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Hedging thoughts
One of my pre tournament value picks was Richard Gasquet to win the US Open at $301. I never actually considered him a realistic chance of winning the tournament, but I placed the bet with the plan to hedge my bet, as I really liked his quarter (easily the weakest quarter out of the four).
What I really want to know is if anyone considers the Frenchman a fair chance to beat David Ferrer.
I have $15 on Gasquet at $251 and a further $3 on him at $301 to win the tournament. I definitely shopped around for the best odds as soon as I saw the draw come out, and $251 were the best odds I could find initially. TAB Sportsbet were late in opening their market, and I had already placed my initial bet with Betstar before the TAB had Gasquet at $301. So at this stage I stand to make a $4650 profit if Gasquet wins. I'm not stupid, as I know there isn't a realistic chance of him winning another three matches, but I do give him some chance of beating Ferrer, so I want to know how many SBR members are on the same page as me.
These are my options:
Begin to hedge now and take Ferrer at $56 to win the tournament
Sit tight and hope that Gasquet can beat Ferrer, as well as hope that something miraculous happens in the Nadal/Robredo match.
Begin to hedge in the Semi Final, where his likely opponent will be Nadal.
With hedging, I would prefer to take Gasquet's next opponent to win the tournament, rather than the head to head match, based on two reasons.
A) If I invest a fair chunk of money on Ferrer to win the match, and he doesn't, I will then hedge even more money in the following match against Nadal. Here, two things COULD happen. 1) Gasquet could retire, which means I won't receive a winning dividend. Instead, I will have lost everything I staked on Gasquet to win the tournament, as well as everything I staked on Gasquet to lose in the QF. 2) Gasquet could beat Nadal and in the final, I find myself hedging again, against probably Novak or Andy... then if Gasquet retires in that match, I will have lost a shit load more money from my QF and SF hedge.
B) The other reason is simply due to the fact you get better odds hedging this way.
Example.
At the moment I stand to win $4650.
I could stake $83 on Ferrer at $56 to win the tournament ($4648 return). Either Ferrer or Gasquet will play Nadal in the Semi Final. I might get $2.30 on Nadal to win the tournament. I could then invest $1500 on Nadal to win the tournament, to return $3450. If Nadal wins and plays Novak or Andy in the final, I might be able to get $2 on either of them winning the championship. Here I could place $1725 on that happening to give me a return of $3450 either way. But then I will have spent $3326 and only made $124.
If Gasquet or Ferrer do something remarkable and actually make it to the final, I'm in a pretty bad situation and will be looking at an overall loss, so I'm not actually sure it's worth the risk.
Instead, I'm thinking of just riding my luck, hope that Gasquet can pull through against Ferrer, and hope that something happens to one or more of the top three.
Advice welcomed.
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