[BallsforTennis]

Hi, so I've been a by-stander for much of the past month having stumbled across this forum and having enjoyed myself and found Honeybadgers thread fairly insightful and useful for ideas, I felt / thought I'd share a couple of my own.

Hope to be of use and welcome well reasoned debates.

I use a 1 - 10 bracket rating system.



Tomorrow's finals. WTA HERT

Zheng (8 rating) vs Coco Van

Zheng is a small player with a huge heart, she has great movement across a grass court and she absorbs the pace of the ball really well, which is what grass allows a player to do. Zheng has a good low center of gravity and because the ball has a low and skidding bounce on the grass it favors her. It's perfectly in her strike zone, she can counter-punch perfectly on this surface and understands the dimensions of a grass-court as almost equally well as Simona Halep understands the dimensions of a clay-court, that's the quality of the angles she can manufacture.

Zheng is an aggressive counter-puncher, hits aggressive when on the back-foot and defending and ball-strikes, hitting clean and through the ball when on the front-foot. Zheng hits on the front foot, leaning forward, beautifully, perfect weight transfer everything... there's a solid reason she is a former Wimbledon semi-finalist... and completely out of NO FLUKE. Coco has a big serve and the occasional big forehand and yes she can over power opponents, however she will be matched in the power department from the baseline here. The advantage coco generally has over her opponents is she can smother them on their weak and pathetic 2nd serves, as most females possess weak second serves on the WTA, however on the grass Zheng is able to vary her second serve and find pace off of the surface with it. The edge Zheng has in this match-up is she is able to defend better on a grass court and hit balls when on the back foot, nice and deep and flat into the players body and the corners of the court. Her shot selection is ridiculously good on the grass and her ballstriking off the backhand sick. Coco has a bog-standard tactic off going inside out to the opponents backhand, however Zheng's backhand is her strength. So essentially... coco's go to shot, goes straight into Zheng's go to shot and Zheng can take her backhand down the line, letting it slide off her racquet and timing it with perfect weight transfer. Zheng will be looking to move cococ around the court, which coco, like many other american female tennis players, isn't the most adept to.

The most pinnacle deciding factor in what makes me overwelmingly confident Zheng will lift the trophy tomorrow is nerves however. She will be the much calmer and composed of the two players, as this isn’t unknown territory for Coco and the important of breaking through here is psychologically huge and she will know this. Her first ever WTA final, this will almost definitely and inevitably cause her to tighten up whenever faced with a big moment or a dose of adversity. In conclusion: Zheng will be able to play closer to her best and I don't see how Coco matches up well at all with her. The only way Coco can win is if she'll be able to 'redline' her game for the majority of the match and that isn't going to happen considering the magnitude of the occasion for her.
Fingers crossed this goes to plan.

[Honeybadger44]

Welcome!

I jumped on this one, as soon as I finished up reading your write-up. I hope you will keep those coming. Great read!

Good luck with you bets.

[BallsforTennis]

Welcome!

I jumped on this one, as soon as I finished up reading your write-up. I hope you will keep those coming. Great read!

Good luck with you bets.

Cheers. Wow, that convincing, huh? I forgot to put the price. 1.96 with Pinnacle.

Slightly shocked the market is going the other way, I guess that is product of a reaction to when you beat a player that beat Maria Sharapova at the french open.

[Honeybadger44]

Cheers. Wow, that convincing, huh? I forgot to put the price. 1.96 with Pinnacle.

Slightly shocked the market is going the other way, I guess that is product of a reaction to when you beat a player that beat Maria Sharapova at the french open.

Yup, very convincing

I am not surprised that market is going the other way. Coco is fairly new face on the big stage. And when you watch such player for the first time, you instantly fell in love with her serve and forehand. But then when you watch her 5-6 times, then you also get familiar with the flaws in her game. That being said, I think that money is coming in on Coco, because people got blinded by her big game so much, that they don't see her weaknesses

[BallsforTennis]

Benjy Becker (6 rating) vs Bautista Agut

Pinnacle 2.43

As we know, Becker won this title back in 2009, so he evidently enjoys the grass here and it's place that brings back happy memories. Atm he is playing like a seasoned grass-court vet, he's serving sliders, swingers, into the bodies, slices.... and each time is getting immediately into the front-foot in the points when on serve. Composed and constructing the one-two and three punch combinations perfectly, but not only that, giving opponents trouble with his forehand when engaging in longer stroke rallies.

