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SirtySree's Wimbledon Picks (All Matches)
A bit bored so thought I'll throw up this thread. Coming first in the bracket contest for mens and 2nd for womens so thought I would add my thoughts here. Will only be posting for mens since womens too hard to pick as even though I am coming 2nd, already got a bunch wrong.
Anyways, I will have two separate lists with the 1st being for all matches and 2nd being for bets that I see value on.
Tsonga (against Querrey)
Raonic
Kubot
Kohl
Nish
Gasquet
Monfils
Kukushkin
Robredo
Nadal
Istomin
Wawrinka
Granollers
Hewitt
Lopez
Isner
Fed
Don't see a whole lot of great value today but here are a couple today.
Muller/Fed @3.25 TB
Sock @5, o3.5 sets @1.72, TB @2.37
Wont be personally playing any of the above. I will be playing tiebreaks though live on a bunch of matches depending on how they are going. Been successful with that so far.
Tsonga (against Querrey)
Raonic
Kubot
Kohl
Nish
Gasquet
Monfils
Kukushkin
Robredo
Nadal
Istomin
Wawrinka
Isner
Fed
11/14 yesterday so another good picking day although quite a few was chalk if they were made into bets.
Heres my plays for today with the 1st 3 being matches that was suppose to be for yesterday.
Granollers
Hewitt
Lopez
Novak
Tsonga
Mayer
Dimi
Stakhovsky
Murray
Berdych
Anderson
All picks made before looking at odds and again don't really see anything of value. The Mayer/Kuznetsov match is a toss up and the odds suggest that too. Stakhovsky was good value if u got him early but not much anymore. Berdych could be good value if he goes down a set early and betting tiebreaks there could be good too.
Granollers
Hewitt
Lopez
Novak
Tsonga
Mayer
Dimi
Stakhovsky
Murray
Berdych
Anderson
7/11. First sort of bad day for my bracket.
For today...
Nish
Raonic
Vesely
Nadal
Isner
Robredo
Fed
Wawrinka
See a couple of decent value. Robredo and Isner the main two. Vesely and Istomin are also decent but not as nice as the first two.
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Nish
Raonic
Vesely
Nadal
Isner
Robredo
Fed
Wawrinka
6/8. 24/33 overall so far.
Plays for today/tomorrow are...
Lopez
Nish
Fed
Nadal
Dimi
Novak
Couple of value picks that I see here. Dimi @4 to beat Murray is good and I feel if Murray does win this, he wins Wimbledon so could hedge with that. Cilic to take at least a set from Novak is also decent, I havent watched a lot of Novak in this tourney except for in the early rounds and he looked exactly the same as in Paris, which is flat and not himself but that was in the early rounds. Lastly there is decent value on Lopez but not to sure of it as it should be decided by tiebreaks.
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Wouldn't Lopez be too tired at this point?
This is his 4th week and he's playing doubles as well. Wawrinka sucks on grass but still.....
My trend has wawrinka ML, 3-1 sets
Warinka doesn't seem in that good of form. Lopez wins if he serves well I think, all the pressure is on Stan and his been a bit hit or miss since the aussie open
Na, Lopez has been doing this for a long time now and has played this much tennis many times in his career already. Lopez also relies on his serve a lot so he doesnt exert as much energy throughout a match as some of the other players and not to mention it is all on grass where the rallies are short. If it was on clay court, then fatigue could be an issue but that isnt the case here.Originally Posted by gaebiskon
The line is currently fluctuating way too much for ur trend to work. Plus if u r talking about ur old trend, in my opinion line movements and stuff like that r only good for early rounds as either way, it's going to b close at this point in the tourney.
The thing with Wawrinka is if he's on, he is unbeatable for anyone. Problem is he usually cant maintain it for 5 sets and with Lopez being a big server, this wont be a quick match so Wawrinka will cool down if he does catch fire at some point
I havent been betting much ML this tourney though and have mentioned a few times around the place that betting tiebreaks every set on big serving matches r the way to go on grass.
So for the Lopez/Wawrinka match, picking a winning wont b easy but the value does lie on Lopez. That being said, im not betting it and would most likely just continue to bet there will be a tiebreak each set.
It actually works best for later rounds when the books can focus on fewer matches... I think the over 3.5 sets is money... I gut dosnt want me to play Ranonic/nishikori over 3.5 though... Not sure why
Thanks for these, pretty clueless still on tennis, but love to read these
For today...
Kyrgios
Fed
will update properly after this
Lopez
Nish
Fed
Nadal
Dimi
Novak
Kyrgios
Fed
4/8. 28/41 overall.
I got Novak/Dimi in my original bracket and Dimi to win that. Bottom of my bracket is a bit more screwed but I had Fed, and I think he beats Raonic.
Dimi
Fed
See slight value in Dimi but not really anything to play or get excited over.
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ghislaine gave SirtySree 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.