[BennyBigNuts]

I love watching tennis.
It's a fun sweat for action.
But to me, this looks like an automatic hammer-play.

I've bet on about 9 or 10 Djokavic matches and I've only lost one time betting on or against him.

Just seems like Nadal is an unbelievable price right now in this match??
Did he get hurt in his last match or something?
If he hasn't, I'm dropping a MASSIVE chunk on Rafa tomorrow.

Need some input from my tennis people.

I'm 0-3 in extra inning games this week and down about 5 units. I continue to have one of the WORST extra inning records of anyone I've ever met.

I'm thinking about diggin in the roll a little and slapping to win 6-8 units on this match to come out ahead for the week.

I wouldn't call this a chase bet, I just love the play here.

This is the only tourney slappabitch has never won. And it's cuz Rafa is just an absolute hog on the clay obviously.

Any thoughts why not to bet this?

[MoYaL]

[BennyBigNuts]

Ehhhhhh 2 sets. Not moved by it. Does this mean you're on Chokemybitch?

[BennyBigNuts]

Vegas prices are a little high on Nadal currently. Way better options with online books. Sucks for me.

[GoBlue77]

Smh...

[thirtytwo]

guess i have to agree, for a guy who has 57-1 record at this tournament -150 would be a steal of a price

[pinnacle420]

JOKERS GOING DOWN DONT OVERTHINK THIS BRO HAMMER NADEL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ohumad]

Shouldn't the Nadal line be dropping more? I thought the whole world is on him. Help a noob out.

[MoYaL]

Ehhhhhh 2 sets. Not moved by it. Does this mean you're on Chokemybitch?

It doesn't mean anything , You asked for a reason why not to bet it .
Joker has a good shot of beating Rafa tommorow , no idea if he will but thats clearly pretty even match imo

[Brooklyn Dick]

Nadal is not in top form. He is not hitting his usual high bouncing penetrating forehands that win a lot of points on clay. Joker is in top form. I like Joker +140 here. Even in top form it is down to the wire and +140 is value to me.

[sando]

Last two years these guys are 3-3 h2h on clay

"Slappabitch" had won 7 in a row against lefties and 15 in a row 5 set matches.

Novak dominated Rafa in their most recent meeting on clay @ Monte Carlo 6 weeks ago.

Odds are drifting on Nadal as big money comes in on Djokovic.

Djokovic with far better serve and in better form (this tournament) truly a 50/50 match, Nadals French Open legacy are what dictates these odds, but nothing lasts forever.

[ACoochy]

Nadal looking the fresher player coming into this match.

This isn't the joker of 2011 we are talking about people.

Only thing that concerns me is that Joker owns a big piece of real estate inside Rafa's head and maybe we see this when the pressures on...

[Mikail]

I usually jump on Djokovic when he faces Nadal. Not this time. Nadal is playing better tennis at the moment and I see him defeating Djokovic with just a minor amount of difficulty this match. Yes!

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm missing the "better" form comments about Djokovic. He was a bit sloppy at times in his last two matches, especially the 3rd set against Haas where he could/should have put him away much earlier, but was broken a couple times. Haas' return game was 0% and Haas nearly had the match even after two sets - but Djokovic rallied in the TB.

Since the weather has turned from damp/cold to sunny/warm, Nadal's game unsurprisingly has been better & better from Fognini through Wawrinka. The first few matches when people freaked out about him dropping sets, the conditions were cool and damp. Form-wise, I'd say they are fairly close to even.

Court conditions tomorrow will be better suited to Rafa's top spin with dry, warm conditions. It won't be the ultimate deciding factor, but it certainly helps Rafa a lot because everyone knows he doesn't enjoy damp court conditions and it does impact his game.

Not really a big movement on this match. 10-15 cents most places. Not uncommon when you get match-ups of top tier players when there is a separation in price, but both prices are relatively close to one another. More often than not, the dog is going to see early action and then people who like favorite may move the line back out.

As with most Big Four matches, I tend to like playing props over outcomes because it's really a coin flip most times.