Not known for his movement, Becker's movement on the grass is exceptionally good defensively and his compact groundstrokes suit the low-skidding surface. He is a double wammie on the grass, because not only does he possess a powerful and full of bundles in variety serve, he also is a rather small bloke, standing at 5,10. This allows him that low center of gravity, which a lot of the other players with big serves, don't have. Priceless perk.

He is matchtight Becker, played well even on the clay in Rome against Youzhny, so it's prime-time for him at a tournament he's won, his only ever ATP tour title.

Bautista came from the South American villages playing challengers to the main tour a year ago and he is definitely settled now, showing his game suits the slicker courts, however he lacks that natural and effortless weight of shot Becker has and will therefore find it a little more trouble to hold service games and get onto the frontfoot. I would favour Becker on a grass court in neutral rallies.

[BallsforTennis]

Yup, very convincing

I am not surprised that market is going the other way. Coco is fairly new face on the big stage. And when you watch such player for the first time, you instantly fell in love with her serve and forehand. But then when you watch her 5-6 times, then you also get familiar with the flaws in her game. That being said, I think that money is coming in on Coco, because people got blinded by her big game so much, that they don't see her weaknesses

I think people are placing too much significance on her serve and forehand, the serve and return of serve matchup aspect on grass may be critical, but not to a large enough extent to mean it can carry her the way Keys's serve and forehand carried her against Watson and Davis.

I think you're right, it is her big game, but more so I believe there's quite a lot of degenerate gambler thinking going on here, whereby people are just loading up on the 'oh wow, man, dude, she beat that Spaniard, that beat Sharapova'

I hope the price continues to swing, so I can possibly take Zheng to win a set also at decent odds.

[NguyenImproved]

Finally another decent thread with good insightful writing.

GL.

I could be wrong and I've never seen Coco play but I think Zheng will feel the pressure more. Much like Benneteau who is 0-9 in atp finals the pressure is felt more by players at the tail end of their careers. Young players may have initial nerves but not the mental hurdles that come from wanting something TOO much. They expect to have another chance somewhere along the line. Zheng must realise this is one of her best and possible last chances for a decent title (esp. on grass). Something to consider.

The mental aspects are fascinating but as I said I have no idea about most of these mid-range wta players. They are just too finicky and not something you can depend on to give a consistent performance - with few exceptions (ie. Sharapova etc)

Gl again. Look forward to more of these posts. Win or lose you add a lot of insight into the contest. It's like having another pair of eyes working for me.

[NguyenImproved]

Welcome!

I jumped on this one, as soon as I finished up reading your write-up. I hope you will keep those coming. Great read!

Good luck with you bets.

Happy days. The only two guys I've found worth reading on this forum are on the same thread.

We need to close this one off before it gets too crowded.

[BallsforTennis]

Finally another decent thread with good insightful writing.

GL.

I could be wrong and I've never seen Coco play but I think Zheng will feel the pressure more. Much like Benneteau who is 0-9 in atp finals the pressure is felt more by players at the tail end of their careers. Young players may have initial nerves but not the mental hurdles that come from wanting something TOO much. They expect to have another chance somewhere along the line. Zheng must realise this is one of her best and possible last chances for a decent title (esp. on grass). Something to consider.

The mental aspects are fascinating but as I said I have no idea about most of these mid-range wta players. They are just too finicky and not something you can depend on to give a consistent performance - with few exceptions (ie. Sharapova etc)

Gl again. Look forward to more of these posts. Win or lose you add a lot of insight into the contest. It's like having another pair of eyes working for me.

Cheers fella.

The women are emotionally a lot more complex than men to work out in tennis, I guess it sort of reflects general life too, but there you go.

