[shari91]

Opening Pinny odds:

Rafa - 480
Wawrinka +434

I'm waiting to see what the spread is. If it's reasonable, I'll be taking Nadal with the minus games as the ML is wayyyyyyyy out of my comfort zone. If Rafa plays on Sunday like he did tonight I think Stan can hang in better than Roger did but he won't beat him. Ignoring the differential in skill level, this is when experience will cause a massive imbalance.

[SirtySree]

I think Wawrinka's serve may keep him in the game and keep the spread low which could be a problem. Don't think Wawrinka could take a set even in a tiebreaker so leaning 3-0 at the moment but gotta check what the spread is first though in case its better.

[Donkey]

Spread is -5.5 at -135 and -150 at my books

[shari91]

Spread is -5.5 at -135 and -150 at my books

Yuck! I was hoping more for 4 or even 4.5 at the absolute worst.

So I guess the question becomes... Rafa would've covered that spread with Roger tonight. Do I think he can vs Stan also? I'm leaning yes but I'm going to wait from some feedback in here (if anyone cares to give me some!) before deciding.

[QuangX]

Don't be an addict, Maybe we won enough for this tourney already. Pass on moneyline, too much juice. Nadal will most likely pwn warwinka, Parlay?

[QuangX]

Yuck! I was hoping more for 4 or even 4.5 at the absolute worst.

So I guess the question becomes... Rafa would've covered that spread with Roger tonight. Do I think he can vs Stan also? I'm leaning yes but I'm going to wait from some feedback in here (if anyone cares to give me some!) before deciding.

Congrat on our cash!

[shari91]

Don't be an addict, Maybe we won enough for this tourney already. Pass on moneyline, too much juice. Nadal will most likely pwn warwinka, Parlay?

No way am I touching ML. Never at these odds and I really don't have anything to parlay him with as I like Cibulkova in the ladies final. Whatever I bet, it'll be for just a piece of what I won on Nadal and I'll bank the rest. Trust me, they're not getting their cash back from me this time!

[nicelemons]

Stan ML

[snufflyjoe]

damn... no hedging for my stan outright bet (50/1600) at those odds ....wawrinka to the bank or lose my $50

[shari91]

damn... no hedging for my stan outright bet (50/1600) at those odds ....wawrinka to the bank or lose my $50

Yeah you're kind of stuck on the ML. But you can also work out what to put on Rafa 3-0 3-1 3-2 so you're guaranteed cash regardless of who wins. With a $1600 potential payout you should have leeway there if you haven't spent some hedging yet!

[pavyracer]

Wawrinka can't be stopped. He will destroy Nadal.

[jjgold]

Stan is much much better than Fed

You have to handicap off that

[BadLuckSanta]

Stan is much much better than Fed

You have to handicap off that

Early as fukk jj is a tennis expert?

[snufflyjoe]

Yeah you're kind of stuck on the ML. But you can also work out what to put on Rafa 3-0 3-1 3-2 so you're guaranteed cash regardless of who wins. With a $1600 potential payout you should have leeway there if you haven't spent some hedging yet!

I put a little on Birdy to hedge but also bet wawrinka 3-1(vs birdy)so all together I have staked around $100 on Wawrinka Ouright+hedges

I would feel like a dick putting a silly amount on Nadal to Guarantee a couple of hundred bucks or whatever.

Set betting is also uncomfortable to me. If stan takes the first set and I can get Nadal at a reasonable price I'll take it. But I'm not holding my breath the live betting odds on Stan/Djokervic were a joke and I expect more of the same.


On the bright side I am going to enjoy watching this game more than any other tennis game in my life

[letsgo]

@CMCKENDRY_ESPN: Nadal is 12-0 vs Wawrinka... Has won 26 straight sets.

[snufflyjoe]

@CMCKENDRY_ESPN: Nadal is 12-0 vs Wawrinka... Has won 26 straight sets.

Prior to Wawrinka's qtrs match Djokervic had won the last 14 matches against Wawrinka...shit changes

[shari91]

Wawrinka can't be stopped. He will destroy Nadal.