[Goat Milk]

The odds are right. Djokovic is one of the best players of all time, you're calling him a choke artist? Last I remember he beat Rafa in the last 2 major finals, did he not?

I like Nadal to win this match. Clay is the most frustrating of all surfaces and if Novak is not on fire I really don't see him being able to have the consistent rhythm to win this match.

[BennyBigNuts]

The odds are right. Djokovic is one of the best players of all time, you're calling him a choke artist? Last I remember he beat Rafa in the last 2 major finals, did he not?

I like Nadal to win this match. Clay is the most frustrating of all surfaces and if Novak is not on fire I really don't see him being able to have the consistent rhythm to win this match.

Choke artist? Where do you see that?


As for everyone else's comments.........I see Nadal 57-1. And -150..
That's all I see.
Doesn't seem like an "Even to 3-2 favorite" to me. The line seems to be way off because of Djokavic's name.
And also boys, I definitely wouldn't say Novak has looked good so far. The part of the one match I watched he was frustrated and struggled vs. some no name.

[ohumad]

Not really a big movement on this match. 10-15 cents most places. Not uncommon when you get match-ups of top tier players when there is a separation in price, but both prices are relatively close to one another. More often than not, the dog is going to see early action and then people who like favorite may move the line back out.

Good to know!

[EaglesPhan36]

Choke artist? Where do you see that?


As for everyone else's comments.........I see Nadal 57-1. And -150..
That's all I see.
Doesn't seem like an "Even to 3-2 favorite" to me. The line seems to be way off because of Djokavic's name.
And also boys, I definitely wouldn't say Novak has looked good so far. The part of the one match I watched he was frustrated and struggled vs. some no name.

It's silly to get caught up in #s only though. We're talking the two elite players on this surface and the two elite players in the ATP right now. Unless 57 of those 58 wins came against Djokovic, that mark shouldn't be a high impact point for why you do or don't like him here. Rafa had just as sterling a mark in Monte Carlo ... before Djokovic beat him in the final there this year. 48-1, now 48-2 with that loss in Monte Carlo.

[baconbets]

i heard some live match commentary about a djokovic blister. anyone know the scoop? he will need to run a net 10 miles in a 5 set match against nadal.

[ohumad]

Choke artist? Where do you see that?


As for everyone else's comments.........I see Nadal 57-1. And -150..
That's all I see.
Doesn't seem like an "Even to 3-2 favorite" to me. The line seems to be way off because of Djokavic's name.
And also boys, I definitely wouldn't say Novak has looked good so far. The part of the one match I watched he was frustrated and struggled vs. some no name.

A Djokovic win tomorrow would be fcking huge: it's the sole slam he's missing (still the "finals" to go of course), he's dedicating this run to his first tennis coach who just passed, and he's playing on Nadal's court. It's too bad this is a SF. He's probably glad that Nadal is in form so he can say he beat the best clay courter o all time when he was on. Anyway not arguing motivation cause who the fk likes to lose?

Djoker is a champ so he'll raise his level of play tomorrow. I like his chances. He knows how to beat Nadal on clay. He's the one person who can challenge Nadal's clay supremacy and at these odds that's where the value is imo. Nadal wasn't at 100% in Monte-Carlo but I still think the loss means something. Nadal said himself “Today, he was better than me… He's a fantastic player. If you are not at 100 per cent, [it] is very difficult to win against these kinds of players. His game is very complete. To win, I have to play my best and I have to bring him to the limit.”

It seems like you're pretty convinced BigNuts but this is far from a

[sando]

Benny - You asked for reasons not to bet this and I threw a few at you, that's all. I'm not taking Djokovic and nor am I betting this match myself, I'm far more interested in the Tsonga/Ferrer semi, however I don't think it matters what anyone says, your obviously sold on Nadal and convinced there is "great value" @ -150 against the only man who can, has and quite possibly will beat him on dirt. Your a solid capper and there a so many sporting events on this w/e. Find something else to go so big on, this isn't the play.

