[MagicDiceFlow]

I've been hearing some talks about Isner in good form this tourney but I don't buy into it much. If you examine the wins that Isner has so far, he's basically beaten nothing but washed up/has been players in Verdasco, Lu, and Davydenko.

Gulbis on the other hand had to fight off the future of tennis in Dimitrov and a very hot Bautista-Agut. I find more weight in those wins than Isner's road so far. We all know that Isner has that monster serve but so does Gulbis. Gulbis has a powerhouse serve as well and if needed, he can go toe to toe with Isner's serving.

I also trust Gulbis return abilities much more than Isner's. Sure Isner will have the home crowd but I think crowd support doesnt come heavily into play when you have short and rapid serve points like we will see today. Matter of fact, the more Isner hits aces, the less crowd advantage he'll get because it will be a boring match and crowds love long rallies.


Take GULBIS -150 .......it's a solid bet. Good luck fellas.

[tipsadontlikehim]

He faced 1 break point all week.
And Davydenko, Lu, Verdasco are fine returners and good from the baseline.

[MagicDiceFlow]

He faced 1 break point all week.
And Davydenko, Lu, Verdasco are fine returners and good from the baseline.

All three of those guys serving sucks though. When you can't put pressure on Isner by having a strong serve yourself, it gives him much more confidence when he serves. When you have another booming server on the other side, that will put much pressure on Isner to have a perfect serving game to win the match.

[tipsadontlikehim]

I know... but that's why i am not backing either guy because it can go to 2 tie breaks.
I do hope Gulbis wins though as I hate Isner's game (to compare, i much prefer watching a guy like Anderson)
Gl dude

[kenz]

If they duplicate what they did in Valencia Isner wins. And now he is in American soil.

I think Isner is more likely to win than what people perceive. I dont have a bet though. And I dont see value in Gulbis with these odds.

Isner's prices are dropping

[Hardcoar]

I've been hearing some talks about Isner in good form this tourney but I don't buy into it much. If you examine the wins that Isner has so far, he's basically beaten nothing but washed up/has been players in Verdasco, Lu, and Davydenko.

Gulbis on the other hand had to fight off the future of tennis in Dimitrov and a very hot Bautista-Agut. I find more weight in those wins than Isner's road so far. We all know that Isner has that monster serve but so does Gulbis. Gulbis has a powerhouse serve as well and if needed, he can go toe to toe with Isner's serving.

I also trust Gulbis return abilities much more than Isner's. Sure Isner will have the home crowd but I think crowd support doesnt come heavily into play when you have short and rapid serve points like we will see today. Matter of fact, the more Isner hits aces, the less crowd advantage he'll get because it will be a boring match and crowds love long rallies.


Take GULBIS -150 .......it's a solid bet. Good luck fellas.

Not to mention the US crowds aren't complete dicks... like the French-Canadians.

[Hardcoar]

If they duplicate what they did in Valencia Isner wins. And now he is in American soil.

I think Isner is more likely to win than what people perceive. I dont have a bet though. And I dont see value in Gulbis with these odds.

Isner's prices are dropping

Assuming every upcoming match will be exactly like the previous one will cost you a lot of money in betting.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm also taking into account the slower hardcourt surface here. The balls havent been rising as much thus this may reduce a few aces/winners here and there from Isner. Especially when Isner hits that heavy topspin serve on his second serves. Of course this will also have the same affect on Gulbis serve but Gulbis isnt as dependent on a perfect serving game to win the match.

[kenz]

Assuming every upcoming match will be exactly like the previous one will cost you a lot of money in betting.

The sentence begins with an if. And thanks for another invaluable lesson, keep them comin

[MiDNiTe]

i think for the odds maybe long johns better bet but i wouldn't touch this match gulbis probably should win but long johns might be having one of his days where he just hits aces everywhere and being a clutch serve bot

[kenz]

If Gulbis is moody he will lose. Somehow I have the feeling he will be calm. Still Isner is more likely to win for the credit given to him but not sure who will win. Will be a good match

[Hardcoar]

Obviously Gulbis is the favorite here (as indicated by market odds), and his road has been tougher. Still Isner has looked pretty good in his matches and he didn't have an easy path himself.

Overall I feel you make a good point and in essence I agree with you, but it seems to me you underestimate Isner a little bit too much.

[Hardcoar]

The sentence begins with an if. And thanks for another invaluable lesson, keep them comin

I know I speak the truth... Thank you very much!


To be fair, the way you worded your post it did imply (to me) that you used the Valencia encounter as a staging post and then factored in the home-court advantage.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Obviously Gulbis is the favorite here (as indicated by market odds), and his road has been tougher. Still Isner has looked pretty good in his matches and he didn't have an easy path himself.

