Berrer is marginal favourite over Llodra?

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/aus...hael-x8lpgCU5/

The bookies started at around 1.8-2.2 and now it's 1.7-2.3 with a slight shift caused by bettors....

What's going on? Match fitness alone dictates this, does it? The head to head isn't saying much. Despite Llodra's obvious higher degree of talent, skill and experience he is the underdog at a grandslam over a best of 5 sets simply because of match fitness?

Head to Head Matches Series tied 2-2
Oct 14 2013 Mouilleron-Le-Captif Ch (FRA)
Indoor Hard, SF		 (8)Berrer(173,2.15) d
(1)(WC)Llodra(58,3.25)		 6-4 6-3 $3.343
$1.332		 Recap
match stats
Sep 23 2013 Orleans Ch (FRA)
Indoor Hard, R16		 (2)(WC)Llodra(49,3.24) d
Berrer(160,1.79)		 6-3 7-6(3) $1.332
$3.343		 Recap
match stats
Jan 22 2007 Heilbronn Ch (GER)
Clay, F		 Berrer(157,1.11) d
(4)Llodra(93,2.65)		 6-5 ret. Recap
Feb 13 2006 Belgrade Ch (SCG)
Carpet, R32		 Llodra(141,1.28) d
(7)Berrer(116,0.91)		 6-3 6-2 Recap

Berrer has one complete victory over him, that was indoors, on an excessively quick indoors surface at a challenger event which carried very little meaning to husband and dad of 2.