[mtc44380]

I am on Nadal in straight sets for +320. I think Nadal will take the first 2 sets, probably 6-3, 7-5, and I just hope that he can close out the match in the 3rd. -150 is a good price, but I am hoping that the public sees the Joker victory last match and hammers him, dropping the line to -125ish, and then I will bet it.

[BennyBigNuts]

I'm locked n loaded looking for the moon shot today.
4 big parlays 2 teams each
Nadal-Phils
Nadal- oak
Nadal- Nats (Rained out so it's a straight bet now)
Nadal- Kings

Hopefully I do ok going into the NAdal match and don't have to punload a straight bet on him.

[baconbets]

if you like nadal enough to take him against djokovic, then you must really like his chances against ferrer or tsonga. take nadal's future, which is around even money. otherwise he will be about -500 to -1000 in the finals.

[KushMoney]

Djokovic 3-1 +500

or

Nadal 3-2 +500


I guarantee one of those will hit.


First Set Winner:

Djokovic +115

[BennyBigNuts]

I'm locked n loaded looking for the moon shot today.
4 big parlays 2 teams each
Nadal-Phils
Nadal- oak
Nadal- Nats (Rained out so it's a straight bet now)
Nadal- Kings

Hopefully I do ok going into the NAdal match and don't have to punload a straight bet on him.

Ton of action on Nadal now.
Fukking Kings choked at home only loser.
No need for the Nadal straight bet hammer.

[BennyBigNuts]

All my fellow Nadal bettors on here who wanna sweat this match in-game, feel free to check-in later (7am eastern).
Most action I've ever had on a tennis match lol.

[BigDeem5]

I'm big on him gnight

[PharaohUB]

Im on Joker. Been watching all the matches and just a gut feel. Nobody has really challenged Nadal. Wawrinka played about as awful as he has all year. Unforced error after unforced error. Fognini played a good set and that's about all he's seen this tournament and he was able to challenge Nadal. Joker has just looked more solid in my opinion and I just think he wants this more. As someone said he has never won this grand slam. I've got 200 on djokovic. Expect I will wake up around 8 eastern time to djokovic finishing off the match in 4.

[TheMetsSuck]

nadal easy money. more worried about tsonga in the finals at this point. He may be a tougher out than most think. If Ferrer beats him you might as well just give Nadal the trophy tomorrow

[No coincidences]

Only thing that concerns me is that Joker owns a big piece of real estate inside Rafa's head and maybe we see this when the pressures on...

LOL -- great line.

[Robber]

A lot of morons on the Internet acting like 57-1 is the only stat that matters and that it somehow means Nadal can't lose

I hoped these morons would drive the line up but these morons are broke morons like Benny

Djokovic is every bit nadals equal on clay

Look at what Nadal had going at Monte Carlo

Benny put his whole allowance on Nadal and the line didn't budge from tht massive wager

[baconbets]

all the pressure is on nadal here. this is supposed to be his "gimme" slam, but even this is in doubt. the "king of clay," best clay player of all time, 26 years old, in his prime, is -150. whats life going to be like for nadal on hard and grass if he cant beat djokovic here? djokovic's season is intact even if he doesnt win any more slams.

funny thing: nadal's price was actually lower earlier in the tournament. how can someone's price actually get better as the tournament advances? because nadal's future was based on the possibility of djokovic possibly being knocked out. now that he has to face djokovic, the future price is actually better than it was before. that speaks volumes.

[TheMLBKing]

A lot of morons on the Internet acting like 57-1 is the only stat that matters and that it somehow means Nadal can't lose

I hoped these morons would drive the line up but these morons are broke morons like Benny

Djokovic is every bit nadals equal on clay

Look at what Nadal had going at Monte Carlo

Benny put his whole allowance on Nadal and the line didn't budge from tht massive wager

this. At the very least, Joker will put a scare into all you Nadal backers when he wins one of the first 2 sets.

[horja1]

Wawrinka played about as awful as he has all year.

Wawrinka won 1 tourney and played 2 more finals, almost won against Djokovic at Australian Open, won against Gasquet, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer, Dimitrov, Murray, Almagro, and he was awfull this year? you're funny