Overall I feel you make a good point and in essence I agree with you, but it seems to me you underestimate Isner a little bit too much.

I'm not under estimating Isner at all, HC. I'm just saying that if Isner has a dip in his first serves today, he's not going to win the match.

[MartyFR]

I'm with you on Gulbis. If Gulbis keeps calm, he is way too good for Isner.

[matt1216]

80% of public still on Gulbis but Isner price has not moved up at all. Most books it's stayed the same or came down. Good write up MDF. I don't disagree with your play, but I'm on Isner here

[MiDNiTe]

gulbis serve is pretty good but gulby is a average returner so most likely there will be 1 ot 2 tbs and anything cqn happwn in a tb, i saw a guy backed rafa big in tb against hot dog and rafa was up mini twice

[ChasingInle]

Isner will triumph and provide some good laughs in this thread.

[JustSomeCash]

Question for you guys..

In Pinnacle I can take Isner 2:1 @ 5 ; Gulbis 2:1 @ 4 ; and Under 25.5 @ 2

So if I play like that:

Isner 2:1 * 300 = 1500
Gulbis 2:1 * 400 = 1600
Under 25.5 * 700 = 1400

Only way for me to loss that if game end like the last one 7:6 7:6 for same player,
but if not,3 sets give me +200 and 2 sets give me my money back..

its worth play or too dumb risky?

[Semper Fidelis]

I absolutely hate betting against my homeboy, especially when I can take him at + odds, but I know better than anyone that he has a much higher risk of choking away the match than Gulbis. At the same time, I haven't had the opportunity to watch a single match this week, even though Gulbis clearly has had a tougher path. So torn here; may just take the Over and a little on Gulbis 2-1.

[MagicDiceFlow]

80% of public still on Gulbis but Isner price has not moved up at all. Most books it's stayed the same or came down. Good write up MDF. I don't disagree with your play, but I'm on Isner here

I think a lot of American bettors are taking Isner with the home crowd theory on this one which is evening out the line. Overall Isner is still a marquee name in the tennis world so he'll always have a lot of backers on hardcourts.

GL Matt

[tipsadontlikehim]

Question for you guys..

In Pinnacle I can take Isner 2:1 @ 5 ; Gulbis 2:1 @ 4 ; and Under 25.5 @ 2

So if I play like that:

Isner 2:1 * 300 = 1500
Gulbis 2:1 * 400 = 1600
Under 25.5 * 700 = 1400

Only way for me to loss that if game end like the last one 7:6 7:6 for same player,
but if not,3 sets give me +200 and 2 sets give me my money back..

its worth play or too dumb risky?

IMO that's worth a try

[slayer14]

you have to remember gulbis can be a non tryer sometimes when he loses focus

[slayer14]

isner is a different player in these 3 sets matches on US tournaments, he fear no one

[kenz]

Question for you guys..

In Pinnacle I can take Isner 2:1 @ 5 ; Gulbis 2:1 @ 4 ; and Under 25.5 @ 2

So if I play like that:

Isner 2:1 * 300 = 1500
Gulbis 2:1 * 400 = 1600
Under 25.5 * 700 = 1400

Only way for me to loss that if game end like the last one 7:6 7:6 for same player,
but if not,3 sets give me +200 and 2 sets give me my money back..

its worth play or too dumb risky?

toooooooo dumb risky
Scenario 1: +100
Scenario 2: +200
Scenario 3: break even
Scenario 4: -1400

[Hardcoar]

Gulbis -0.5 seems good live at two all.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Did Gulbis call the trainer

[slayer14]

gulbis blister on thumb

[JustSomeCash]

toooooooo dumb risky
Scenario 1: +100
Scenario 2: +200
Scenario 3: break even
Scenario 4: -1400

Yes i didnt pulled the trigger in this case

but Scenario 1 is: +200 and Scenario 4 is not that "easy" to see such a scenario.

but who cares now lol :P

Gulbis call the trainer...hope for him that it is not serious

[Metaphor]

I'm on Isner @2.25. If he serves well, he can beat anyone on tour.

[slayer14]

isner rally good so far

[Semper Fidelis]

What is a good live-play here MDF? If Gulbis wins this tiebreak I may take Isner for 2nd set... If Isner wins the tiebreak it might be better to take Gulbis, no?

[kenz]

Big John won the tiebreak, H2H he won last 3 tiebreaks

[slayer14]

isner gets stronger why would you back gulbis

[MiDNiTe]

like i said going to be tb then anything can happen