1. #1
    MiddleMan
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    US Open Futures

    I've got four value bets for the US Open Titles.

    I'm not expecting any of these players to actually win at Flushing Meadow, but I give all of them a very high chance of making it to the third round, and with a bit of luck, I'm hoping a couple of them go on to make the Semi Finals where I can hedge my bets and make a tidy profit.

    Richard Gasquet
    I initially got him at $251 with Betstar and placed half a unit on him. I later noticed him at $301 with TAB when they opened their markets, so I put an extra 0.1 units on him. He is in the weakest quarter of the draw, which features David Ferrer as the headline seed, as well as the likes of Janowicz, Raonic and Gulbis. He is 16-5 on hard court this year and has a very easy draw. He faces the veteran Michael Russell "Athletic" in the first round, and then a qualifier in the second round. He then likely comes up against the lowest seed in the draw in the third round, Russian Dmitry Tursunov. While this will be no push over, I fancy Gasquet would get through to the fourth round, where he would take on Raonic in a toss of the coin encounter. He has one of the more remarkable Grand Slam records in terms of consistency in recent times. Since the 2010 US Open, Gasquet has reached exactly the fourth round of a Grand Slam in nine out of twelve Grand Slams (including six of the last seven and eight of the last ten).

    Ernest Gulbis
    I got him at $251 with Betstar for half a unit. He too is in the weakest quarter, but at the opposite end to Gasquet (so they could meet each other in the Quarters). He boasts an impressive 16-3 hard court record this year, which is the best record in the entire quarter. He faces the 88th ranked Haider-Maurer in the opening round, a player who has never been beyond the second round at a Grand Slam. It is likely to be a very straight forward win for Gulbis. In the second round, the Latvian will then face a Qualifier, which you would have to assume should be an easy path into the third round. In the third round, he then faces David Ferrer, but it's a match that Gulbis is more than capable of winning. Their crossover match comparison is interesting and favours Gulbis. On a hard court earlier this year, Andy Murray defeated Ferrer in three sets. A couple of weeks ago, Gulbis defeated Murray on a hard court in straight sets. In March, both players defeated Tommy Haas on a hard court in three sets. Both players have also played Nadal this year, with Ferrer losing to him in straight sets, and Gulbis managing to take a set off the Spaniard. On top of that, Ferrer's 17-6 hard court record this year is inferior to that of the Latvian's. If he gets past Ferrer, it is likely he will also get past his fourth round match, likely to be either Janowicz or Tipsarevic. I then have the opportunity to hedge my bet for a tidy profit.

    A dream scenario for me would be for Gulbis and Gasquet to meet each other in the Quarter Final, as I won't have to do anything in terms of hedging my bets, and can just enjoy seeing one of them progress through to the Semis.

    Julien Benneteau
    I like him to reach the third round and I have placed 0.1 units on him at the value odds of $2001 with TAB. The fact he is a seed means he doesn't play another seed until the third round, so I was happy to take the $2001 on offer. He will probably come up against Berdych in the third round, so I'm not expecting him to win, but I can rely on some luck to see him advance further than expected so I can hedge for a tidy profit.

    Sara Errani
    My only bet on the woman's draw is a beauty. I got her at $151 with Bookmaker when I heard of Sharapova's withdrawal, which meant Errani moved to the key #4 seed. Due to this, I expect her to make it through to the Semis, as her toughest opponents are Wozniacki, Vinci and Kirilenko, all players I would expect Errani to beat (despite her doubles partner beating her last week). Granted she isn't in the best of form, but she made the Semis here last year, so she will be confident of having a solid tournament.
    Last edited by MiddleMan; 08-23-13 at 06:15 PM.

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