sure he is probably fatigued, but his draw is extremely favorable imo. robredo or carreno busta, berlocq, granollers, haase, andujar, mayer, all guys he should beat on a any normal day. He went on a crazy run last season so why not again? he won 2 tournaments last year back to back making it to the finals again in the 3rd tournament only to flame out. so he's been to 4 clay court finals in a row now.
his recent final against leo mayer was a rape show, joke, piece of cake , and the flight to buenos aires is quick and easy. i know ferrer should be keen to retain his title, but wouldn't be surprised to see him go down with his lack of recent clay time and he is not on fognini's side of the draw...if fognini doesn't tank, I think he should make the finals once again and with these odds there will be a hedging opportunity if he makes it that far. i think fognini is on a mission this year. riding his gravy train until it crashes.