Top 3 deciding factors for me (ranked from high to low)
1. surface : obviously all-surface players are very hard to come by
2. momentum/form: if a player is overperforming, I tend to go with him/her. opposite is also valid.
3. H2H: although gives you a clue, sometimes misleading. I tend analyze stats of previous matchups if available and put in style-of-play,form and surface context.
I rarely bet on chalk line and don't care for public opinion (ie. line movements). Why should I bet on 3 matches @1.35 where you can nail a surprise @2.8 or higher?
- Late form of players
- Overall ability/form of the player on the surface type
- Importance of tournament for the players
- The draw chart- whom they will face in the next round
The most important factor are the odds, of course. If we ignore them and focus only on factors related to assessing the players' strength, then...
IMO this question is too theoretical, so that it could be good or important but if I am to give a response, it would be "General ability of the player (without considering the recent form)". Recent form takes a close 2nd place and surface - 3rd place.
Although, as said, this is just a general question and a general answer... there are cases when any factor can turn out to be the most important.