[TheCentaur]

Not one underdog winning in the first round

There was one grand slam awhile back where there were a few big upsets but usually very predictable

[jjgold]

If you're that confident just that big parlays and I think you will change your tune quickly

Good luck and congratulations on your anniversary

[TheCentaur]

Good luck and congratulations on your anniversary

What anniversary?

[matt1216]

Not one underdog winning in the first round

There was one grand slam awhile back where there were a few big upsets but usually very predictable

I've mentioned this a lot to others who don't believe me... The majority of the underdogs hit round 2/Tuesday. Good luck

[bababooey13]

I've mentioned this a lot to others who don't believe me... The majority of the underdogs hit round 2/Tuesday. Good luck

i have a good friend who believes everything is rigged. He's a nut job, but I half agree with him. He claims this applies to all sports. march madness, football sundays, college football saturdays, tennis tournaments, etc.. Public wins early , gets confident with their winnings, gives it all back and then some later on. on days like today i wonder if he's so crazy.

[James Marques]

People who think any sport is rigged have no concept of variance. It's like believing the whole world is fake because you saw The Matrix once.

[Hardcoar]

i have a good friend who believes everything is rigged. He's a nut job, but I half agree with him. He claims this applies to all sports. march madness, football sundays, college football saturdays, tennis tournaments, etc.. Public wins early , gets confident with their winnings, gives it all back and then some later on. on days like today i wonder if he's so crazy.

Or it's just coincidence (due to variance); sometimes he will be right, and sometimes he wont – which is why he's wrong, obviously!

[bababooey13]

People who think any sport is rigged have no concept of variance. It's like believing the whole world is fake because you saw The Matrix once.

any sport? to be this stubborn is strange to me. have you not read the articles on all the soccer match fixes they uncovered a couple years ago? or that tennis dude who was banned for life for fixing?

[daneblazer]

Women's basketball and flush draws on the river in SBR Poker

[ardacet8]

Guys it is the emotions and the ups and downs at that moment. I dont believe sports are rigged in general, if we dont speak of eastern europe football or some russian events. For example facing a favourite, say Federer, at a 5 setter tournament, is not a easy thing for Rosol. Because different from the masters, that favourite has "a lot" to play for (pride and money of course) and you have to win 3 sets against him, even while sometimes you cant even win one game. When Ramos couldnt manage to get the set point at 2nd, I completely understood that 3rd set will be a blowout. Because 3 chances were there for him but after he cant realise those, his mood was doomed. If you were involved in a sports event, you would understand. For example I was a member of the table tennis team in our high school and the tournaments were just like these. Sometimes if my opponent is hitting the balls as damn chinese, after 4 points you would understand that you wont have a lot of chance there. So it is..

[matt1216]

Or it's just coincidence (due to variance); sometimes he will be right, and sometimes he wont – which is why he's wrong, obviously!

I doubt it when the majority of the time the "variance" is front end loaded

[matt1216]

any sport? to be this stubborn is strange to me. have you not read the articles on all the soccer match fixes they uncovered a couple years ago? or that tennis dude who was banned for life for fixing?

Watch round 2/Tuesday. Dogmania

[ChalkyDog]

Pro golf when Tiger was dominating.

[jjgold]

Like I said Bet big parlays then

You will see an empty bankroll

[sluggy1616]

i have a good friend who believes everything is rigged. He's a nut job, but I half agree with him. He claims this applies to all sports. march madness, football sundays, college football saturdays, tennis tournaments, etc.. Public wins early , gets confident with their winnings, gives it all back and then some later on. on days like today i wonder if he's so crazy.

I think Youzny and Stepnak would have both lost if it had been a bit hotter today. both came back from 2 sets down. Those matches would have been upsets

[homie1975]

One on one sports like tennis boxing ufc the easiest to cap but the biggest moneylines

[homie1975]

Today was a rarity. Dont count on one day and think it means anything going forward

[ByeShea]

i have a good friend who believes everything is rigged.

Guys like that are usually inconsequential. No bigger crowd of paranoids than in a hard core race track crowd. Took me a few years to break away from it myself. I've learned that many things in life really are at face value.

[Hardcoar]

I doubt it when the majority of the time the "variance" is front end loaded

That's only because of perceptive bias: Upsets seem more significant than favorites winning (as they are expected to), hence people delude themselves such as you did above.

[Hardcoar]

I think Youzny and Stepnak would have both lost if it had been a bit hotter today. both came back from 2 sets down. Those matches would have been upsets

Or they would have been even more certain to win in the end, considering just the fact that both were two sets down.

