[baconbets]

seems like the obvious play this year is to find dogs in nadal's quarter and take their "quarter win" future. however, if it is too obvious, prices will reflect that.

the draw isnt out yet, but is everyone else thinking the same thing?

[NguyenImproved]

seems like the obvious play this year is to find dogs in nadal's quarter and take their "quarter win" future. however, if it is too obvious, prices will reflect that.

the draw isnt out yet, but is everyone else thinking the same thing?

Hmmm. Interesting.
Personally I don't think that. I don't think he'll have another Steve Darcis moment and may go far this year. FO win gave him a lot of confidence. He's free-rolling now since no-one thinks he's gonna do as well on grass. If healthy he's never an easy beat.

Halle was a throwaway match I think. He had to show his face since he pulled out last year.

The problem is even though his game is not prime for grass there seems to be no-one in great form this year.

Anyways my overall view of Wimbledon is:
It's Nole's chance to break his slam duck.
(Although the odds show that he's favourite and at skinny odds so no surprise there).

As for the rest of the favourites in betting I don't like any of them. Murray and Fed will bow out early. Nadal is a mystery.

If it's not Djoker I have a feeling this year will throw up a real shock winner.
A type of Janowicz-in-Paris affair.
Except the guy will actually go on and win the whole enchilada.

Who's it gonna be: Raonic? Nishikori? Isner? Janowicz himself?
I don't know.

For some reason I like Raonic. Even with his stupid hairstyle, his cumbersome movement and his accursed nationality.
He seems to fit the physical mould of a guy who does well at Wimby.

[baconbets]

good distinction, as far as nadal having a darcis moment. not saying he should be faded in each round, just saying that once he gets to the round of 8, whoever is still left in his quarter may very well be good enough to beat him in their own right. a guy like raonic could very well have odds as long as 10:1 to win a quarter with nadal in it, which seems like a deal. i like nishkori myself and hope he is in nadal's Q.

and i know you hate fed from that other thread, but the field is particularly weak this year. the usual suspects that thwart fed like tsonga and berdych have looked awful. delpo is AWOL. djokovic not in top form. murray coming back from injury, making stinky faces through even the easiest matches. nadal visibly hobbled.

[Scottish]

Djokovic 1-5 in his last 6 slam finals and a big fav on his weakest surface you can keep him.

Federer is too old and how many players win slams just shy of their 33rd birthday? None in recent memory.

Murray never loses early at slams especially at Wimbledon so i dunno how you can predict that he will go out early when he just reached the SF on his worst surface in the French but his form hasn't been great this year and it's hard to pick him to win, Nadal would be the favourite if he survives the first week but he's also most likely to go out early.

One of these 4 will end up winning i'm pretty sure of that but it's hard to confidently pick which one.

Murray and Djokovic are the safest bets to win their quarter out of the 4 in my opinion and least likely to crash out to a lower ranked player but can Murray find his game like last year and can Novak finally win when it matters in a final like he used to 2-3 years ago that's the big question.

I couldn't disagree more about Raonic, his movement is horrible on the grass and he won't get to the 2nd week, all he has is a serve and the ball bounces lower on the grass which suits him less than clay and hard.

Remember also that Wimbledon doesn't seed on the ATP rankings but uses grass results from the past 2 years added to ATP rankings which means Wawrinka gets whored out of number 3 and drops to 5 while Murray moves to 3rd seed at Wimbledon.

In short, it's hard to see anyone outside of the big 4 winning but it's also hard to confidently pick any of them to win, they all have big downsides unlike in most slams.

Dimitrov is now too short and represents no value for a guy who's only been to 1 QF at a slam.

Janowicz is playing terrible, Wawrinka never really done anything on the grass, Berdych will have his usual QF run then lose to a top guy.

[RMStanley]

I think Djoko regained a ton of confidence at Roland Garros (his worst surface) and will be motivated to regain top dog billing on a surface that favours him most.

I think likelihood of winning is

1. Djoker
2. Murray
3. Nadal

[nvrlose37]

Any chance Wawrinka (+2200) or Berdych (+4500) could be live upsets here?

[NguyenImproved]

good distinction, as far as nadal having a darcis moment. not saying he should be faded in each round, just saying that once he gets to the round of 8, whoever is still left in his quarter may very well be good enough to beat him in their own right. a guy like raonic could very well have odds as long as 10:1 to win a quarter with nadal in it, which seems like a deal. i like nishkori myself and hope he is in nadal's Q.

and i know you hate fed from that other thread, but the field is particularly weak this year. the usual suspects that thwart fed like tsonga and berdych have looked awful. delpo is AWOL. djokovic not in top form. murray coming back from injury, making stinky faces through even the easiest matches. nadal visibly hobbled.

Haha well I don't hate fed. I just think he always represents great value because of his reputation and "paper" qualifications (eg great h2hs which were amassed when he was in his prime). He's traded as a bluechip stock when he's barely a second tier player for mine. I mean his results haven't been better than Berdych's over the last 12 months.

Re: your main point. Yes I guess it could be a play because if we look back to pre-FO everyone was writing off Nadal on account of his sub-standard levels of play. I mean he was getting BOSSED by Nishikori ON. CLAY. AT. HOME. IN. SPAIN. So that all kinda got swept to the side in the euphoria of Roland Garros #9. But it's pertinent.
I mean now he's on a worse surface (theoretically) for his game so it makes sense he should be faded.

I just don't like writing off the guy cos he seems to find a way when it matters.

