Should be an ultimate toss up match, NO clue who can play worse to lose, smh...

    BOTH not playing well, bol ev1...
    lol gonzo is the better player... i laughed really hard when you called Mate Pavic a "player 475" ... do you not know Pavic???: he's not some random challenger scrub like Bossell (who Donskoy just lost to on hard).... but when I called Gonzo the better player, I wasn't really referring strictly to the hard surface. Just in general, I dont let surface control my thoughts on who will win a certain match unless a player really excels on a certain court... and you bring up a few gonzo losses but if you look at the dudes donskoy has lost to then your argument starts to crumble

  14. #14
    Kucera
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC1186 View Post
    It's important not to be paranoid Kucera. There's absolutely nothing to suggest a fix. Line movements like that happen. Especially given he's the home player. But in this case there's nothing suspicious at all.
    Yeah I need to calm down I guess and not see monsters in the closet too much The lines at this tournament however are just all over the place in some matches, really weird...Still staying away from this match, BOL to all who are on Donskoy

  15. #15
    Hardcoar
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    If you're looking for a fix, just find the jew.

  16. #16
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by bababooey13 View Post
    TI tips favoring gonzalez 17 - 5. u got that going for you matthew
    except they all had kyrigos over nadal and hit about 80% or so

  17. #17
    Kucera
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    If you're looking for a fix, just find the jew.
    And I did, price a bit bad but won't complain if it hits

  18. #18
    bababooey13
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    Dear Client,

    Please note that we are no longer offering this match.


    Kind regards,


    Customer Service Department
    Pinnacle Sports





    ya, thats not suspiscous


  19. #19
    JC1186
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    I said nothing suspicious and it was in reference to Betfair's odds, movement and liquidity. Time will tell. If you think every time a movement like this happens, it's usually a fixed tennis match. Think again. 90%+ of the time it's nothing.

    The Sela match on the other hand lol. He's one dodgy mofo midget.

  20. #20
    Dmoneytx
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    Quote Originally Posted by brodie View Post
    lol gonzo is the better player... i laughed really hard when you called Mate Pavic a "player 475" ... do you not know Pavic???: he's not some random challenger scrub like Bossell (who Donskoy just lost to on hard).... but when I called Gonzo the better player, I wasn't really referring strictly to the hard surface. Just in general, I dont let surface control my thoughts on who will win a certain match unless a player really excels on a certain court... and you bring up a few gonzo losses but if you look at the dudes donskoy has lost to then your argument starts to crumble
    I never said Donboy was better than Gonzo.. I know who Pavic is, lol.. No world beater there, lol.. I simply said Gonzo hasn't won since May range & has lost almost all his matches on hard surface. Wang destroyed him at Wimbledon, does that say anything??? Wang destroyed him, hello????

    Simon wiped the floor with him & his best proclaimed surface is "clay". I said this match would be a toss up bro, BOTH playing horrible in my opinion. In general Gonzo prob is the better player, but if you do NOT factor in surface, that is crazy man...

    On fast court, this is a coin toss, on clay Gonzo wins... And to not factor in court speed is honestly stupid in my opinion. That has everything to do with outcomes of matches. At least IMO! Example, Ferrer on slow clay, a BEAST! On fast fast court??? He can lose to a no body with a big serve, huge difference in my mind

    My argument does not start to crumble.. Why?? Bec Gonzo hasn't beaten ONE Guy worth a crap since MAY! Michael Russell was it. That was all brotha.. Neither has Donboy, but Gonzo got his azzzzz wiped by Wang on a fast surface. Now at 8k feet, ball flying extremely fast in that altitude, on a hard court, should we just ignore all that??? You gonna tell me now that Gonzo is a good hard court player??? LOL...

    Like I said, "best of luck"...

  21. #21
    JC1186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dmoneytx View Post
    Wang destroyed him at Wimbledon, does that say anything??? Wang destroyed him, hello????
    By any chance, was that the same Wang who destroyed Youhzny in the next round?

    Hello!?

    Before you reply. Relax I'm just playing.

  22. #22
    hossa8110
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    got 2 flashscores up one has 2 to 2 and other one has donskoy up 3 to 1 which is it?

  23. #23
    Dmoneytx
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC1186 View Post
    By any chance, was that the same Wang who destroyed Youhzny in the next round?

    Hello!?

    Before you reply. Relax I'm just playing.
    I didn't reply to you JC. My post was to brodie...

    Sorry for the confusion bro

  24. #24
    Dmoneytx
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    Quote Originally Posted by hossa8110 View Post
    got 2 flashscores up one has 2 to 2 and other one has donskoy up 3 to 1 which is it?
    I show Donskoy just broke Gonzo to go UP 3-2 and now serving...

    I am not watching it live, just on flashscore for the moment...

  25. #25
    fcmb
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    DONSKOY is 3:2 up and serving

  26. #26
    Stokes36
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    And he just got broken for the set. No bueno

  27. #27
    Dmoneytx
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    Donboy gives back the break IMMEDIATELY, smh...

    Then barely holds at 4-5, but gets broken to lose the set 5-7, ouch...

  28. #28
    Stokes36
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    Then he breaks to open the set. lol. Dude is a roller coaster

  29. #29
    JC1186
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    Of the two it has been Gonzalez playing further from his best imo.

  30. #30
    felix_felicus7
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    Everyone knows where your plays are posted Matt. What's the need for the new threads? I thought your Original Tennis Picks thread was worth sticking with so you can let your strategy evolve & get satisfaction from possibly turning it around.

  31. #31
    Cappinpicks
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    Donskoy fixing so far

  32. #32
    Cappinpicks
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    !Viva Columbia!

  33. #33
    matt1216
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    Damn that one hurts

  34. #34
    tipsadontlikehim
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    i don't know if it was fixed but 2.80 was crazy odds
    too bad matt

  35. #35
    Zwong
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    Wanted to bet on Donskoy too but then i went to bettingkingdom and saw the comment section that he is supposedly a suspect fixer. Luckily, i ended up betting on Gonzales.

    http://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/bett...-donskoy/44527

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