I know this is a tennis forum but money is money and I thought I'd give you a likely winner my tennis degens. I think Lupita Nyongo (12 Years a Slave) will win best supporting actress tonight. My reasons are,
1) Jennifer Lawrence, her closest rival already won best actress last year and Oscar loves new faces.
2) Lupita Nyongo is African American, and Oscars loves to reward fine black actors (and playing a slave only plays on the white guilt of the voters, who might see themselves in a position to reward someone who symbolically represents a race that has suffered long and hard in this country).
She is currently -150 at 5 dimes. I got her for 142 and put a 300 on her to win. 150 is still a great price. Some places she is high as -220.
If you are looking for a good long shot I think Chiwetel Ejiofor (Twelve Years A Slave) is at +1900 but the consensus seems to be that he won't win, as the best actor category has too many studs.