Last 1-50 Activity - Jie Zheng - In Finals with Any Odds				Odds
	Jan 2 2012		Auckland WTA Int'l (NZL) Match Stats, Hard Court, Rank 48, Rating 3.70
	Final		Def. (4)Flavia Pennetta(20,4.17) (ITA) 2-6 6-3 2-0 ret. Recap Match Stats		$3.365
	May 17 2010		Warsaw WTA Premier (POL) Match Stats, Clay, Seed (5), Rank 26, Rating 2.99
	Final		Lost to Alexandra Dulgheru(32,3.15) (ROU) 6-3 6-4 Recap Match Stats		$2.380
	Aug 7 2006		Stockholm WTA Tier IV (SWE) , Hard Court, Seed (3), Rank NR, Rating 1.74
	Final		Def. (1)Anastasia Myskina(NR,3.17) (RUS) 6-4 6-1 Recap
	May 1 2006		Estoril WTA Tier IV (POR) , Clay, Seed (6), Rank NR, Rating 2.16
	Final		Def. (8)Na Li(NR,3.62) (CHN) 6-7(5) 7-5 ret. Recap Match Stats
	May 2 2005		Rabat WTA Tier IV (MAR) , Clay, Seed (6), Rank NR, Rating 3.97
	Final		Lost to (2)Nuria Llagostera Vives(NR,1.62) (ESP) 6-4 6-2 Recap
	Jan 10 2005		Hobart WTA Ch (AUS) , Hard Court, Rank NR, Rating 3.67
	Final		Def. (2)Gisela Dulko(NR,3.14) (ARG) 6-2 6-0 Recap
	Nov 1 2004		Shenzhen ITF (CHN) Match Stats, Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 2.87
	Final		Lost to (2)Shuai Peng(NR,4.04) (CHN) 3-6 6-1 6-3 Recap
	Sep 13 2004		Beijing ITF (CHN) , Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 1.95
	Final		Def. (2)Na Li(NR,4.85) (CHN) 6-4 6-4 Recap
	Dec 14 2003		Shenzhen ITF (CHN) , Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 1.98
	Final		Lost to Sesil Karatantcheva(NR,2.39) (KAZ) 7-5 1-6 6-3 Recap
	Dec 7 2003		Changsha ITF (CHN) , Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 1.51
	Final		Lost to Shuai Peng(NR,2.05) (CHN) 1-6 6-2 6-1 Recap
	Aug 17 2003		Bronx ITF (USA) , Hard Court, Rank NR, Rating 1.90
	Final		Def. Maria Kirilenko(NR,2.58) (RUS) 4-6 6-4 6-4 Recap
	Mar 23 2003		Redding ITF (USA) , Hard Court, Seed (7), Rank NR, Rating 0.60
	Final		Lost to Jana Nejedly(NR,3.30) (CAN) 7-5 7-6(4) Recap

You said you felt Zheng would feel pressure, as you can see she's won four WTA tour finals / trophies before and has been in this situation before, therefore being overwelmed with nerves isn't really something that you would logically or naturally expect her to be.

Coco has only even claimed minor ITF titles, which is the equivalent to a challenger title for a male and we all saw how Leo Mayer got on in his match with Fognini this year, baraged with nerves. It takes a player 2 - 3 attempts before they are able to finally play to the level that got them to that final in the first place, generally speaking.

Remember, Murray needed 3-5 grandslam finals.

[NguyenImproved]

Cheers fella.

The women are emotionally a lot more complex than men to work out in tennis, I guess it sort of reflects general life too, but there you go.

