1. #1
    matt1216
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    My Original tennis picks

    ill be posting my plays here as this thread will be here until the end of the season. I know its a new thread and its not the first one ive had but I needed to start off on a fresh state of mind. I want to get back to what I did last summer with solid but limited plays. theres no bullshit with trends this time around, just my honest opinion/prediction. I will be posting 3 plays max, and I will number them in order of strength, 1-3. 1 unit equals 50$ Alright, lets get to the picks:

    1. Riske +1.5 sets + Karlovic ML Odds 2.00 x 3 units

    2.
    Koukalova ML Odds 1.80 x 2 units

    3. Lopez ML + Flipkins ML Odds 2.10 x 1.5 units




    GL
    Points Awarded:

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  2. #2
    Cappinpicks
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    bovada added set betting and total sets... cool right

  3. #3
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cappinpicks View Post
    bovada added set betting and total sets... cool right
    I do like it in certain situations were the dog might/should win

  4. #4
    felix_felicus7
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    GL Matt! That Kenny v Lopez battle of the lefties should be interesting.

  5. #5
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by felix_felicus7 View Post
    GL Matt! That Kenny v Lopez battle of the lefties should be interesting.
    Lopez should squash him, thanks man

  6. #6
    Marillion
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    Quote Originally Posted by felix_felicus7 View Post
    GL Matt! That Kenny v Lopez battle of the lefties should be interesting.
    DUDE AWESOME I played the game from your avatar on my TV when I was little lol.

  7. #7
    felix_felicus7
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    SNES is still my fave console Marillion! Sorry for the diversion Matt.

  8. #8
    pattymayo
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    Not only is Matt a degenerate tennis gambler but he's a degenerate thread maker too

  9. #9
    PharaohUB
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Not only is Matt a degenerate tennis gambler but he's a degenerate thread maker too
    What happened to the other thread he said exactly same thing and then posted like twenty plays in two days??

  10. #10
    PharaohUB
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    And what was the "bullshit" with trends thing? You sound like someone who is hoping to go on a run in one thread and then go and start charging for picks. What exactly was the secret "trend"? Lol

  11. #11
    pattymayo
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    I've discovered matts mysterious trends:
    Attached Images  

  12. #12
    rankslash
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    Thread #3242324 and counting... Good luck though.

  13. #13
    brodie
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    ok so obviously i entered this thread to bag on matt for not only creating yet another thread, but naming it "my original tennis picks" LOL

    but my attention has swayed to pattymayo.... patty why are you such a dick in every thread? i mean we all bag on matt, but it seems you have a personal problem with him.... like a jealous little kid ha

  14. #14
    matt1216
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    2-1 +.25 units

  15. #15
    matt1216
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    when i put "original thread" i didnt mean anything by it..... just trying to get refocused as the clay season kicked me in the nuts

  16. #16

  17. #17
    frugalgambler
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    GL Matt. Hopefully, you will rediscover that winning mojo you had last year.

  18. #18
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
    GL Matt. Hopefully, you will rediscover that winning mojo you had last year.
    thanks man, we shall see what happens

  19. #19
    Simon Gruber
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    I remember being at a movie theater back in February I think and my phone was on very low battery about to die, and I was about to bet 3500 on Robredo -300 or something over Andujar and just as I was at the final stage of confirming the bet the phone died and I checked the score later on to see that Robredo lost like 1 and 2 or something. To my recollection that was the end of Matt's run.

  20. #20
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Simon Gruber View Post
    I remember being at a movie theater back in February I think and my phone was on very low battery about to die, and I was about to bet 3500 on Robredo -300 or something over Andujar and just as I was at the final stage of confirming the bet the phone died and I checked the score later on to see that Robredo lost like 1 and 2 or something. To my recollection that was the end of Matt's run.
    yeah, that was a tough one.... 1 of Andujars best performances in the past couple years... Go figure

  21. #21
    Semper Fidelis
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    Who you liking for tomorrow Matt? Any more potential upsets catch your eye? Very surprised at how well Matosevic and Lu have been playing on grass thus far. Also, you've been pretty spot on with the ladies so far - don't know of many (if any at all) that have actually lost recently! Lol

  22. #22
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Semper Fidelis View Post
    Who you liking for tomorrow Matt? Any more potential upsets catch your eye? Very surprised at how well Matosevic and Lu have been playing on grass thus far. Also, you've been pretty spot on with the ladies so far - don't know of many (if any at all) that have actually lost recently! Lol
    Thanks bud... Matosevic shoulda lost to a motivated Tsonga.. LU wasn't that special, Karlovic can't return anything on grass. I'll post something in about an hour

  23. #23
    matt1216
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    With these in between tournaments, it's somewhat difficult to Guage how these players might come out. Two plays for today:

    2. Stephens/S.Zhang Over 21 Games Odds 1.87 x 2 units

    2. Falla 1st set Winner Odds 1.83 x 2 units


    Two medium stake plays above. I may add 1 more play in the morning, but that will be it.


