[Sam_Hawkins]

Yeah, if haas could've pulled it, it would've been a sweep day, but only the smallest play lost so nvm! Biggest profit a day so far
Yesterday: +5u
YTD: +5.9u

[Sam_Hawkins]

Play 1: Fed/Robredo Under 30.5 (1.1/1)
Play 2: Raonic+Nadal+Federer (1.15/1)
Play 3: Nadal 3-0+Ferrer (1.6/1)

[Sam_Hawkins]

Deleted. (My internet messes with me, posted the plays again.)

[jjgold]

sammy with a nice run

[Sam_Hawkins]

sammy with a nice run

well was about time I start making some profit...first day was good and then I got carried away a bit I guess and started burying myself.

[Sam_Hawkins]

Oh my god. That sucked. Total bunout.
Yesterday: -3.85u
YTD: +2.05u

[Sam_Hawkins]

Play 1: Djokovic 3-0 + Istomin +8.5 (1/1.04)
Play 2: Djokovic 3-0 + Williams/Navarro under 17.5 (1.17/1)
Play 3: Hewitt/Youzhny + Berdych/Wawrinka over 3.5 sets (0.87/1)
Play 4: Berdych + Djokovic/Granollers under 26.5 (0.75/1)

[jjgold]

Long way to go Sammy
Rain Fukked up courts which changed play yesterday

I can only bet total games , sometimes handicaps of match and of courses match odds

Too much to look at

Sammy good luck today

[Sam_Hawkins]

Hah thx, well as long as I'm in green, it's okay...however if nadal won the tb in first, I would be only minus ~1 unit for yesterday...fed's loss made me sad, so I gladly paid the units for the loss

[Sam_Hawkins]

after giving it a lot of thoughts, adding another youzhny+hewitt over 3.5 sets spiced up with some serena
Play 5: Youzhny+Hewitt o3.5 sets + Serena 2:0 (1.65/1)

[Sam_Hawkins]

Aaaaand there we have the youzhny/hewitt over

[Sam_Hawkins]

Almost won back all I managed to lost yesterday, my gains seem to be kinda fluctuating.
Yesterday: +3.29
YTD: +5.34

[Sam_Hawkins]

Let's try to squeeze in some challenger action...usually I think it's only good for taking dogs, but I think this parlay is pretty solid:
Play 1: Fabbiano+Haider-Maurer+Montanes (1/1.1)

[Sam_Hawkins]

Play 2: Sets: Ferrer/Gasquet o3.5 Nadal/Robredo u3.5 (1/1.1)

[Sam_Hawkins]

So the first play needs only montanes to close it out, Fabbiano had some troubles but was able to win in three. Adding another challenger parlay:
Play 3: Sela+Gimeno-Traver+Huta Galung (1/1.02)

[jjgold]

Sammy why challengers?

No way in trust them

How to you cape them

[Sam_Hawkins]

Sammy why challengers?

No way in trust them

How to you cape them

Me neither, trying to avoid them usually.

However, when I think I see a value, I go for it...usually bet on matches where I know the guy I am betting on eg. he won't tank just bc it's a challenger etc...

Take the first parlay...fabbiano seemed pretty solid against tipsarevic, game well suited for clay...his main domain is challengers so he should play 100 %...his opponent's success worth mentioning is mb defeating phau...line at 1.44 seemed fair to me...haider-maurer is a typical challenger-level clay grinder, who even defeated gulbis at USO few days ago...also I have been watching him for some time now...and well montanes should pull the win, he's ATP material, clay is his home. Naso did not play badly lately but should be no match for albert.

The second parlay? Well pretty much the same pattern - sela have been playing very good lately, again he whould do this in 2 sets agains lower-mediocre player...

But I aggree that if you are not thoroughly looking through the matches you are betting on, you will get burned very easily...matches at odds lower than 1.1 are being lost on daily basis. Also it is usually not worth betting more than 3-teamers.

[ParlayininHTown]

Sammy why challengers?

No way in trust them

How to you cape them

Early morning JJ must be Costa Rican or something ...

"No way in trust them" <----- ¿Que?

"How to you cape them" <----- ¿Que?


¡Órale amigo! ¡Necesitas más educación!


-- Grammar Nazi

[Sam_Hawkins]

ha-ha one challenger parlay lost, the other is about to go the same way. lol, just as we all knew.
Will jump on williams train here, adding:
Play 4: Williams sisters+Ferrer+Azarenka (1.5/1)

[Sam_Hawkins]

So montanes finally lost his match. What a spectacle. I have no fcking words for this match. Srsly. That was just wrong on so many levels. Home advatage did wonders - at Naso's BP @4-4 (last set), montanes hits a backheand winner on side line (at least it looked like it was on the line; it was on the court closer to the camera), line judge did not call out, naso just claimed out, hands high in the air and left to the bench, umpire did not even bother to check it, montanes gave no fck whatsoever.
So 0-2 on today challenger bets. Lesson learned. For like hundredth time. Gosh.

