[KushMoney]

HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


Everything else doesn't matter.


Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.

[Robber]

Wawrinka won 1 tourney and played 2 more finals, almost won against Djokovic at Australian Open, won against Gasquet, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer, Dimitrov, Murray, Almagro, and he was awfull this year? you're funny

No he was saying it was as bad as he's looked this year

He's been very good this year

[Robber]

HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


Everything else doesn't matter.


Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.

What's the logic for Novak first set as opposed to 2nd or 3rd

[Inkwell77]

I see absolutely zero value on Nadal.

Playing the best player in the world who you just lost to 6-2 7-6 a few weeks ago. Joker 8-3 vs Nadal since the 2011 season.
Last year in the French Nadal greatly benefitted from the weather, imo.

[TheMLBKing]

I am on Nadal in straight sets for +320. I think Nadal will take the first 2 sets, probably 6-3, 7-5, and I just hope that he can close out the match in the 3rd. -150 is a good price, but I am hoping that the public sees the Joker victory last match and hammers him, dropping the line to -125ish, and then I will bet it.

don't worry, they'll split the first 2 sets anyway.

[Hangoverblack]

WAGERTYPE: DATE: TEAM: RISKING / TO WIN TICKET#:
STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 MU [4257] DJOKOVIC, NOVAK +135 (DJOKOVIC, NOVAK vrs NADAL, RAFAEL) 955.00 USD / 1289.00 USD 29435119

Djoker's line gets shorter... So much for a better price before the match.

Good luck gents

[GoBlue77]

WAGERTYPE: DATE: TEAM: RISKING / TO WIN TICKET#:
STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 MU [4257] DJOKOVIC, NOVAK +135 (DJOKOVIC, NOVAK vrs NADAL, RAFAEL) 955.00 USD / 1289.00 USD 29435119

Djoker's line gets shorter... So much for a better price before the match.



Good luck gents

shoulda waited broski, +155 now... went back up

[samus82]

The last time these 2 played Nadal was only recently back from injury and still picking up his game. He certainly hasn't looked as good as he has in the past in this tournament, but he has improved each match and looked very impressive against Wawrinka. As his form has improved so has his confidence, you only need to compare his body language here to that in Rome to see the difference in his attitude.

Nadal's record at Roland Garros can't be argued with, it's amazing. Last time they played here Nadal beat Djoko fairly comfortably although the rain break did help. I see why people are trying to hunt the value choosing Djoko but to say there is no value on Nadal is just foolish.

[samus82]

Btw just to add Nadal's record at Roland Garros is 57-1, record against Djoko at RG - 4-0.

[Ron29301]

WAGERTYPE: DATE: TEAM: RISKING / TO WIN TICKET#:
STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 MU [4257] DJOKOVIC, NOVAK +135 (DJOKOVIC, NOVAK vrs NADAL, RAFAEL) 955.00 USD / 1289.00 USD 29435119

Djoker's line gets shorter... So much for a better price before the match.

Good luck gents

Lets Roll!!!

ONLINE 06/07/2013 01:18 AM

[Ticket #: ] STRAIGHT BET 06/07/2013 @ 08:00 AM MU [4257] NOVAK DJOKOVIC +125 (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs RAFAEL NADAL) 300.00 375.00

[Ontnr]

The last time these 2 played Nadal was only recently back from injury and still picking up his game. He certainly hasn't looked as good as he has in the past in this tournament, but he has improved each match and looked very impressive against Wawrinka. As his form has improved so has his confidence, you only need to compare his body language here to that in Rome to see the difference in his attitude.

Nadal's record at Roland Garros can't be argued with, it's amazing. Last time they played here Nadal beat Djoko fairly comfortably although the rain break did help. I see why people are trying to hunt the value choosing Djoko but to say there is no value on Nadal is just foolish.

I feel that roughly 80 percent of the users on this forum that use the word 'value' don't really know what it means, despite the relative simplicity of the concept.