No one is destroying Nadal. Not Djoko, not Murray and definitely not Wawa. They might win matches off him once in awhile but no one is destroying him. If Fed had played against a player like Nadal from the start of his career I guarantee you he wouldn't be considered the greatest of all time now. He got lucky in that the greats were at the end when he came through and he racked up a lot of titles when his biggest competition were the likes of Roddick and Hewitt. In comparison look at what Nadal's achieved vs having to deal with the likes of Fed and Djokovic, even ignoring all his time off for injuries. I love a great underdog story and I usually have money on them but to think that Stan's going to butcher Nadal is just nutty. If he even wins a set in his first Slam final against one of the best players ever - and someone who I think has proven is better than Fed - then I'll be happy but shocked.

[firedawg]

Wawrinka can't be stopped. He will destroy Nadal.

[Sawyer]

Wawrinka can't be stopped. He will destroy Nadal.

I hope so. Would be happy to see Waw defeat Nadal and lift the cup. Would be a massive upset..

However I'm not very hopeful. Why? You see how Nadal defeated Federror in 3 sets. He is a bad matchup for one-handed backhand players like Fed and Waw. He can neutralize these guys very easily.

Numbers also justify this. Nadal is 12-0 vs Wawrinka. Yuck!

Still, it's a FINAL after all and everything is possible. Good luck Wawrinka, I hope you stun Rafa and shock the world one more time.

[jjgold]

Stanley playing unreal tennis

He has taken joker to the limit the last 3 times

I would be careful here

Stan better server than Nadal
Just a powerful on the ground

Watch out

[Hardcoar]

I hope so. Would be happy to see Waw defeat Nadal and lift the cup. Would be a massive upset..

However I'm not very hopeful. Why? You see how Nadal defeated Federror in 3 sets. He is a bad matchup for one-handed backhand players like Fed and Waw. He can neutralize these guys very easily.

Numbers also justify this. Nadal is 12-0 vs Wawrinka. Yuck!

Still, it's a FINAL after all and everything is possible. Good luck Wawrinka, I hope you stun Rafa and shock the world one more time.

Only half the upset Djokovic was, but sure 1/6 or so.

[jjgold]

Might throw small amount on Stan

He seems to have more confidence than other years

[ACoochy]

Stanley playing unreal tennis

He has taken joker to the limit the last 3 times

I would be careful here

Stan better server than Nadal
Just a powerful on the ground

Watch out

Tending to agree with you here JJ.

Stan has stepped it up since masters tourney last year and believes he can roll with the best now.

Don't think he will win SU but certainly see him being able to take a set off rafa.

Does anyone know how many unforced errors federer made today?

[shari91]

Tending to agree with you here JJ.

Stan has stepped it up since masters tourney last year and believes he can roll with the best now.

Don't think he will win SU but certainly see him being able to take a set off rafa.

Does anyone know how many unforced errors federer made today?

50 vs 25 for Rafa

And how do you think Stan will go with a guy he's never won a set off previously? Fed is a guy who has the history with him and won some of his points purely based on memory and instinct alone.

Nadal isn't invincible but in this particular situation I honestly can't see why anyone would take him to win this match. Again coming from someone who JJ erroneously said gets too emotional about players.

If I want any player to win it's Stan. No way though. That blisters stuff is rubbish just like I said in the other thread. What else is going to have changed so he can beat Nadal or even come close? His serve is amazing and yet Rafa has the best defense in the game, better even than Murray's at this point. So then what? He might beat him in a tiebreak but that's a big if. I think Rafa is going to nail him. That's my thoughts at this point at least.

[shari91]

Might throw small amount on Stan

He seems to have more confidence than other years

You didn't bet on the Rafa vs Fed match but now you're betting on Stan to take down Rafa?! I can understand those who faded him against Fed trying to chase their losses now but if you watched that match I seriously don't understand putting a straight ML bet on Stan. Will be happy if he wins as I love an underdog but I just don't see it happening. He has nothing that Nadal hasn't faced before from stronger, much more experienced players! WTF are people even thinking here?!