    GL

  24. #24
    Big John Studd
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    Thanks for the Falla play!
    C'mon Stephens show some heart...

  25. #25
    matt1216
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    adding:

    2. Stepanek ML Odds 1.77 x 2 units



    GL

  26. #26
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big John Studd View Post
    Thanks for the Falla play!
    C'mon Stephens show some heart...
    I had that feeling Stephens would flake out... Shoulda just take S. Zhang....

  27. #27
    hendrafirmanto
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    yes, stephens done it again, after we started to trust her.

  28. #28
    matt1216
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    ​4-2 +1.45 units

  29. #29
    fitguy67
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    matt...i give you license to raise the units to absolute-max 10units...aim to keep play sizes geared to true confidence-type considerations, with absolutely no "revenge for previous losses" built into it...

    large-pop plays (anything 7 or higher) should be quite rare...and the average unit-size should be 4-ish

    if you use an excel sheet, put a formula at the top of your "number of units" or "weight" column to average the entire column as you go...

    if you ever see this figure go over 5, it means you're drifting into revenge -driven (aka "chasing") mode and you must modify the weights to keep the average always on the "safe side" of 5

    ____________

    i like your plays, Matt,,,until you get hell-bent on revenge and throw all bet-size common-sense out the window

    keep the number of plays manageable, and bet-sizes tied to the merits of the plays (and not the nature of your recent "run")...

    if i see a handful of plays with risk-unit numbers in the 0.5 to 10max range, with an average that never exceeds five...then I know all is well in Mattovia...and i'm happy to tail

  30. #30
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    matt...i give you license to raise the units to absolute-max 10units...aim to keep play sizes geared to true confidence-type considerations, with absolutely no "revenge for previous losses" built into it...

    large-pop plays (anything 7 or higher) should be quite rare...and the average unit-size should be 4-ish

    if you use an excel sheet, put a formula at the top of your "number of units" or "weight" column to average the entire column as you go...

    if you ever see this figure go over 5, it means you're drifting into revenge -driven (aka "chasing") mode and you must modify the weights to keep the average always on the "safe side" of 5

    ____________

    i like your plays, Matt,,,until you get hell-bent on revenge and throw all bet-size common-sense out the window

    keep the number of plays manageable, and bet-sizes tied to the merits of the plays (and not the nature of your recent "run")...

    if i see a handful of plays with risk-unit numbers in the 0.5 to 10max range, with an average that never exceeds five...then I know all is well in Mattovia...and i'm happy to tail
    Thanks man... Yeah I'm definately taking a "slower approach" to this thread. In the past I would chase to hard after a loss, that would end up leading to a fast death. The unit's will be kept low, there's no need for any crazy plays, as they are far and few between

  31. #31
    matt1216
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    Two plays to start, I may add one later:

    1. Ivanovic ML + Dimitrov +1.5 sets Odds 1.74 x 3 units

    3. Groth ML Odds 2.30 x 1.5 units

  32. #32
    matt1216
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    Last play:

    2. Falla/Kohlscriber under 21.5 games Odds 1.91 x 2 units



    GL

  33. #33
    JC1186
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    Quote Originally Posted by matt1216 View Post
    3. Groth ML Odds 2.30 x 1.5 units
    I'm on Groth for 4 units @ 2.45.

    Imo the bookies have thisk one wrong. Groth should be fav. He has beaten Ram and Muller - the two best guys on grass in the draw. Kyrios on the other hand hasn't looked special. In the semi's his opponent was mentally doomed from the start and was just smacking balls into the net and outside of the tram lines.

    The bookies think it was a great win. It wasn't.

    Groth to get the job done here. He deserves to be favourite.

  34. #34
    manwiss
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    Quote Originally Posted by matt1216 View Post
    Two plays to start, I may add one later:

    1. Ivanovic ML + Dimitrov +1.5 sets Odds 1.74 x 3 units



    I took Zhang's +5.5, hope she won't dissapoint me

  35. #35
    SirtySree
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    Quote Originally Posted by JC1186 View Post
    I'm on Groth for 4 units @ 2.45.

    Imo the bookies have thisk one wrong. Groth should be fav. He has beaten Ram and Muller - the two best guys on grass in the draw. Kyrios on the other hand hasn't looked special. In the semi's his opponent was mentally doomed from the start and was just smacking balls into the net and outside of the tram lines.

    The bookies think it was a great win. It wasn't.

    Groth to get the job done here. He deserves to be favourite.
    I know I go on about this a lot but I hate it when ppl go on about how the bookies got it wrong when it has got nothing to do with them. It's the public that's affecting the line, not the bookies. Bookies made Groth the favourite but the public are betting on Kygrios which then makes the bookies have to adjust the lines and make Groth the dog.

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