[poet]

Fed's biggest problem (besides aging) is that he has (for whatever reason) become a bit of a choker when it comes to breaking his opponents, converting 37% of break point chances last year, which is 7% less than the previous year. And I think that number goes down further against top players and/or pressure filled matches (remember all the break chances he had against Robredo at the US Open last year). Yesterday, he could have beaten Andy in three, but again he was only 4 of 17 on break chances. This problem is compounded when he plays Rafa because Rafa does not give Fed many break opportunities: only 10 break chances for Fed in his last 4 matches against Rafa. Having said all this, Rafa is not serving great at this tournament (because of blister, tape, etc...). In his last three matches alone his opponents have had 22 break chances against him. Meanwhile, Fed's opponents (in his last five matches) have only had 11 break chances. Some of that has to do with quality of the opponents but it is also clear that Raffa is struggling with his serve a bit while Fed is not. Hence, I predict that Fed will get more opportunities to break Rafa than he is used to getting against him. But even if he does it might not matter much because Fed can't seem to break his opponents like he used to. Hence, the best bet might be the over, because if Fed serves well but can't break Rafa, then we are in for a long night.

[matt1216]

here's one for ya.... With all the pounding on raffa's knees, do you think he's about 30 in tennis years. I see Rafa slowly slipping here soon.... I hope that federer can find a way to win, but I really have my doubts.

good luck

[poet]

here's one for ya.... With all the pounding on raffa's knees, do you think he's about 30 in tennis years. I see Rafa slowly slipping here soon.... I hope that federer can find a way to win, but I really have my doubts.

good luck

I know, but whenever I see Rafa I think of Jimmy Connors, both are real fighters. And wasn't Jimmy like 50 when he stopped playing (or at least he looked 50 anyway)

[matt1216]

I know, but whenever I see Rafa I think of Jimmy Connors, both are real fighters. And wasn't Jimmy like 50 when he stopped playing (or at least he looked 50 anyway)

Your right... I think this play merrits over the total.... I think we can both agree, this IS Federer's last chance to win a slam. He can move better than Berdych and wawrinka... I think he knows if he wins this vs Nadal he wins the title. Think about this... Berdych and wawa are tired befor even playing each other. I think this match goes 4 sets minimum. Both guys will be exhausted. I think Fed may pull a miracle off. Nadal owns him but why are Feds odds so low??? I think Nadals hand will finally be too much for him to overcome. This is it for fed. Win, or forever be 17 slams

[poet]

Your right... I think this play merrits over the total.... I think we can both agree, this IS Federer's last chance to win a slam. He can move better than Berdych and wawrinka... I think he knows if he wins this vs Nadal he wins the title. Think about this... Berdych and wawa are tired befor even playing each other. I think this match goes 4 sets minimum. Both guys will be exhausted. I think Fed may pull a miracle off. Nadal owns him but why are Feds odds so low??? I think Nadals hand will finally be too much for him to overcome. This is it for fed. Win, or forever be 17 slams

I agree Matt, the line suggests that Fed has a real chance here, but here is the funny thing, I can also see him losing the final (if he gets passed Nadal) due to letdown, fatigue or some other reason; which would be sad, in an ironic way.

[frugalgambler]

Your right... I think this play merrits over the total.... I think we can both agree, this IS Federer's last chance to win a slam. He can move better than Berdych and wawrinka... I think he knows if he wins this vs Nadal he wins the title. Think about this... Berdych and wawa are tired befor even playing each other. I think this match goes 4 sets minimum. Both guys will be exhausted. I think Fed may pull a miracle off. Nadal owns him but why are Feds odds so low??? I think Nadals hand will finally be too much for him to overcome. This is it for fed. Win, or forever be 17 slams

You are forgetting the extra day of rest tonight's winner will be getting. Also, Wawrinka had a grueling match two days ago, but he also had a walkover earlier. The fatigue will not be a big factor for any of these guys. In fact if Feds/Nadal go 5 sets tomorrow they might run out of steam in the final. Frankly, I am surprised you missed that. Also, I do not think Feds or even Nadal move better than Wawrinka right now.

[poet]

You are forgetting the extra day of rest tonight's winner will be getting. Also, Wawrinka had a grueling match two days ago, but he also had a walkover earlier. The fatigue will not be a big factor for any of these guys. In fact if Feds/Nadal go 5 sets tomorrow they might run out of steam in the final. Frankly, I am surprised you missed that. Also, I do not think Feds or even Nadal move better than Wawrinka right now.

