[MagicDiceFlow]

I promised earlier to come back with the last two picks of the tournament and here it is. This Charleston tournament has treated me well this past week. I was able to turn out a $4k profit in the last week starting with just a single $300 bet and Petkovic has made me some very good money during this run. I will be riding with my first instinct here and taking Petko against the surging young canadian. On paper , Petko leads the matchup 2-0 but I'm fully aware that Bouchard is a much stronger player now since the last 12 months.

The main reason why I'm betting the large wager is because Petkovic quite frankly has been unstoppable. Her groundstrokes, serving, and defense has been superb all tournament long. When she's in this form and especially on clay, she can beat any top ten player in the world. Bouchard has played very solid as well but I don't think she's quite on par with the level Petko is playing at currently. Bouchard still has a few kinks to work out with her serving and Petko is a bad opponent for that because she's a great returner and will punish any weak second serves.

This line opened with Petko -105 and the public swiftly pounded it to Bouchard -130 currently at Heritage. The line will probably move about 20 cents at Heritage, down to Bouchard -110 after I post this. They always move the line about 20c to 30c after I post a big play for some reason.


Don't let Petkovic's #40 ranking scare you away, she's playing top ten caliber tennis in her current form.



Best of Luck fellas

[MagicDiceFlow]

Ticket Details :
Wager Type : Money Line
Wager Status : Pending
Risk / To Win Amount : 2,000.00 / 2,200.00(USD)
Accepted : 4/5/2014 0:47AM - PST


Sport / Period : WTA Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : A. Petkovic
Time : 4/5/2014 10:05:01AM - (PST)
Line : +110
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[frugalgambler]

GL MDF. My only worry is that Petkovic is not a mentally strong player, but let's hope she will not choke.

Who the hell is Bencic and will she beat Cepelova today (another virtually unknown entity for me) ?

[MagicDiceFlow]

Bencic is the next Sharapova. We'll see if she can hold her nerves together to advance to her first final but talent wise, she's definitely got it.

[Hardcoar]

You don't think Petkovic is mentally strong for a woman?

[MagicDiceFlow]

Petko is actually strong mentally for a WTA player. She's known for her grittiness and never quit fighting spirit. Evident in her match with Safarova earlier today after she lost that second set, came back strong to thrash her in the 3rd.

[fitguy67]

just pounced on it, some at pinny (a 1-set = action book) for +114...and some at b365 for +110 (a full-match = action book)...

agree with your analysis...let's get this

[Hardcoar]

Petko is actually strong mentally for a WTA player. She's known for her grittiness and never quit fighting spirit. Evident in her match with Safarova earlier today after she lost that second set, came back strong to thrash her in the 3rd.

I was responding to Frugal, in case that wasn't evident. That isn't to disrespect your opinion though!

Congrat's on your recent fortune and best wishes!

[MagicDiceFlow]

I was responding to Frugal, in case that wasn't evident. That isn't to disrespect your opinion though!

Congrat's on your recent fortune and best wishes!

I was responding to frugal on that actually. Thanks and good luck on your bets as well HC.

[Honeybadger44]

If you bet this match, Petkovic is the waay to go here... I will probably stay away, as these two are very similar type of players. When something like that happen, the one which is "feeling it" more, that day, comes out on the top. Petkovic has been more consistant throughout this torunament, for sure, but if Bouchard comes out as strong as she was yesterday, she also has very legit chances to win this one. I like Petko as well here, but not quite enough to pull the trigger. Good luck to you MDF and all of you, which will tail this play.

[Steamroller]

Bencic is the lock of the day. Bencic to win the tournament lock of the week

[Marillion]

Bencic is the lock of the day. Bencic to win the tournament lock of the week

I think even if Bencic wins today, it will be pretty tough for her in the final, no matter whether her opponent is Petkovic or Bouchard. Of course, if you have the option to place a futures bet on her, you can consider the odds and make a play in accordance but I really doubt she can win the whole thing.

[kenz]

Over 21 @1.74 is the play here

[innn]

Bouchard is a much stronger player now since the last 12 months.

not only that she is much stronger now than at the start of this tournament as well.

The main reason why I'm betting the large wager is because Petkovic quite frankly has been unstoppable. Her groundstrokes, serving, and defense has been superb all tournament long. When she's in this form and especially on clay, she can beat any top ten player in the world.

You do know this is highly pretentious of them to call it clay if even Mighty Errani didn't feel comfortable at all on this and eventually did lose.

Bouchard has played very solid as well but I don't think she's quite on par with the level Petko is playing at currently.

Petko struggled with ...Tsurenko. By her 3rd set with Safarova the only confidence she still had in her shots was to send all of them no except right where Safarova stood. I can only imagine Bouchard when receiving the "presents"

Bouchard still has a few kinks to work out with her serving

Bouchard serve is sick man. Petko wished to have one as well.

Petko offerred 10 BP to Tsurenko that gal does not know what to do with those or can't . Also 11 to Safarova.
Put 2k on Bouchard not to break Petko at least 4 times on 10 BP and they are lost for good.

