1. 01-12-14 03:14 AM #1
    suicidekings
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    SK's Australian Open 2014 Picks Thread

    The Aussie Open is probably my favourite Tennis event of the year, due in no small part to the fact that games are typically starting after 5pm pacific time so I can actually watch most of them after work. Lots of value out there in props, and quite a few potential matchups I've got my eye on for the first few rounds.

    This is my first tennis thread after several seasons in the NBA/NFL/NCAAF subforums. Bets listed in the thread will be 1u = $50 CDN and 95% of them will be 1-3u plays, with an absolute max of 10u. All lines posted are from Pinnacle.

    Good luck everyone.
    Last edited by suicidekings; 01-12-14 at 03:38 AM.
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  2. 01-12-14 03:44 AM #2
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    Men's Quarter 1

    It's insane how difficult Rafael Nadal's path is in this quarter compared to that of Djokovic/Ferrer/Murray. His most likely series of opponents into the QF appears to be Tomic -> Sijsling -> Monfils -> Hewitt -> Del Potro. That's crazy. Nadal should handle Tomic/Sijsling fairly easily, but Monfils has started out this season totally healthy and looked extremely sharp in Doha, where he faced Nadal in the final. Gael is so good at tracking down balls that even a straight set win can involve a lot of long rallies and be very tiring on a hot day. Hewitt also showed himself to be reinvigorated coming into 2014, looking outstanding at Brisbane and in his exhibition match vs Murray. He's another guy that just doesn't give up easily, extending games and making opponents work hard. I think the Over will be the smart play in both the Hewitt & Monfils matches.

    Then, Del Potro in the QF could be a real challenge for Nadal, and I actually like Delpo to upset him at this point in a 4/5 setter match. Del Potro's path is substantially easier in my mind: R. Williams -> Bautista-Agut -> Paire -> Raonic -> Nadal. He will likely enter the QF much fresher than Nadal and well prepared. Delpo is currently +227 to win the first quarter (Nadal is -123), however I'm not sure there's a ton of benefit to playing it early vs waiting for the game ML.


    Men's Quarter 2

    Murray got bounced early at Doha by Florian Mayer, then only played one more match prior to the AO, which was an exhibition match against Hewitt at Kooyong. I thought he served very well in that game, but didn't look overly comfortable when Lleyton started moving the ball around a lot. Lots of aces, but a ton of unforced errors as he just wasn't able to get to the cross-court shots (To be fair, Hewitt was hitting the corners beautifully). He probably won't look great in his first 2-3 games, which should offer a pretty solid price on him in a potential matchup with John Isner in R4. Isner is his usual self this year. Great serve, average everything else. Isner is so tough to break that this match is screaming with potential on the Over, depending on the line. The outcome will really depend on how quickly Murray can round into form, but either way I would think 1-2 tie breaks are likely.

    Also in this quarter is Roger Federer, who should cruise through his first two matches before a potential matchup against Stakhovsky in R3, which will be their first meeting since Wimbledon last year. That will likely be followed by Tsonga/Murray if he can make it through. I like Tsonga to knock Federer out here. After 5 consecutive losses to Roger, Tsonga finally beat him 3-0 at the French Open last year, and as Roger continues to decline, there could be nice line value as Fed will be overpriced. If Tsonga makes it through, he will likely see Murray in the QF.

    Tsonga is +355 to win Q2. Fed is +250, while Murray is +137. I suppose I like Tsonga the best here, but not by a lot.
    Last edited by suicidekings; 01-12-14 at 04:21 AM.
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  3. 01-12-14 05:09 AM #3
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    Men's Quarter 3

    I hate this group. Tomas Berdych, Jerzy Janowicz, Jeremy Chardy, Kevin Anderson, Tommy Haas, and Mikhail Youzhny. It's a collection of misfit toys where inconsistency is the norm. And also David Ferrer, who has not looked great so far this year. In five matches, he's needed three sets in three of them, and lost the other two, 2-0. Ferrer should advance through the first two rounds and then face Jeremy Chardy in R3, who has the potential to beat him if Ferrer can't get his game sorted out quickly. R4 could be almost any of the 8 possible opponents before facing Berdych in the QF. Berdych has the easiest draw of the tournament, and is almost guaranteed a spot in the QF. Chardy to win the quarter at +3600 has potential, I think. I don't trust Ferrer right now, and these fast hard courts are Chardy's wheelhouse.

    Not much else to say about this one. I can only imagine the frustration that will likely go along with betting on any of these guys.


    Men's Quarter 4

    Last year, the Djokovic-Wawrinka match at the AO was incredible. They actually faced each other again at the US Open in July, with both matches going the full five sets. Lifetime, Novak has dominated Stan, but they've played some very close ones where Stan was so close to getting the better of Djokovic. This should be a great QF, and the Over seems prime. Outside of these two, the only other player in Q4 that's dangerous at all is Richard Gasquet, who Stan should see in R4. Novak is -700 to win the Q4, and he very likely takes it.
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  4. 01-12-14 05:45 AM #4
    suicidekings
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    1) ATP: JM Del Potro to win the Australian Open (+1279) x1
    2) ATP: Jeremy Chardy to win Quarter 3 (+3774) x0.2
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  5. 01-12-14 06:14 AM #5
    lucullus
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    Good write up
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  6. 01-12-14 06:04 PM #6
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    3) Falla-Kukushkin Over 37.5 games (-106) x1
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  7. 01-12-14 06:09 PM #7
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    4) Karlovic ML (+175) x1
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  8. 01-12-14 07:44 PM #8
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    5) Mahut ML (-160) x1
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  9. 01-12-14 07:59 PM #9
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    6) Chardy -2.5 sets (-118) x1
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  10. 01-13-14 12:25 AM #10
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    7) Groth ML (+205) x1
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  11. 01-13-14 08:46 AM #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    3) Falla-Kukushkin Over 37.5 games (-106) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    4) Karlovic ML (+175) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    5) Mahut ML (-160) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    6) Chardy -2.5 sets (-118) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    7) Groth ML (+205) x1