I think more than anything, Frug, Fed will have a huge mental edge over Wawa or Birdy. He has been to too many finals not to. That doesn't mean he will win but experience will be on his side. Also knowing that this might be his last best chance will give him an extra boost.

[frugalgambler]

I think more than anything, Frug, Fed will have a huge mental edge over Wawa or Birdy. He has been to too many finals not to. That doesn't mean he will win but experience will be on his side. Also knowing that this might be his last best chance will give him an extra boost.

As if that would not be the best chance for those two as well ? Yeah the experience will matter. We will see. I think the desperation factor is overrated, especially in tennis.

[poet]

As if that would not be the best chance for those two as well ? Yeah the experience will matter. We will see. I think the desperation factor is overrated, especially in tennis.

Also recall, this tournament, being the first of the year, has been kind to "old men" at times. Agassi won it, when he couldn't win the others, partly cause of the surface but also because he was fresher.

[frugalgambler]

Poet, I think you are jumping the gun. I am not so sure Feds can get by Nadal: Nadal even with a blister has weapons to own him. He will definitely step up his game compared to how he played yesterday.

[poet]

Poet, I think you are jumping the gun. I am not so sure Feds can get by Nadal: Nadal even with a blister has weapons to own him. He will definitely step up his game compared to how he played yesterday.

I just heard that they might close the roof for that match, due to potential rain. That would favor Fed, and might explain why the line has been dropping.

[poet]

I also recall that the match they played in Cinci last year was very close, and Fed could have won. As it turns out he lost on a ball that Nadal hit out. If Fed had challenged, it would have been deuce with the score at 5-3 and Fed down a break. But he was so disgusted with himself that he didn't challenge. At that time, Nadal was at the top of his game and Fed was trying to find himself. Things are different today. Fed has a great chance, if he doesn't choke on those break chances.

[poet]

The more I think about it, and in light of the stats I opened this thread with, the more I'm convinced that the best bet for Fed backers (or maybe the best bet period) is Fed to win the first set. In the ten times Fed has beaten Rafa he has only come back from losing the first set twice. Meanwhile, Rafa has come back from such a deficit 5 or 6 times against Fed. Hence, the first set is extra important for Fed. Also, Fed has been serving great and it will probably take Rafa a while to get a read on Fed's serve. In contrast, Rafa has served poorly in the first set of his last two matches, allowing the psychology of the blister/tape to affect him. As a Fed backer I will lay a couple of units on the first set, since the match (for Fed) will most likely be won or lost there.

[sluggy1616]

Fed's biggest problem (besides aging) is that he has (for whatever reason) become a bit of a choker when it comes to breaking his opponents, converting 37% of break point chances last year, which is 7% less than the previous year. And I think that number goes down further against top players and/or pressure filled matches (remember all the break chances he had against Robredo at the US Open last year). Yesterday, he could have beaten Andy in three, but again he was only 4 of 17 on break chances. This problem is compounded when he plays Rafa because Rafa does not give Fed many break opportunities: only 10 break chances for Fed in his last 4 matches against Rafa. Having said all this, Rafa is not serving great at this tournament (because of blister, tape, etc...). In his last three matches alone his opponents have had 22 break chances against him. Meanwhile, Fed's opponents (in his last five matches) have only had 11 break chances. Some of that has to do with quality of the opponents but it is also clear that Raffa is struggling with his serve a bit while Fed is not. Hence, I predict that Fed will get more opportunities to break Rafa than he is used to getting against him. But even if he does it might not matter much because Fed can't seem to break his opponents like he used to. Hence, the best bet might be the over, because if Fed serves well but can't break Rafa, then we are in for a long night.

Rafas last 3 matches were aginst Monfils, Nikosori & Dimotov. These guys are solid and were playing much better tennis against Rafa then they normally do.

[Hardcoar]

Thank you very much Frank!

[poet]

Rafas last 3 matches were aginst Monfils, Nikosori & Dimotov. These guys are solid and were playing much better tennis against Rafa then they normally do.

The serve is the one thing you have total control over. So to me, his opponents playing well doesn't tell us the whole story about Rafa's serve, especially since he has admitted that the blister/tape is bothering him when he is serving, or do you not follow/read these things? You could argue that one reason his opponents were having such success against him was because he was not serving as well. Besides, he whipped Monfils. It was after that match that his blister problem really got worse.