[jjgold]

-220 favs challengers lose a lot
Sammy listen go me
Your underestimating me with tennis

Best of my luck

[Sam_Hawkins]

B4 I go to bed:
1.1/1 on robredo/nadal under 29.5

[Hardcoar]

So montanes finally lost his match. What a spectacle. I have no fcking words for this match. Srsly. That was just wrong on so many levels. Home advatage did wonders - at Naso's BP @4-4 (last set), montanes hits a backheand winner on side line (at least it looked like it was on the line; it was on the court closer to the camera), line judge did not call out, naso just claimed out, hands high in the air and left to the bench, umpire did not even bother to check it, montanes gave no fck whatsoever.
So 0-2 on today challenger bets. Lesson learned. For like hundredth time. Gosh.

I actually just happened to catch that. What surprises me most is the fact that this followed fighting back to win 2:nd. Why would he do that if he didn't even care in the first place??

[Sam_Hawkins]

I actually just happened to catch that. What surprises me most is the fact that this followed fighting back to win 2:nd. Why would he do that if he didn't even care in the first place??

I don't know man! Those matches are so weird it scares me!!

[Sam_Hawkins]

Yesterday's disasteru was in the end not so big disaster, thank god.
Yesterday: -1.4u
YTD: +3.94u

[Sam_Hawkins]

So far only play for today I like:
Play 1: Murray/Wawa o3.5 sets

[Sam_Hawkins]

adding:
Play 2: Murray+Djokovic/Youzhny u3.5 sets (1.5/1)

[Sam_Hawkins]

So that would be it for today. No hard feelings tho, I still think the bets I placed were not bad ones, just couldn't really expect this...Wawa played a match of his life, came up with a great gameplan, sticked to it and executed it perfectly...and on top of that murray sprayed a lot of UEs. The service game in second set when he got broken was cucial. Three very novice UEs to 0-40...I felt that if he could hold on with wawa to 4-4 or 5-5, wawrinka would start his choke exercise.
On to the next one.
YTD: +0.9

Earlier today I took a play on nadal:
Play 1: Nadal/Gasquet u3.5 sets (2.5/1)
Play 2: Nadal -8.5 (1.5/1)

Note: pretty sure nadal will wash gasquet out of the court. Reasons:
1) Gasquet played 2 five-setters as his last two matches
2) Nadal in his best form I dare to say ever, at least for hardcourts
3) If I'm looking right, Gaqa never took a set off nadal and the sets were not even close in most of the cases (Last match, on grass: 6:3 6:0 6:1)
4) Gasquet's successful tactic against ferrer won't work here at all...keep the ball in play? Let the opponent attack? Dude. (Yes, he could try going for winners but that will have a short end.)

[Sam_Hawkins]

Soooo here we go, as I mentioned, I will play a big play today on nadal winning in 3 sets. (since I get better odds on under 3.5 sets, I will play that bet)

Plays still pending:
Play 1: Nadal/Gasquet u3.5 sets (2.5/1)
Play 2: Nadal -8.5 (1.5/1)

Adding:
Play 3: Nadal -8.5 + Djokovic (2.13/2)

Aaaand play of the month:
Play X: Nadal/Gasquet under 3.5 sets (20/8)

Disclaimer: Feel free to tail, keep in mind tho that even nadal can stumble. I played it big since I did not like any game this USO so much. The reasons are above plus another very important factor (as EP pointed out) is that Gaqa plays his first slam SF. However improbable it seems to me, every "lock" sometimes fails - imho the only possibility here would be nadal health issues.
So, don't bet bigger than you can afford, please. I, personally, have a unit size really, really small, compared to majority of bettors here - compared to you I basically play for monopoly money. The reason is, I bet for fun, I never wanted to earn money that way (maybe for few beers or something). Also, I am a student and say $100 is a lot for me - it is actually around 2/3 of my monthly rent! So I can reload easily at any time with literally lunch money.

So keep it safe and let's cash it!!!

[Hardcoar]

Where the f*ck do you live... South-East Siberia!?

[Sam_Hawkins]

Well let's say we're facing argentina next davis cup match

[Sam_Hawkins]

Well so the biggest play hit, but oh man that was close. Totally did not expect that, underestimated gasquet very much. Haven't seen first half of the match, but the wind definitely played the role plus nadal got broken for the first time which kinda lowered his self-confidence. He seemed not to be playing his typical dominant game, maybe cos gasquet played that well.
Now I can say it was not a very good play - it hit tho, but let's take it as a warning for another plays like that

Yesterday: +5.37u
YTD: +6.27u

[Sam_Hawkins]

Well I wanted to play nadal in the finals, but only for a plus money. now that he dropped drastically from 2.25 to 1.5ish (i did not have chance to take him earlier) I will probably just play an over...
Djokovic could be a good choice at plus money but dunno, I think nadal will do it.

[Hardcoar]

Well let's say we're facing argentina next davis cup match

I have no idea what nation that is but I'm going to go with... Czech Rep.

Surely some east-European commie-infested hellhole at any rate.

AMIRITE!?

[Sam_Hawkins]

I have no idea what nation that is but I'm going to go with... Czech Rep.

Surely some east-European commie-infested hellhole at any rate.

AMIRITE!?

Apart from the fact that it is more central europe...you're totally right.