[Noleafclover]

I'm a newer better who's had some success in NFL (45ish% profit 2011, 35ish% 2012) with aggressive bet sizing (5-10%), conservative amount of plays, and generally favorite plays ATS with a preference for teases.

I tried tennis out last year with a similar strategy, and it was quite the rollercoaster - up to 75% and down to -10%. Hoping to make a better show of it this year - I want as much experience in different sports so I can feel comfortable looking at lines for all of them when I try to make a go of this, the more lines the more comfortable I'll be only picking ones I really like (theoretically). And yeah, I am airbetting right now. At least until NFL.

For previous history, you can browse through here: http://natesbets.wordpress.com/category/tennis/
And for last year's here: http://natesnfl11betting.blogspot.com

Will do writeups sometimes.

1 unit=200 on those pages=5%
For bets -101 or lower, bets are to win x units
For bets +101 or better, bets are risking x units

Les go

[Noleafclover]

Well, lets conservatively start with five bets.

All 1 unit-

Dimitrov -4 v Sela -135
Hewitt/Russell < 21.5 -110
Paire -3.5 v Baker -126
Thiemo de Bakker -1.5 v Bozoljac+117
Daniel Brands -3.5 v Hernych -108

[Noleafclover]

Aand Hewitt covers just the side leaving me looking like a tool for taking the under to save juice

Dimitrov looked ticked off Sela was out there just hittin 'em back. I don't think he has the patience for that style of play from relatively lower-ranked players, and didn't give it his all.

YTD 2-3 -1.36 units

for tomorrow 1 unit on

• Benneteau -3 v Berankis -105
• lopez -2.5 v Mannarino -113

[newjerseydevils]

welcome and good luck!

[Hardcoar]

Seconded.

[Noleafclover]

Thanks ya'll.

ytd 3-4 -1.49 units

cilic -3 v dodig -114
youzhny over nishikori +114

[Noleafclover]

Haas/Monfils > 23.5 -108
Berdych -3 v Cilic -104

still 1 unit

[Noleafclover]

ytd 6-5 +.61 units

youzhny/gasquet to go 3 sets +157

[Noleafclover]

ytd 6-6 -.39 units

llodra -3.5 v hernych -120
benneteau -1.5 v tomic -108

[Noleafclover]

ytd 6-8 -2.67 units

haas -6.5 -130 v Tursunov
anderson -6 -125 v Rochus
Djokovic or Nadal to win Wimbledon -163

[Noleafclover]

ytd 8-8 -.67 units

melzer -3 v reister -120
hewitt -6 v brown -145
youzhny -6 v pospisil -130

[Noleafclover]

2 units on melzer

[Noleafclover]

ytd 8-10 -3.42 units

Haas/wong < 30 -115
Youzhny -2.5 v Troicki -115
Melzer over Stakhovsky +112

[Noleafclover]

ytd 10-10 -1.3 units
berdych -5 over anderson -120
haas - 4 lopez -105

[Noleafclover]

ytd 12-11 +.5 units

del potro -5.5 v Seppi -120

[Noleafclover]

ytd 13-11 +1.5 units

Ferrer over Del Potro -140

DelPo with the knee injury against Ferrer who will take him a little deeper into points. Did seem to favor it during/after the Seppi matchup (limping into hotel). Stylistically, have to like Ferrer to continue to own DelPo (lot of similarity to Tsonga) and he is 6-2 in the head to head, 4-0 since December of 2011, and 2-0 on grass without a set dropped.


—I think it IS worth laying the extra -15 for this straight up instead of against the spread if you play at 5dimes, as there’s the possibility DelPo could retire up a set, or near even/up on games, with the knee. Slim, but >3% of that or a miraculous nocover on a win, as I see it.

[Noleafclover]

ytd 13-12 +.1 units

djokovic over 10.5 aces -120
djokovic serves most aces +125

[Hardcoar]

I thought of props such as those, but you have to consider that these two are (apart from being two of the best servers in the world), by far and away the world's best returners.

That makes serving props very unpredictable as they aren't as reliant on the abilities of the server as usual.

At any rate, I hope you win your bets and enjoy the match!

[Noleafclover]

That should even out for the latter prop in theory; and if anything you say Djokovic is typically the better returner, no? But maybe you say it just makes the prop more unpredictable overall? Former was kind of a play to the over, did not see a 3-setter.

Anyway, Djokker looked like crap - certainly wasn't serving as he had been, as McEnroe also commented. Probably drained from the DelPo match, bleh.

[Noleafclover]

ytd 13-15 -3.73 units

Isner -2 v Harrison -110
Przysiezny/Kozlov u21½ -108

[Hardcoar]

Yeah overall since both are such amazing returners. You got unlucky though the way Djokobo had been serving every round before...

[Noleafclover]

I think so. Gonna roll a little less ... hardcore... though, 3 correlated bets on a contested match was nuts (future was out) . Pretty much a bet a day seems excessive, too.

ytd 14-16 -3.81 units

troicki -4 vs Souza -124

[Noleafclover]

ytd 15-16 -2.81 units

chardy -4 v Berrer -104

[Noleafclover]

ytd 15-17 -3.85

isner -2.5 v karlovic

[Noleafclover]

ytd 15-18 -5.05

kohlschreiber -3.5 -120
de bakker +195(to win 1unit)

[Noleafclover]

ytd 16-19 -4.563

kohlschreiber -2 -104

[Noleafclover]

Took Haase -2.5 -103, didn't post it. Getting lazy. Things are grim.

ytd 16-21 -6.633

robredo -3 +115

[Noleafclover]

ytd 16-22 -7.633

almagro -2.5 -113

falla -2 -114

[Noleafclover]

ytd 18-22 -5.63

fognini +120

[Noleafclover]

ytd 19-22 -4.43

fognini -3 v delbonis -116

[Noleafclover]

karlovic -1.5 v ebden -116
fognini -3.5 v de bakker -115

[Noleafclover]

ytd 20-23 -4.59 u

robredo -3 v troicki -120

[Noleafclover]

ytd 21-23 -3.59u

fognini -3.5 v klizan -101

wawrinka -3.5 v f lopez evens

[Noleafclover]

fognini -3 -101

[Noleafclover]

not even close baby
ytd 23-24 -2.59u

youzhny -3 v haase -110

edit: record