[MiddleMan]

I really like the Czechs here at about $3.30 (+230). I got on them this morning at $3.50 (+250), so I'm happy the line is moving in the right direction for me.

With a struggling Tipsarevic, both with form and injury, Zimonjic or Bozaljac may have to compete. Even if Tipsarevic plays, he will only be a 50/50 prospect to beat Stepanek, and will probably get his backside handed to him by the taller Berdych.

So providing Berdych and Stepanek both beat the lower Serbian seed, this at the very least levels the tie at two rubbers, before doubles are considered. As a Davis Cup pair, the Berdych/Stepanek duo is an impressive 11-1 in doubles, which includes a victory over Djokovic/Zimonjic a few years ago in the Davis Cup.

I know this relies on Tipsarevic either not playing or losing both of his games, and the Czechs winning the doubles, but even if a struggling Tipsaervic does play, Stepanek can take him. Afterall, when Janko was flying last year, it took a 9-7 victory in the fifth set for him to get past the Czech.

I honestly can't believe the value on the Czechs. Anything above $2.20 is exceptional value.

This doesn't even take into account the outside chance Berdych has to upset Djokovic. It is unlikely to happen, but Berdych has the extra three inches to trouble the world number two.

[frugalgambler]

I mentioned that I liked Czech chances in my fedcup thread, but Tipsy has almost a month to recover from his heel injury. Would have been great to know how serious it is. Basically it should come down to Stepanek vs Tipsarevic match, where under normal circumstances Tipsarevic is a ~-150-200 favorite. But you also should not forget that Berdych lost to Tipsarevich in 2011, in what was a preview of the upcoming final; their h2h is 5-5. Also, the crowd support in Serbia will be an important factor. So it all comes down to this: if Tipsarevic can recover in time for the final, Serbs should win it with a 75% chance as the odds indicate. If I can find out that Tipsy will not play or will not be at full strength, I will unload on the Czechs. If not, I might go with a 1/2 unit play. I do not expect the odds to move too much if at all. If anybody has any other angles or information that would be greatly appreciated.

[frugalgambler]

Just another fun angle: this event will be huge in Serbia; much bigger than the FedCup hoopla in Italy. Djokovic will do everything he can to win it; including practicing the doubles for a month, if needed. He already played through an injury once to secure the place in the final. Czechs on the other hand have already won it last year (at home) so they might not be able to find that extra extra gear to overcome the crowd hostility and Djokovic.