Originally Posted by
EaglesPhan36
Personally if I was betting the over, I would just go with the sets and not games. Sets can go lopsided especially in this sort of setting. If you think the match goes over, then you're obviously thinking Wawrika takes a set.
People often get caught up in what guys do in tournaments outside the Grand Slams. I think you have to understand that Slams as these guys all get a bit older become more and more of the focus. Losing a semi in Cincinnati doesn't mean shit if Djokovic wins the US Open. Nadal would trade his two Summer titles in a minute for the US Open title.
Djokovic may not be the robot we have become accustomed to, but these are the tournaments where Djokovic and Nadal play their best and are the most difficult to beat because of the five set format. Honestly if it were a quarterfinal or earlier, I'd probably rate Wawrinka a little better shot - but as I said before the first time semifinalists really do often struggle to produce.
Honestly the last one I remember who did well was Del Potro in 2009 when he won the whole thing. Here's a prime example of that first timer's syndrome ... 2010 Australian Open. Tsonga makes his first Slam semi after knocking off Djokovic in five sets in the QFs. Federer crushes him in straights. Cilic made his first Semi in that tournament too, won a set off Murray and then lost pretty straight forward 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. That's kind of what I think might show for Wawrinka.
I'm still weighing options on bets for tomorrow. Looking over all the props and what not. This is the more difficult of the semis to predict IMO because of Djokovic's real lack of a tough test and Wawrinka coming in as the first timer and coming off a match in which - yes he played well, but yes - his opponent was pathetic too.