Last 1-50 Activity - Jie Zheng - In Finals with Any Odds				Odds
	Jan 2 2012		Auckland WTA Int'l (NZL) Match Stats, Hard Court, Rank 48, Rating 3.70
	Final		Def. (4)Flavia Pennetta(20,4.17) (ITA) 2-6 6-3 2-0 ret. Recap Match Stats		$3.365
	May 17 2010		Warsaw WTA Premier (POL) Match Stats, Clay, Seed (5), Rank 26, Rating 2.99
	Final		Lost to Alexandra Dulgheru(32,3.15) (ROU) 6-3 6-4 Recap Match Stats		$2.380
	Aug 7 2006		Stockholm WTA Tier IV (SWE) , Hard Court, Seed (3), Rank NR, Rating 1.74
	Final		Def. (1)Anastasia Myskina(NR,3.17) (RUS) 6-4 6-1 Recap
	May 1 2006		Estoril WTA Tier IV (POR) , Clay, Seed (6), Rank NR, Rating 2.16
	Final		Def. (8)Na Li(NR,3.62) (CHN) 6-7(5) 7-5 ret. Recap Match Stats
	May 2 2005		Rabat WTA Tier IV (MAR) , Clay, Seed (6), Rank NR, Rating 3.97
	Final		Lost to (2)Nuria Llagostera Vives(NR,1.62) (ESP) 6-4 6-2 Recap
	Jan 10 2005		Hobart WTA Ch (AUS) , Hard Court, Rank NR, Rating 3.67
	Final		Def. (2)Gisela Dulko(NR,3.14) (ARG) 6-2 6-0 Recap
	Nov 1 2004		Shenzhen ITF (CHN) Match Stats, Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 2.87
	Final		Lost to (2)Shuai Peng(NR,4.04) (CHN) 3-6 6-1 6-3 Recap
	Sep 13 2004		Beijing ITF (CHN) , Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 1.95
	Final		Def. (2)Na Li(NR,4.85) (CHN) 6-4 6-4 Recap
	Dec 14 2003		Shenzhen ITF (CHN) , Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 1.98
	Final		Lost to Sesil Karatantcheva(NR,2.39) (KAZ) 7-5 1-6 6-3 Recap
	Dec 7 2003		Changsha ITF (CHN) , Hard Court, Seed (1), Rank NR, Rating 1.51
	Final		Lost to Shuai Peng(NR,2.05) (CHN) 1-6 6-2 6-1 Recap
	Aug 17 2003		Bronx ITF (USA) , Hard Court, Rank NR, Rating 1.90
	Final		Def. Maria Kirilenko(NR,2.58) (RUS) 4-6 6-4 6-4 Recap
	Mar 23 2003		Redding ITF (USA) , Hard Court, Seed (7), Rank NR, Rating 0.60
	Final		Lost to Jana Nejedly(NR,3.30) (CAN) 7-5 7-6(4) Recap

You said you felt Zheng would feel pressure, as you can see she's won four WTA tour finals / trophies before and has been in this situation before, therefore being overwelmed with nerves isn't really something that you would logically or naturally expect her to be.

Coco has only even claimed minor ITF titles, which is the equivalent to a challenger title for a male and we all saw how Leo Mayer got on in his match with Fognini this year, baraged with nerves. It takes a player 2 - 3 attempts before they are able to finally play to the level that got them to that final in the first place, generally speaking.

Remember, Murray needed 3-5 grandslam finals.

Yes great stats. You know as an asian I lap that stuff up.

What I meant by Zheng feeling nerves relates to the fact she is at the tail end of her career. As you can see from the stats, she reached 10 of her 12 finals in a busy 3-year stretch from 2003-2006.

Her last three finals (including today) span EIGHT years. So she's definitely going to have the feeling that this is one of her last chances.

On the surface her two recent finals look great with one win over Pennetta and a loss.

Upon closer evaluation you'll see she got over an injured Pennetta (who if I recall went on a real tear in that tournament and was possibly burnt out by the final) and lost to a modestly performed player called Dulgheru in the other final.

Anyways I don't mean to say she's not a great chance. Her skill-set may be far superior to the other player in which case she should win. It's just that I wouldn't necessarily give her the mental edge if all else is equal.

In Murray's case I think you may be right. His first GS was for sure a case of nerves. But then again he only ever met former or current No.1s in each of his GS finals and the whole build up to slams is on another level.
Something which is not the case tomorrow.

Anyways I'm just bored and love discussing the psychological aspects of tennis. But the important thing is you need to cash! I'll be rooting for you.

[kenz]

Her first ever WTA final

Are you sure? I recall she played a damn good first set against Serena, served for the set but got broken in Stanford 2012

Anyway BOL of course

[kenz]

...

[BallsforTennis]

Never back against a big server on grass, absolutely awful call.

Just like the Federer vs Ferrer matchup, Ferrer tries to play on the frontfoot and dictate, but that's Federer's game too and his kick serve helps smother Ferrer who refuses to retreat behind the baseline. Same shit here. Zheng just like Ferrer is a small player and unable to reach up to the kick serves because her wing span is so short.

Awful call, embarrassing and sucks. Underestimated the American server, grass isn't complex, it's pretty simple, if one player has a big serve and the other doesn't then the other will always find it more difficult to hold their service games and pretty much require themselves to play flawless service games.

[BallsforTennis]

It's sad but grass-court tennis on the WTA tour will always be dominated now by the bigger beasts of the game. America are producing big, big athletes with decent service actions and most of the wta players aren't in the same weight division to compete.

Players standing below 5,7 just can't get to the kick serves and they will struggle to defend also as their reach is so short.

