He one of the best writers on trading and wagering on tennis and tennis.co.uk is one best sites out there for tennis. I Remembered an article I read on his site about stats for players coming off 5 set wins as I was looking at the gulbis/bagnis match.
Bagnis is qualifier coming off a grueling 4.5 hour 5 setter with Benneteau, tying the longest fifth set in French open history and the match of his life .
Article starts off talking about isner/mahut match and the subsequent losses of both player in their next matches.
Players most likely to end up in five setters
"Almagro, Federer, Isner, Kohlschreiber, Petzschner and Wawrinka, who regularly appeared in my research. Indeed, it has been discussed in the media that Isner’s poor record in Grand Slam events is due to the fact that he regularly plays 5 set matches, due to the often tight nature of his matches."
The article used stats for 5 set matches for 4 years in grand slams between 2009-2013
Overall "Out of those 365 matches, only 143 players won after winning a 5 set match in the previous round, a win percentage of 39.2%."
The stats really stand out on players outside of the top 50 who win 5 setters. top 50 players tended to win about half but players outside the top 50 won 22% of their matches after a five setter
"There were 218 outcomes where a top 50 player played a 5 set match the previous round, and they won 110 times (50.5%).
Outside the top 50, there were 147 outcomes but only 33 victories (22.4%).
Here we can see a clear distinction between how players of different ranks deal with fatigue. The higher ranked players can seemingly deal with this much better and there was less of an edge laying these players in these situations."
Bagnis is 144 in the world, this is his first grand slam and until Benneteau had never beaten a top 60 player, but Bagnis was pretty emotional off this last victory and he is only 24 years old and this is the always volatile Gulbis so you never know.
Gulbis looked really good winning Nice and this is could be huge letdown sport for bagnis after that grueling Benneteau match. Taking a punt on gulbis -2.5 sets and put him in some small parlays but this is also Ernests Gulbis ,you never know what you are going to get.
^ with the 22.4% win record for players outside the top 50 can be quite misleading. how many of those players outside the top 50 would've been a massive underdog? probably 90% of those so 22.4% win record is actually pretty decent.
in terms of sock vs johnson, u would b tossing a coin so it's a pointless play. sock can be good on his day bt also terrible so hes one of those guys u rarely bet on. johnson is more consistent bt relies on his serve a bit so would need to serve well. one of those games where it's live bet or nothing bt nothing looks hell of a lot better considering the amount of other options u cn bet on
I agree with sirty here that you have to judge these stats critically, these are players outside the top 50 putting up poor post 5 setter stats. Gulbis could have won in straight sets whether or not bagnis had just have been involved a very long 5 setter. Bagnis was in his first grand slam, off the match of his life and tying the longest 5th set in French Open history. A 144th ranked player facing a top 20 player in the world with far superior surface stats, especially with Gulbis and his numbers over the last year.
I do like Sock here but I have been looking at this and I think the over on the total is the best play here, pretty much a coin flip match. Johnson is off a tough 5 setter and I didnt think he was impressive at all against Lokoli from watching the match but he is only 24 years old. Both players are outside the top 50 but I saw Johnson beat Haas at Del Ray a few months ago and he has been impressive stat wise this year. Sock will benefit from the slower conditions and I like the number for Sock here but I think the total is probably the safest play.
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The Implication of winning a five set tennis match article and Gulbis/Bagnis match
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