[TheCentaur]

Haven't gotten into in depth, but back tested it to first Sunday of last years French Open

Favorites were 12-0

[homie1975]

Haven't gotten into in depth, but back tested it to first Sunday of last years French Open

Favorites were 12-0

yes because every fave was -1300 or higher probably

this would work in college hoops and college foots also,

boxing as well.

the first day of a tennis major when seeded players are playing qualifiers, is not a good indicator

[bababooey13]

Guys like that are usually inconsequential. No bigger crowd of paranoids than in a hard core race track crowd. Took me a few years to break away from it myself. I've learned that many things in life really are at face value.

thats funny cuz as Ive gotten older, ive learned to take less and less things in life at face value. what different lives we are leading.

[Plaza23]

In 2013,
Men's seeded players that lost in the 1st rd: 22,28,5,17,31
Women's seeded players that lost in the 1st rd: 25,23,22,28,24,30,11

In 2012,
Men's seeded that lost: 16,23,15,26,30
Women's seeded that lost: 5,17,32,12,30

In 2011,
Men's seeded that lost: 19,6,22,26,11
Women's seeded that lost:18,19,26,31,20,22

In 2010,
Men's seeded that lost: 23,27,21,26,18
Women's seeded that lost: 10,20,9

If you just bet the women's top 8 in the 1st round, you'd have a 39/40 chance of winning 97.5%. The only top 8 seed on the women's side to lose in the last 4 yrs was Serena Williams (at #5).

[SirtySree]

Said before multiple times, in 5 setters upsets are far harder to get but the odds already reflect this so it's not like we gain/lose anything from that fact.

In mens tennis, a lot of the time 1 break could mean you win a set so upsets will happen in 3 setters but not as often in 5 setters.

If you want value, wait till the fav is down a set or 2.

[matt1216]

Said before multiple times, in 5 setters upsets are far harder to get but the odds already reflect this so it's not like we gain/lose anything from that fact.

In mens tennis, a lot of the time 1 break could mean you win a set so upsets will happen in 3 setters but not as often in 5 setters.

If you want value, wait till the fav is down a set or 2.

Thats definately something to look at too

[Vinnie Paz]

In 2013,
Men's seeded players that lost in the 1st rd: 22,28,5,17,31
Women's seeded players that lost in the 1st rd: 25,23,22,28,24,30,11

In 2012,
Men's seeded that lost: 16,23,15,26,30
uWomen's seeded that lost: 5,17,32,12,30

In 2011,
Men's seeded that lost: 19,6,22,26,11
Women's seeded that lost:18,19,26,31,20,22

In 2010,
Men's seeded that lost: 23,27,21,26,18
Women's seeded that lost: 10,20,9

If you just bet the women's top 8 in the 1st round, you'd have a 39/40 chance of winning 97.5%. The only top 8 seed on the women's side to lose in the last 4 yrs was Serena Williams (at #5).

Yes but have you seen the odds? It's not like were talking -110 spreads here

But good info thanks for that

[Plaza23]

Yes but have you seen the odds? It's not like were talking -110 spreads here

But good info thanks for that

I know, but if you parlay the women's top 8 + the men's top 3, you can get paid out 10 to 8. That aint bad for a 98% chance of winning.

[jjgold]

It seems that the favorites when all the time but going to tennis form and see how Walleys guys at that parlays get smashed

[TheCentaur]

yes because every fave was -1300 or higher probably

this would work in college hoops and college foots also,

boxing as well.

the first day of a tennis major when seeded players are playing qualifiers, is not a good indicator

7 of the 12 were under -500 and 3 of those 7 were -185 or less

[bababooey13]

It seems that the favorites when all the time but going to tennis form and see how Walleys guys at that parlays get smashed

ive read this 6 times & i am convinced you're high on LSD or heroin.

[tipsadontlikehim]

Today was a rarity. Dont count on one day and think it means anything going forward

+1000

[frugalgambler]

Tell it to all the squares who were slaughtered last year at Wimbledon. But maybe there something about RG being the most predictable GS in the early rounds, with clay and all.

[Vaughany]

i have a good friend who believes everything is rigged. He's a nut job, but I half agree with him. He claims this applies to all sports. march madness, football sundays, college football saturdays, tennis tournaments, etc.. Public wins early , gets confident with their winnings, gives it all back and then some later on. on days like today i wonder if he's so crazy.

Some events are some arent...vast majority arent....to say "everything" is just retarded

[kenz]

Roland Garros less upsets

Wİmbledon more upsets

If Men Tennis is as predictable as OP said, bookies would not open markets for every game. And I am pretty sure OP is aware of this but just wants some discussion to supress boredom

End of story