Big serve and then smack the 2nd serve when you return. All the hall-marks of a dominant wta grass-courter for the future. It is as black and white as that and I over-thought this.

Shameful.

[BallsforTennis]

Ah, Becker loses from a set up. Poor.

[GoBlue77]

Im going to sound like a dick but whatever.
All the long write-ups and match breakdowns in the world don't mean anything in tennis. Look at Eagles on here, dude posts the most about tennis and is the worst tennis better on here.

Just comes down to motivation and who wants it more like always...nothing more.
Good luck to you in the future.

[zec]

Eagles is the worst tennis better on here?? Ok...

[BallsforTennis]

Im going to sound like a dick but whatever.
All the long write-ups and match breakdowns in the world don't mean anything in tennis. Look at Eagles on here, dude posts the most about tennis and is the worst tennis better on here.

Just comes down to motivation and who wants it more like always...nothing more.
Good luck to you in the future.

lol

That's very simple minded of you.

I see what you've done here. 2 + 2 = 22

Agut is a fiesty Spanish grind-horse that can make shots and guts out wins, Becker is a more calm and laid back and also less intense player, that ballstrikes from the back of the court and is effective with that style on grass.

So because Agut won and his personality or oncourt demener and disposition is more intense, means he won? To me that's simple minded.

Look at Keys vs Kerber, who wanted that victory more? Zheng vs Coco, who wanted that victory more? If I step onto court with Djokovic and inherently want it more than him to get the W, does that mean I'll win? It's a laymans example, but it's true.

Sorry I don't buy your take on this, Ive read Eagles thread and he isn't bad. I think you've also been a little bit judgemental here based off two results. One was completely off, even with my anaylsis, so that was a deserved loss, however if you were watching any of the Benjamin Becker match, especially the end you'd have seen that sometimes a lot also can come down to playing better on the big points, as well as shot-selection on the big points. Becker's shot selection on the big-points was simply not as good as it was when the points wern't as big. That is part of what should be taken up in a prematch analysis, who plays the 30 all points better, who plays the break-points better, being clutch etc. These are all factors. With Zheng, she just couldn't contain the serve of Coco Van, I thought she would be able to push her back with her serve Zheng and get her off the frontfoot, evidently I was wrong. So my point is my prematch analysis was very inaccurate on one of these matches and on the other (Becker) it was marginally off. So yes, it was down to my anaylsis being poor actually and completely MY fault, not the fact that I wasn't looking at something as bog-standard, basic and shallow as ... motivation / who wants it more.

You are not being a dick. You are being very honest and open and that should be welcome. My gut says you are upset at being marginally down in money from following Eagles since the year opened though.

[frugalgambler]

Im going to sound like a dick but whatever.
All the long write-ups and match breakdowns in the world don't mean anything in tennis. Look at Eagles on here, dude posts the most about tennis and is the worst tennis better on here.

Just comes down to motivation and who wants it more like always...nothing more.
Good luck to you in the future.

You are delusional. EP36 breaks about even, while documenting and accurately keeping track of his record, which a hell of a lot better than 80% of the wannabe cappers around here. Just because you can write a good prose does not make you a good capper. I wish the OP luck, but only time will tell.

[BallsforTennis]

You are delusional. EP36 breaks about even, while documenting and accurately keeping track of his record, which a hell of a lot better than 80% of the wannabe cappers around here. Just because you can write a good prose does not make you a good capper. I wish the OP luck, but only time will tell.

To be honest. I didn't write well, so I don't agree with that notion. If you can write-well, interms of being accurate with what will unveil in a match and then the destination it finishes with that's what's important. Whether the person is articulate or not in their reasons/logic/feeling they give across is irrelevant. (Not suggesting for one moment I am articulate lol)

I think I was simply inaccurate with what I thought would happen in the Coco Van vs Zheng match and therefore to me, that is considered as having not written well. Simply typing paragraphs after paragraphs proves nothing. Very much a case of substance over style.

I've seen Eagles, he isn't bad and he looks into 'motivation' more than 'technical' aspects, so for GoBlue77 to critisice his methods and mount it down to motivation, is sort of conflicting and a contradiction.

