1. 10-15-13 04:36 PM #1
    gottimhimmel
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    Gottimhimmel's Picks (not always bets- WARNING) (updated at random)

    Oct 16th 2013

    Pick 1: Nieminen over Becker (separate thread posted) (.5 unit bet) (-230)

    Pick 2: Dodig over Verdasco

    Verdasco, although arguably over career spans the better player, is on a bad run as of late: this matchstat proves that: http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/672/4964/9863

    They have very similar stats, however they're playing on I_Hard, so you look for either discrepancies in the player's return or serve stats. Dodig has MUCH better stats on the ACES, which in a close match that might go to a tiebreaker will make all the difference in the world: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Share/He...=V306&oId=D646

    -He also has an advantage in break points saved.

    On my book he's listed as -135, this is fair enough value. (.5 bet)

    THREAD NOTE: HEY GUYS! yeah so please feel free to respond to any post I make, whether to agree, disagree or just add another pick you're making. I love hearing what other people have to say on this, because many of you have more experience at it than I do.
    Last edited by gottimhimmel; 10-15-13 at 05:47 PM. Reason: note
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  2. 10-16-13 12:05 AM #2
    frugalgambler
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    Verdasco has just took a set from both Djokovic and Raonic. If that Verdasco shows up, he will beat Dodig. This looks like a 50/50 match to me and I like Verdasco at + odds. Might take the over as well actually, after thinking about this.
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  3. 10-16-13 08:12 AM #3
    gottimhimmel
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    Jarkko: +.22 Units

    Dodig: -.5


    Last edited by gottimhimmel; 10-16-13 at 10:24 AM.
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  4. 10-16-13 10:49 AM #4
    gottimhimmel
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    .5 units on Guillermo Garcia Lopez

    http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/12083/961/9863

    Guillermo has been Playing matches on indoor courts more recently than Janowicz, and has a higher 4 week rating.

    - I'm really just looking at his good performance a couple of weeks ago on I_HARD in Russia, while looking at how all Janowicz has lost all 3 of his recent matches.

    Guillermo has better return stats than Janowicz, and just about equivalent return stats: http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/P...mf&y=2013&s=3#


    .5 units on Elena Vesnina

    http://www.matchstat.com/Compare/-4123/-480/-8458
    Elena has won 4/5 of their meetings on Hard court and has a MUCH better 52 week rating, and a slightly better 4 week rating.

    Elena is in her Backyard in MOSCOW. I don't think this should be overlooked.

    bol
    Last edited by gottimhimmel; 10-16-13 at 10:54 AM.
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  5. 10-16-13 11:01 AM #5
    losschaser
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    I agree with Vesnina though I seem to be the only one here riding on Janowicz
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  6. 10-16-13 01:33 PM #6
    gottimhimmel
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    GGL: -.5 units

    Vesnina:-.5 units.
    Last edited by gottimhimmel; 10-16-13 at 11:03 PM.
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  7. 10-17-13 11:19 PM #7
    gottimhimmel
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    Been Losing a lot lately. So I am lowering my wager amounts considerably until I either get into some more cash or win some bets.

    .2 units on Hantuchova at 3.35 over Pavlyuchenkova.
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