This line opened with Petko -105 and the public swiftly pounded it to Bouchard -130 currently at Heritage. The line will probably move about 20 cents at Heritage, down to Bouchard -110 after I post this. They always move the line about 20c to 30c after I post a big play for some reason.

Don't let Petkovic's #40 ranking scare you away, she's playing top ten caliber tennis in her current form.

You had a very good week congratulations but it's a 2k waste this bet. This is Bouchard's to lose game and she won't

[MartyFR]

not only that she is much stronger now than at the start of this tournament as well.



You do know this is highly pretentious of them to call it clay if even Mighty Errani didn't feel comfortable at all on this and eventually did lose.





Petko struggled with ...Tsurenko. By her 3rd set with Safarova the only confidence she still had in her shots was to send all of them no except right where Safarova stood. I can only imagine Bouchard when receiving the "presents"



Bouchard serve is sick man. Petko wished to have one as well.

Petko offerred 10 BP to Tsurenko that gal does not know what to do with those or can't . Also 11 to Safarova.
Put 2k on Bouchard not to break Petko at least 4 times on 10 BP and they are lost for good.


You had a very good week congratulations but it's a 2k waste this bet. This is Bouchard's to lose game and she won't

I do agree with this.

I'm on the far more powerful Bouchard.

[suicidekings]

I really don't see how you can be so confident in Petkovic. I agree with the talent & potential to rise up into the top 10. However she's done nothing of note this year, whatsoever. She beat an exhausted, post-AO Cibulkova, and otherwise has a string of early outs, several of which are against very average competition.

In this tourney, she wasn't great in her first match and then had two completely meaningless wins against Domnguez-Lino and Lisicki, who barely showed up. I would say she looked ok yesterday against Safarova, but certainly not dominant. The adjusted odds seem pretty accurate to me, with Bouchard as a small favourite.

[frugalgambler]

Petko is actually strong mentally for a WTA player. She's known for her grittiness and never quit fighting spirit. Evident in her match with Safarova earlier today after she lost that second set, came back strong to thrash her in the 3rd.

I do not follow WTA that much, but I thought I saw Petko choke a couple of times before. Let's hope that you and HC are right and Petkovic will come through today.

[GoBlue77]

So now u move lines lol ok pal

[Dmoneytx]

So now u move lines lol ok pal

[Skrillz3412]

[frugalgambler]

Well the line did move from +110 to -105, but I am watching 1st set now. Petko just completely chokes on BPs abd deuce points on Bouchard's serve, missing returns by a mile. Hmm, does not look good. I think Bouchard wants her first title this week and Petko is being outclassed right now.

[matt1216]

​epic burial lol

[Hardcoar]

​epic burial lol

This thread is for ML, not the first set.

[Dmoneytx]

This thread is for ML, not the first set.

True, true... But Bouch up 2-1 in second, looking pretty darn good right now...

[matt1216]

This thread is for ML, not the first set.

You think Bouchard will lose this the way she's playing? Not happening bud

[frugalgambler]

Gotta say, I like Bouchard's new attire. Much better than the hideous dresses she used to wear.

[frugalgambler]

You think Bouchard will lose this the way she's playing? Not happening bud

Much stranger things have happened.

[frugalgambler]

And Petko almost chokes again at 0-40 in games 7. First break, finally.

[fitguy67]

True, true... But Bouch up 2-1 in second, looking pretty darn good right now...

You think Bouchard will lose this the way she's playing? Not happening bud

thanks for that guys

this is tennis, a game more prone to "sea changes" than any others...

and this is WTA...the version of tennis most prone to the wild momentum swings...

go back and re-read the posts during the IW Fed-Djoko final if you need reminding that dominance (sometimes disguised as mere adequacy) in a closely contested match comes in waves...and that each set is its own distinct entity

[Hardcoar]

You think Bouchard will lose this the way she's playing? Not happening bud

I don't think she will. I think she might. I think she won't maintain that level of play for the entire second set.

[matt1216]

I wonder if that guy cheering her on in the back round live bet Petkovic..... Lol some guy yelling after every point

[frugalgambler]

I don't think she will. I think she might. I think she won't maintain that level of play for the entire second set.

She did not and Petko found some life, but Bouchard still looks like a better player out there.

[fitguy67]

BTW, this is the first time in a long time that I'm actually enjoying watching a WTA match...the product is usually absolute crap, a la LiNa/Pennetta IW SF

no-one is "sucking" or "choking" in this match...this is one highly-contested point/game/set after another

[MagicDiceFlow]

LMAO at all the first set quarterback trolls here. There is that fighting spirit and grittiness of Petkovic that i was mentioning about. Dont ever count her out because she will fight you to the very last point. She is also one of the fittest woman on tour and will get better as the match progresses.

Tied up set all.

[Hardcoar]

BTW, this is the first time in a long time that I'm actually enjoying watching a WTA match...the product is usually absolute crap, a la LiNa/Pennetta IW SF

no-one is "sucking" or "choking" in this match...this is one highly-contested point/game/set after another

Indeed... it almost makes you feel like labelling it "tennis".