Thanks for the good luck wishes. In no way am I here to take test or judgement, but only to offer my 2 pence worth, engage in discussion with Honeybadger and whoever else can make well reasoned points. None of my bets are locks, a form of printing money or whatever else. lol

[BallsforTennis]

All England Wimbledon Championships First round

I have a friend whom actually traveled to the University of Rohampton to watch the qualies, from the first round all the way through to the final (Third).. he claimed one of the impressive performers was Denis Kudla.

I am going to keep these as short and sweet as possible.

(5 rating) Denis Kudla over Ilhan

1.7 Pinnacle

Denis is a menace on the slicker surfaces as far as I have followed him over his career and just has a more balanced game than Ilhan, who seems very much reliant on quite massive ball-striking. Denis's strokes are more compact and he is more aware of his strengths and weaknesses than Ilhan I feel, who has more of a journeyman's mentality.

Over the duration of a best of 5 sets, I would certainly fancy Denis the more here. He performed admirably at last years Championships, as well as alos at Queens for where I went to watch him in his defeat to Tsonga.


(5 rating) Robredo over Lacko

I got 1.72, because I was early, but it's currently at 1.66. I'm sure there will be a small game handicap (Or spread) available just prior to the game which should bolster the price. May be -2 or -3 games.

Pinnacle

Now I know people are concerned over me taking Robredo in a match outside of the claycourts, however what we need to appreciate is this guy's will/desire/passion for the win is second to none. On the other hand, Lacko's is last to all. Whilst being incredibly talented, there is something lacking in Lacko's game and it's determination spark. The guy is very much happy to labor across the year, bullying around in challengers, whilst doing fairly okay in the odd 250 event that favours his game. He's a ladies man off the court and not very professional when it comes to training hard for his tennis. It's true that the grass favours his game, but let's remember they have specifically slowed down the court's at Wimbledon to add and create spectator value. So whilst the ball may still skid off the surface here at SW19, it is a kind skid. That kind skid can therefore allow Robredo the time and space to run around his backhand and hit his favoured forehand he so very much loves to, enabling him to open up the court. Over the duration of a best of 5 set match, you would assume, Robredo will get the better of a player like Lacko, who's a good mover, but not top 30 standard.

I have many more for the first round and will get around to doing the write-ups as soon as I can.

[BallsforTennis]

Will finish them off after the Gasquet Lopez match actually.

[BallsforTennis]

(5 rating) Cirstea over Duval

2.05

Pinnacle

So because Cirstea has had no grass-court warm-up before Wimbledon that means she'll be heading out in the first round to Duval, whom beat an EXTREMELY underpar Caroline Garcia? Not for me. Cirstea's game is fluid ballstriking, early leaning forward groundies and she will smother Duval at every opportunity she has.

(5 rating) Kukushkin over Sela

2.23 Pinnacle

Kukushkin is a player that's game funnily enough suits the grass and I feel he matches up well on the surface against Sela. Serve and return of serve on grass is critical and that has been validated time after time after time with the grass. Kukushkin on any other surface would be a lowly 1.5 against Dudi, however because this is grass and the stats suggest Kukushkin is a novice on the surface, they are giving Sela a little more respect in the odds department.

Sela's record on the grass and ofcourse whom could forget that win against Roddick back in the day at Queens in three enthralling sets. He will cause Kukushkin problems with his savvy game and movement, nifty little rascal he is. I just feel Kukushkin brings his A game in grandslams as we saw against John Isner at the French and he will be crushing the Sela serve which gets far too much air-time. Kukushkin's serve will buy him cheap points and set him on the frontfoot in rallies. Sela at a low 5,7 tall hasn't the 'reach' nor 'wing-span' to get these serves back, or atleast with any interest. He has a good low center of gravity, his angles are sick for grass and he loves all of that cat and mouse stuff, but ultimately won't have the weapons to overcome Mikhail.

Kukushkin also pushed Denis to 3 sets at Queens, whom played a decent tournament at Queens and Eastbourne.

[BallsforTennis]

(5 ratings) Vasek Pospisil over Robin Haase

2.26

Pinnacle

These odds are ultimately the product of Vasek having an appalling clay-court campaign (A surface he primarily is shit on) and the fact Haase beat an off the pace Gasquet... who wasn't quite match-fit enough.

Vasek has a very admirable game which I believe will eventually see him as a permanent fixture inside the world's top 20. Both tall and mobile, is a dangerous asset, he has the big serve and forehand, but there is also that dose of counter-punching / shot-making quality in his game... which are all assets that suit the grass.