To assume not only that one of the biggest tennis bet markets (grand slam SF, two best players in the world) are wrong, but so much off that it creates value on one side, and then go on to say that anyone who doesn't miraculously recognise this value is 'foolish', just doesn't understand the words he's using. And that's scary when it comes to gambling, since it can lose you a ton of money.

[aman86]

over 42 is the play

[sando]

HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


Everything else doesn't matter.


Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.

i like this bet.

[samus82]

I feel that roughly 80 percent of the users on this forum that uses the word 'value' doesn't really know what it means, despite the relative simplicity of the concept.

To assume not only that one of the biggest tennis bet markets (grand slam SF, two best players in the world) are wrong, but so much off that it creates value on one side, and then go on to say that anyone who doesn't miraculously recognise this value is 'foolish', just doesn't understand the words he's using. And that's scary when it comes to gambling, since it can lose you a ton of money.

I did not say to favor either way, or that the line was set incorrectly, I am simply stating anyone who is under estimating Nadal's chances in this match is foolish. If Nadal was 1/5 for a match like this, you could fairly say there is no value, but at 8/13 (I use english odds), there is value. Fair enough if you favor Djoko, but my point is that people on here have said there is no value in Nadal at all, that is foolish to say. It depends on what you believe will happen, but if you think that Nadal will win this match, 8/13 is a decent price considering his ability on clay and his record at RG.

I get your point about mis-using the term value, but I meant what I said.

[Ontnr]

I did not say to favor either way, or that the line was set incorrectly, I am simply stating anyone who is under estimating Nadal's chances in this match is foolish. If Nadal was 1/5 for a match like this, you could fairly say there is no value, but at 8/13 (I use english odds), there is value. Fair enough if you favor Djoko, but my point is that people on here have said there is no value in Nadal at all, that is foolish to say. It depends on what you believe will happen, but if you think that Nadal will win this match, 8/13 is a decent price considering his ability on clay and his record at RG.

I get your point about mis-using the term value, but I meant what I said.

That's okay mate. I don't have any strong personal opinions.. in other words, I have no reason to believe that the market is off, and I don't usually make big bets in these big markets unless I feel that I have an angle that there are good reasons is overlooked by the market.

Definition of value: The real probability of the positive outcome is higher than what the odds are implying. If the odds are 1.7, then the real probability of that outcome needs to be higher than 1/1.7 = 59% for there to be value. Since bookies take a pretty big margin, value is generally a pretty rare thing in big markets and not something that is 'easy' to recognise. The market isn't 50/50 geniuses and idiots..if it was, then the geniuses would easily be able to spot value and half of us would be winners. The reality is that almost everyone that gambles, loses money..in other words, they can't find the value.

Also, if there is value in Nadal, then by definiton the line is set incorrectly.

But hey, not saying that there can't be or isn't value in one of the sides, just that it's never "easy" to spot value and it's never "idiotic" to not spot it.., unless your standards are at the Genius level.

[BigDeem5]

When does this start?

[horja1]

When does this start?

started a few minutes ago

[samus82]

That's okay mate. I don't have any strong personal opinions.. in other words, I have no reason to believe that the market is off, and I don't usually make big bets in these big markets unless I feel that I have an angle that there are good reasons is overlooked by the market.

Definition of value: The real probability of the positive outcome is higher than what the odds are implying. If the odds are 1.7, then the real probability of that outcome needs to be higher than 1/1.7 = 59% for there to be value. Since bookies take a pretty big margin, value is generally a pretty rare thing in big markets and not something that is 'easy' to recognise. The market isn't 50/50 geniuses and idiots..if it was, then the geniuses would easily be able to spot value and half of us would be winners. The reality is that almost everyone that gambles, loses money..in other words, they can't find the value.

Also, if there is value in Nadal, then by definiton the line is set incorrectly.

But hey, not saying that there can't be or isn't value in one of the sides, just that it's never "easy" to spot value and it's never "idiotic" to not spot it.., unless your standards are at the Genius level.