But from what I've seen lately he's not dictating any points anymore. Against any power player he's defending and hoping for errors.
Guys like Nishikori are owning the forecourt.
Even at FO final Djoker player way way sub-par and nearly pushed it to a 5th.

So Nadal's powers seem to be waning for mine as well. Now's probably a good time to go against him since he's on that high( or his supporters are) of a clay season and FO win. Just need the right player to back.

My main quarry at Wimby will be Feds though as this could be the last season he's rated a decent chance to win any slam.
He could go out 1st round against the right player.

Mark my words.

[NguyenImproved]

Djokovic 1-5 in his last 6 slam finals and a big fav on his weakest surface you can keep him.

Federer is too old and how many players win slams just shy of their 33rd birthday? None in recent memory.

Murray never loses early at slams especially at Wimbledon so i dunno how you can predict that he will go out early when he just reached the SF on his worst surface in the French but his form hasn't been great this year and it's hard to pick him to win, Nadal would be the favourite if he survives the first week but he's also most likely to go out early.

One of these 4 will end up winning i'm pretty sure of that but it's hard to confidently pick which one.

Murray and Djokovic are the safest bets to win their quarter out of the 4 in my opinion and least likely to crash out to a lower ranked player but can Murray find his game like last year and can Novak finally win when it matters in a final like he used to 2-3 years ago that's the big question.

I couldn't disagree more about Raonic, his movement is horrible on the grass and he won't get to the 2nd week, all he has is a serve and the ball bounces lower on the grass which suits him less than clay and hard.

Remember also that Wimbledon doesn't seed on the ATP rankings but uses grass results from the past 2 years added to ATP rankings which means Wawrinka gets whored out of number 3 and drops to 5 while Murray moves to 3rd seed at Wimbledon.

In short, it's hard to see anyone outside of the big 4 winning but it's also hard to confidently pick any of them to win, they all have big downsides unlike in most slams.

Dimitrov is now too short and represents no value for a guy who's only been to 1 QF at a slam.

Janowicz is playing terrible, Wawrinka never really done anything on the grass, Berdych will have his usual QF run then lose to a top guy.

I tipped Murray to win last year but comparing to this year's model is chalk and cheese.
He had a long solid run-up in form around slams and Masters 1000s culminating in last year's win.

This year he's been sporadic and spluttering. Ok form at FO (flattering since he scraped by some mediocre players like Kohl and Monfils who gave up) mixed with losses to guys like Thiem etc.

Watching him play can also be an emotional roller-coaster if you backed him.
I mean he reaches for his back and grimaces every time he loses a point.

Or serves a fault.

Or feels a stiff breeze.

[beefcake]

If the Flonodis is in Nadals Q..bet it large..Any other bracket..bet it small..

[baconbets]

the reason to play wawrinka is the inverse of the reason not to play federer. federer was good on grass, so hes overvalued. wawrinka hasnt done anything great on grass yet, hence undervalued.

berdych odds that long always seem worth fishing for. 45:1 for a former finalist whose game isnt dramatically worse than it was in 2010 seems like a deal, but berdych by nature will fold up his tent at some point in a long tournament. if you like berdych, wait to see if his quarter looks good and take him to win that. he is genetically programmed to fail over 2 week tournaments, which is why he has only one masters title despite years solidly inside the top 10.

[NguyenImproved]

the reason to play wawrinka is the inverse of the reason not to play federer. federer was good on grass, so hes overvalued. wawrinka hasnt done anything great on grass yet, hence undervalued.

berdych odds that long always seem worth fishing for. 45:1 for a former finalist whose game isnt dramatically worse than it was in 2010 seems like a deal, but berdych by nature will fold up his tent at some point in a long tournament. if you like berdych, wait to see if his quarter looks good and take him to win that. he is genetically programmed to fail over 2 week tournaments, which is why he has only one masters title despite years solidly inside the top 10.

Agree about berdych. he always looks tempting when you look at his skill-set and record.
But then you know in the pressure cooker of a final he's definitely not the guy you want to be on.

He reminds me of that whiny guy in Aliens that cries like a bitch when the heat is on:
'Game over man. Game over!'

I backed Wawrinka in the AO final. He's a big powerful shot maker. When he's on fire he can crack through even the tightest defences. But when he's off all you need is a guy standing at the other end to ride the UE-train to a W.
Wawrinka seems to need a set amount of time to wind up his big groundstrokes to perfection. Something grass doesn't allow.

The problem with assuming Stanimal will do well on grass all of a sudden is that 1. he's not that young and 2. his AO win was more a result of the general overall decline amongst the upper echelon of men's tennis (apart from maybe Djokovic) than him lifting his level to any great degree.

[frugalgambler]

I think it's gonna be between Djoker, Feds and Murray in that order. A lot will depend on the draw though.

The women's side is a lot more interesting. Does Serena have motivation to win here and is she even decently prepared ? If not, it looks very wide open. We might get a new Bartoli in A-Rad or Lisicki or somebody else, like Ana or Halep or even Genie.

[SirtySree]

Federer and Dimi on value but if you want to be predictable then Nadal and Novak.

Murray has no shot this year. Way too out of form and not enough time to find it unless he gets an easy draw and miraculously finds form which is very slim possibility.

[nvrlose37]

Thanks for the input guys, I'll probably take a stab at the odds just for some action.

[baconbets]

nish AND raonic are in nadal's quarter. big opportunities for quarters futures there, gentlemen.