Vasek has a huge serve, reliable kick second serve which forces the opponent to STAY off the front-foot and at a neutral or even retreating position in the rally and that is critical. He has the mobility and reach to get Haase's big serve back and that is also critical, because Haase's mjor weapon behind his movement is indeed his serve.

Robin is a sick match-player and it often means he wins matches he shouldn't, he plays rather well on the big points and moments and rides momentum really well. He hasn't any weapons really, excellent shot selection and a nowise for being able to read his opponent's next movement. His anticipation is top-draw.

Pospisil ultimately will have too much in the fire-power department for Haase and after being warmed up in Holland, I really feel he takes this one.

[marniblitz]

A great read!

Win or lose, being able to intelligibly explain a pick is not something many can do well (or at all). Not that it's a requirement, but I find it enjoyable.


I look forward to hearing more!

[BallsforTennis]

(5 ratings) Karlovic + Benneteau parlay

(1.38 + 1.74 respectively)

2.4

Pinnacle

Big Ivo Karlovic, we all don't need reminding of how good this dude can be on the grass.

Easy matchup for Karlovic.

Two big servers, both fairly poor returners, meaning the better big server wins.

Really is that simple in-terms of matchup between these two on grass.

Both have single handed backhands and therefore will be serving to that area of the court each time, it's going to be near impossible for Dancy to break. Ivo at 1.45 is a gift.



Who can forget when he blasted Lleyton off the court in the 1st round the year after Lleyton won Wimbledon? Absolutely sensational serving display.

He can be boringly efficient on serve and all it takes is one slip.

As for Benne, he is high, flowing and atm has all those feel good endmorphones going around his body... a GRANDSLAM in doubles, it certainly looks like it's taken him out of his depressive state he'd been in for over a year now, after choking away that ATP tour title against Sousa.

I can't see him losing to Muller over the best of 5 with this considering, Muller won't be able to maintain the serving level for 3 sets.

[matt1216]

Never back against a big server on grass, absolutely awful call.

Just like the Federer vs Ferrer matchup, Ferrer tries to play on the frontfoot and dictate, but that's Federer's game too and his kick serve helps smother Ferrer who refuses to retreat behind the baseline. Same shit here. Zheng just like Ferrer is a small player and unable to reach up to the kick serves because her wing span is so short.

Awful call, embarrassing and sucks. Underestimated the American server, grass isn't complex, it's pretty simple, if one player has a big serve and the other doesn't then the other will always find it more difficult to hold their service games and pretty much require themselves to play flawless service games.

Its all good bud, I made the same mistake as well

[baconbets]

how about tursunov at +135 over istomin? feels like this line should be flipped.

[RobRifle]

Like the Kudla bet very much, will also play that. Not sure about Robredo, I would favour him as well but odds ~1.6 are no value anymore imo
Cirstea will have an early exit. She is a very streaky player. Winner, winner, winner or one unforced error after another. Recent from lets me tend to another error-prone performance.

Karlovic seemed to have injury issues lately so not sure about that one too. If he is completely fit he will of course have no probs mit Dancer in a duell of severs

GL anyway

[Honeybadger44]

Really like Robredo and Kukushkin bets.

I don't know what the linemakers so in Lacko, to pust him so close to Robredo. Yeah, ok. Tommy is a great clay courter, but that doesn't mean he cannot play on other surfaces as well. You said that Lacko is a great mover. I only partially agree with that. When it comes to chasing the shots, from side to side, yes, he is very good at it. But when you force him to go in every directions. Moving forward and backwards, he gets little bit lost and doesn't seem to have an idea, what to do with that ball. Robredo, really know how to open up the court with the different shots and put his opponent on the move, so I guess he will be able to expose Lacko's weaknesses. Opening line @1.77 was pretty great. I am sad that I didn't get it, but I got in troubles so many times, when I got too excited about the value in the oppoening odds and I bet it too big. That is why I rather think it through and take not that great odds, then making a rush decision and more mistakes.

As I said, I like Kukushkin as well. Sela is one of those, which I wrote about. Had a good grass court tournament, here and there, mostly long time ago. And he is still holding on to that, grass court specialist, title. You have a perfect point about Kukushkin probably being low 1.50's on any other surface (or lower). And I struggle to find any matchup caracteristics, which will change into Sela's favor on grass courts.

Good luck!