That is not the definition of value, value means the worth of something. What you are suggesting is the potential difference in suggested price and actual price, like at an auction when you spot something that is that has been incorrectly valued (called a sleeper).

I appreciate within the gambling community that the term is used this way but it is often mis-used as you say.

[yisman]

That is not the definition of value, value means the worth of something. What you are suggesting is the potential difference in suggested price and actual price, like at an auction when you spot something that is that has been incorrectly valued (called a sleeper).

he described it correctly. There can only be value if the actual probability exceeds the implied probability.

[ohumad]

That's okay mate. I don't have any strong personal opinions.. in other words, I have no reason to believe that the market is off, and I don't usually make big bets in these big markets unless I feel that I have an angle that there are good reasons is overlooked by the market.

Definition of value: The real probability of the positive outcome is higher than what the odds are implying. If the odds are 1.7, then the real probability of that outcome needs to be higher than 1/1.7 = 59% for there to be value. Since bookies take a pretty big margin, value is generally a pretty rare thing in big markets and not something that is 'easy' to recognise. The market isn't 50/50 geniuses and idiots..if it was, then the geniuses would easily be able to spot value and half of us would be winners. The reality is that almost everyone that gambles, loses money..in other words, they can't find the value.

Also, if there is value in Nadal, then by definiton the line is set incorrectly.

But hey, not saying that there can't be or isn't value in one of the sides, just that it's never "easy" to spot value and it's never "idiotic" to not spot it.., unless your standards are at the Genius level.

In my opinion, because that's what it is, the value is on Djoker and you can take that to the bank!

[samus82]

I understand what you are saying, and I guess you are right as part of the definition for gambling, but the true English definition of the term value is different. I had a problem with people saying that there is no value in Nadal as to me that means someone says that the price offered has no literal value to bet on when really its a good price.

[TheMLBKing]

HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


Everything else doesn't matter.


Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.

buried.

[ohumad]

4.5 for djokovic down a set!? Put your house on that sht!

[BennyBigNuts]

6-4 nadal
He looks plain nasty today. That dry air makes his ball disgusting.
I like my spot right now.

[pouyasophy]

both players are amazing...not gonna bet but I love watching the 2 best go at it in tennis

[BennyBigNuts]

I see absolutely zero value on Nadal.

Playing the best player in the world who you just lost to 6-2 7-6 a few weeks ago. Joker 8-3 vs Nadal since the 2011 season.
Last year in the French Nadal greatly benefitted from the weather, imo.

Those are Jerkoff stats you just stated. Have nothing to do with the Clay buddy. Nadal pummels him like 12-3 lifetime.
Weather is in his favor for this match as well.
We ain't playing tiddly winks here brah.

[BennyBigNuts]

Most of the time, losing the first set is HUGE. But for chokemybitch, it means basically nothing. Never seen so much ice in the veins as this guy. He can comeback from any deficit. One of the only ones in this sport who can do it too.

[BennyBigNuts]

I will say chokeabitch looks a little flat and frustrated early. Nadal is just dominating so far.

[BennyBigNuts]

2-2 2nd set, I'd be shocked if Nadal doesn't win this one also. Seems to be cruising on his serve. Chokeabitch hasn't had a break point the whole match. Hasn't even threatened.

[TheMLBKing]

hopefully joker will win the third set to make this somewhat competitive. nadal wins the fourth.

[BennyBigNuts]

LOL

[BennyBigNuts]

hopefully joker will win the third set to make this somewhat competitive. nadal wins the fourth.

Don't know what you're watching. This looks like a straight set blowout sir.

[pouyasophy]

No joke will eventually make a run but rafa's still in cruise control

[infamousbacardi]

Nadal now 12 to 1 in sets won against Djokovic at Roland Garros. With the break in the second he's well on his way to 13 to 1.

[shari91]

Nadal now 12 to 1 in sets won against Djokovic at Roland Garros. With the break in the second he's well on his way to 13 to 1.

This exact statement was posted at Tennis Insight before you posted yours. Are you mistaflava?