    2-3 (-1.6u)

    It was comical how over-matched Groth was in that match... Lots of aces, but otherwise Pospisil just pushed him around like a child.
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  12. 01-13-14 08:57 AM #12
    saints1856
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    Keep at it SK.... you'll turn it around. BOL
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  13. 01-13-14 07:19 PM #13
    suicidekings
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    8) Isner -2.5 sets (+102) x1
    9) Cibulkova -1.5 sets (-123) x1
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  14. 01-13-14 07:20 PM #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by saints1856 View Post
    Keep at it SK.... you'll turn it around. BOL
    Cheers, buddy. Here's to a profitable Aussie Open for all of us.
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  15. 01-13-14 10:25 PM #15
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    10) Seppi/Hewitt Over 37 (-112) x1
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  16. 01-13-14 10:42 PM #16
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    11) Smyczek / Bautista-Agut Over 33.5 (-116) x1
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  17. 01-14-14 12:37 AM #17
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    12) Murray / Soeda Over 28 (-109) x1

    Murray did not look sharp the last time he took the court. Soeda should be able to push at least one set deep enough to send this over.
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  18. 01-14-14 03:06 AM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    8) Isner -2.5 sets (+102) x1
     9) Cibulkova -1.5 sets (-123) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    10) Seppi/Hewitt Over 37 (-112) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    11) Smyczek / Bautista-Agut Over 33.5 (-116) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    12) Murray / Soeda Over 28 (-109) x1

    1/14: 2-2-1 (-0.25u)
    AO: 4-5-1 (-1.85u)
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  19. 01-14-14 07:18 PM #19
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    13) Chardy ML (+123) x1
    14) Janowicz -2.5 sets (+144) x1
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  20. 01-14-14 08:35 PM #20
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    15) LIVE (1st set, 4-3 Andujar): Janowicz ML (-136) x1
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  21. 01-14-14 11:47 PM #21
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    16) Riske - Wickmayer Under 21 (-112) x1
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  22. 01-14-14 11:52 PM #22
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    17) LIVE (1st set, 3-2 Querrey): Gulbis ML (-116) x1
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  23. 01-15-14 12:30 AM #23
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    18) Kevin Anderson -2.5 sets (+231) x1

    I really don't think Thiem is going to be able to handle Anderson's big serve, and really struggles to win his own service games at times... This should be very one-sided.
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  24. 01-15-14 12:58 AM #24
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    19) Pironkova ML (+145) x1
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  25. 01-15-14 03:23 AM #25
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    20) Pospisil ML (-212) x1
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  26. 01-15-14 03:58 AM #26
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    21) LIVE (4-1 Ebden, 1st set): Pospisil ML (+110) X1
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  27. 01-15-14 05:22 AM #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    20) Pospisil ML (-212) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    20) LIVE (4-1 Ebden, 1st set): Pospisil ML (+110) X1
    Aggregate: 3.12 to win 2.1

    LIVE (1-1 sets, 1-0 Pospisil in 3rd set): Ebden ML (+268) x1.15

    Zero risk to win ~0.9u on Pospisil.

    I don't like the risk in this game anymore. Pospisil not himself. All three of these ML plays will aggregate to be play #20.
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  28. 01-15-14 12:54 PM #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    13) Chardy ML (+123) x1
    14) Janowicz -2.5 sets (+144) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    15) LIVE (1st set, 4-3 Andujar): Janowicz ML (-136) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    16) Riske - Wickmayer Under 21 (-112) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    17) LIVE (1st set, 3-2 Querrey): Gulbis ML (-116) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    18) Kevin Anderson -2.5 sets (+231) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    19) Pironkova ML (+145) x1
    Quote Originally Posted by suicidekings View Post
    20) Pospisil ML (-212) x1
    LIVE (4-1 Ebden, 1st set): Pospisil ML (+110) X1
    LIVE (1-1 sets, 1-0 Pospisil in 3rd set): Ebden ML (+268) x1.15

    20) Aggregate: Pospisil ML to win +0.95u

    1/15: 5-3 +3.33u
    AO: 9-8-1 +1.48u
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  29. 01-15-14 03:38 PM #29
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    21) Giorgi +1.5 sets (-128) x1
    22) McHale / Wozniacki Over 20.5 games (-112) x1
    23) McHale ML (+290) x0.5
    Last edited by suicidekings; 01-15-14 at 04:28 PM.
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  30. 01-15-14 07:58 PM #30
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    24) Gilles Simon ML (+310) x1

    Two guys coming off 5 setters, but Simon is 3-0 against Cilic, lifetime. Seems worth it.
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  31. 01-15-14 08:36 PM #31
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    25) Sloane Stephens -5.5 (+106) x1
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  32. 01-15-14 10:41 PM #32
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    Where has this Wozniacki been all this time? She's pushing McHale around effortlessly...
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  33. 01-16-14 12:06 AM #33
    suicidekings
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    26) Parlay: Nadal -2.5 sets / Murray -2.5 sets / Federer -2.5 sets / Del Potro ML / Monfils ML (+109) x1
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  34. 01-16-14 12:10 AM #34
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    Which guys do you see not losing tonight?

    Trying to put together a parlay or something that is -300 to -500.
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  35. 01-16-14 12:14 AM #35
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    27) Federer / Kavcic Under 30 games (-115) x1
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