[Chi_archie]

let down match for Nadal

[No coincidences]

Early as fukk jj is a tennis expert?

One of the JJ's knows his tennis. Just can't remember which shift.

[shari91]

let down match for Nadal

This is why I adore you. Sadly 90% of the people who see this post won't get it.

[No coincidences]

BTW, shari, WTF was with the line on that match last night? Is Nadal typically that cheap against Fed? That match was a joke -- Fed looked like he was 60 years old compared to Nadal.

How could Stan be +434 vs. Rafa when Fed was only +130? Even with Wawa's lack of experience, that makes zero sense.

[Cross]

Fed looked pretty good last night and all tournament actually. He did not look 60 years old, that is ridiculous! Rafa is just too good for him and feds backhand is no answer to Rafas heavy topspin forehand. The books were probably torn with where to put the line last night, for instance if the roof was closed fed has a career four and one Indoor hardcourt record against Nadal. Wawrinka Will definitely be able to defend his backhand better than Roger did, but since this is his first grand slam final he will not have the experience to do anything more than when one set I think.

[shari91]

BTW, shari, WTF was with the line on that match last night? Is Nadal typically that cheap against Fed? That match was a joke -- Fed looked like he was 60 years old compared to Nadal.

How could Stan be +434 vs. Rafa when Fed was only +130? Even with Wawa's lack of experience, that makes zero sense.

Nadal's odds are usually 30 to 40 cents lower than that lately. The only times they haven't been in the past 4 or so years is when Nadal is returning from an injury break.

Stan is getting that price because of the H2H, the lack of experience in a Slam Final and how Nadal took care of Fed. I think the 3rd aspect should be discounted as I'm not sure anyone other than 4 time a year tennis watchers thought Fed would win this one but the first two factors are huge. And if a regular tennis gambler thought Fed would win they should rethink the way they're going about things as like I said in my OP, Murray would've kicked his butt if he were healthy. Nadal is unlike any other player on the court ever. We could say Stan is like a more powerful Fed who just doesn't have the finesse Fed did in his heyday. But there is no comparison to Nadal which is why when the big guys beat him, they celebrate like they've just won a billion dollar lotto. If you can work him out and somehow grind him down to win, it's as big as winning a Slam even if you take him out in the 2nd round. The rest of the top guys are all very similar but Nadal is on a strange different planet. If you watched the match tonight you should've seen serves that suddenly curved and twisted in the last 10 centimeters to end up on another side of the box and the same with his ground strokes. You can't prepare for that. A ball's coming at you and you prepare to strike it and suddenly in mid air you watch it change direction and curve and twist it's way elsewhere. And even worse he can retrieve all the serves and shots that others deem unplayable.

It's actually crazy if you watch him match after match and I think that's why guys get so hypo when they beat him.That price on Wawa is a fair one in my eyes as I think he has even less chance of winning a set than Fed did simply because Fed is more used to Nadal. Then again I've been wrong on a lot before so I wouldn't be surprised if I was again now

[jjgold]

I could me making major play on Stan The Man although will post before match if I do

Stan has unreal tennis skills more natural than Nadal actually

If he plays his A Game..Stan wins in 4

[No coincidences]

I think the 3rd aspect should be discounted as I'm not sure anyone other than 4 time a year tennis watchers thought Fed would win this one but the first two factors are huge.

But why did they think Fed would win? And why was Rafa only -150 in this spot?

I'm trying to wrap my head around this after seeing what I saw last night.

[jjgold]

Stan has better serve, net game and power

Nadal better backhand, heart/desire and court speed

[Hardcoar]

But why did they think Fed would win? And why was Rafa only -150 in this spot?

I'm trying to wrap my head around this after seeing what I saw last night.

They didn't. Federer was never the favorite as fas as I can remember.

Blister rumours had a lot to do with it, as well as Nadal looking shaky and Federer looking the best he has for a year or so.