[Noleafclover]

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice - you can't get fooled again.

But seriously, after last year's consecutive early round exit it has to be a major focus for him. It's still the worry, sure, but if he DOES get past those early rounds and into form as the surface wears down, he's got the easiest quarter.

And take a look at his overall wimbledon record, it IS boom or bust. First two years and last two years bust, other than that, boom. (5-4) http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/P...y=0&m=s&e=540#

edit: not sure if allowed to link to atp site - if not, mods please remove. if removed, record is searchable by playing activity -> tourney: wimby, years: all years.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's all about making it through the 1st couple rounds when that grass is so quick and slick. If he makes it past that, his chances grow immensely because the grass gets chewed up and plays slower and gives him a higher bounce that he likes.

[Noleafclover]

It's all about making it through the 1st couple rounds when that grass is so quick and slick. If he makes it past that, his chances grow immensely because the grass gets chewed up and plays slower and gives him a higher bounce that he likes.

It's still the worry, sure, but if he DOES get past those early rounds and into form as the surface wears down, he's got the easiest quarter.

Sounds like we agree the question approaches, "do we think he's more likely than not to make it past early rounds?"

[baconbets]

if youre looking for a sneaky hedge, try this

nadal to win quarter -110
nadal to lose in the quarters +500

taking both gives you approximately -220 that nadal makes it to at least the QF.

think about it this way: likely opponents for nadal in the QF will be raonic or nishikori. do you think you can get them at +500 to hedge out of the nadal quarter @ -110? if not, the "to lose in QF" @ +500 is a steal. youll be lucky to get them for anything over +250, considering klizan is +500 and is nowhere near as dangerous for nadal.

[MUHerd37]

I like his chances to win the quarter. He's had some good rest and he needed it.

[Noleafclover]

if youre looking for a sneaky hedge, try this

nadal to win quarter -110
nadal to lose in the quarters +500

taking both gives you approximately -220 that nadal makes it to at least the QF.

think about it this way: likely opponents for nadal in the QF will be raonic or nishikori. do you think you can get them at +500 to hedge out of the nadal quarter @ -110? if not, the "to lose in QF" @ +500 is a steal. youll be lucky to get them for anything over +250, considering klizan is +500 and is nowhere near as dangerous for nadal.

I think Nadal is in more danger early while he's out of form and the courts are faster, than against Raonic and Nishikori in the quarters. So that line of betting does not appeal to me.

I do see where you're coming from, but I think the odds on Raonic or Nish in the quarters v nadal would be higher than +250, and you're still risking Nadal going out early. I'd rather risk it at -110 (actually took at +100) than -220.