[sarasmith]

Just trying to work out if its best to spread some money on Nadal at 2.0 and Djoker at 3.0 to win it all for a 20% return or to just wait for the final and take them v Ferrer or Tsonga but only if they wont be less than 1.2??

[ohumad]

Intersting, I'd imagine it'd be something close to that. These are the past odds going back to 2012.

3/2013 ATP Australian Open (AUS)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	David Ferrer	6-2 6-2 6-1		1/2	1.13	-	5.89
52/2012 ATP Mubadala World Tennis Championship (UAE)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	David Ferrer	6-0 6-3		1/2	1.29	-	3.56
35/2012 ATP U.S. Open (USA)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	David Ferrer	2-6 6-1 6-4 6-2		1/2	1.03	-	11.66
12/2012 ATP Miami (USA)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	David Ferrer	6-2 7-6(1)		1/4	1.16	-	5.15
3/2012 ATP Australian Open (AUS)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	David Ferrer	6-4 7-6(4) 6-1		1/4	1.08	-	7.8

20/2013 ATP Rome (ITA)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	David Ferrer	6-4 4-6 6-2		1/4	1.11	-	6.26
19/2013 ATP Madrid (ESP)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	David Ferrer	4-6 7-6(3) 6-0		1/4	1.08	-	7.36
9/2013 ATP Acapulco (MEX)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	David Ferrer	6-0 6-2		Final	1.49	-	2.6
22/2012 ATP French Open (FRA)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	David Ferrer	6-2 6-2 6-1		1/2	1.05	-	9.28
20/2012 ATP Rome (ITA)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	David Ferrer	7-6(6) 6-0		1/2	1.06	-	8.87
17/2012 ATP Barcelona (ESP)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	David Ferrer	7-6(1) 7-5		Final	1.04	-	10.83

10/2013 ATP Indian Wells (USA)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-3 6-1		1/4	1.12	-	5.99
45/2012 ATP London (GBR)	I_Hard	Novak Djokovic	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	7-6(4) 6-3		Robin	1.17	-	4.87
40/2012 ATP Beijing (CHN)	Hard	Novak Djokovic	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	7-6(4) 6-2		Final	1.2	-	4.46
31/2012 ATP London (GBR)	Grass	Novak Djokovic	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-1 7-5		1/4	1.23	-	4.07
22/2012 ATP French Open (FRA)	Clay	Novak Djokovic	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-1 5-7 5-7 7-6(6) 6-1		1/4	1.2	-	4.42
20/2012 ATP Rome (ITA)	Clay	Novak Djokovic	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	7-5 6-1		1/4	1.13	-	5.73

16/2013 ATP Monte-Carlo (MON)	Clay	Rafael Nadal	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-3 7-6(3)		1/2	1.1	-	6.72
12/2012 ATP Miami (USA)	Hard	Rafael Nadal	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	6-2 5-7 6-4		1/4	1.4	-	2.92

[sarasmith]

Thanks for the excellent reply. It looks like in the slams the odds are usually well below 1.2. I think Tsonga and Ferrer are playing close to their very best this tournament which might raise the odds a touch but I think we will still see 1.15 give or take in the final for Nadal or Djoker.

[Hardcoar]

It all depends on current circumstances obviously, but I'd give Tsonga or Ferrer both about @ 10 against Nadal and @ 8 against Djokobo.

[sarasmith]

Really that high? Look at the data above that would suggest 1.04-1.06 for the favourite which seems v steep.

[Hardcoar]

It's a guess, but you do realize actual odds with an @ 1.05 line would be @ 21, don't you?

[ohumad]

10 wouldn't be out of the question. Probably a good maximum highest odds vs Nadal.

09:20	Djokovic N. - Haas T.			1.11	6.84	17
09:20	Nadal R. - Wawrinka S.			1.06	9.78	17

[frugalgambler]

Right now at 5dimes, you can get the odds of -500 for Djoker/Nadal to win all. I would suggest hedging now; I just did.

[Hardcoar]

10 wouldn't be out of the question. Probably a good maximum highest odds vs Nadal.

09:20	Djokovic N. - Haas T.			1.11	6.84	17
09:20	Nadal R. - Wawrinka S.			1.06	9.78	17

Random-crap odds are always as irrelevant as can be when looking at what the odds of a certain player are. Refer to market odds, which are about @ 13. on Wawrinka currently. Haas @ 8.

[sarasmith]

It's a guess, but you do realize actual odds with an @ 1.05 line would be @ 21, don't you?

What do you mean? There is actual data in the second post showing that when the favourite is in the 8.0-10.0 range then the fave is around 1.05.

[Hardcoar]

I mean math. Those lines are plagued by awful margins.

Actual market yield (100 % payout):

1/0.05 = 20

Where:

Payout: 1 (100 %)
Favorite yield: 0.05 (1.0 is the stake)
Underdog yield: 20

The above gives:

Underdog odds: 20 + 1.0 = 21.

???
...
PROFIT!

[sarasmith]

You've completely lost me. All that matters to me is if I would see a better return from £5k taking Nadal/Djoker to win outright or waiting and backing them in the final. I can get a 20% return from the former and thanks to ohumads post I'm pretty sure I would be looking at a good bet less than that if I wait for the final.

[baconbets]

taking both guys to win the final right now doesnt make sense to me. their semi final match could be brutal and affect the winner's ability to compete in the final. better to wait for the final and see if there are any interesting props.

[Hardcoar]

You've completely lost me. All that matters to me is if I would see a better return from £5k taking Nadal/Djoker to win outright or waiting and backing them in the final. I can get a 20% return from the former and thanks to ohumads post I'm pretty sure I would be looking at a good bet less than that if I wait for the final.

No I haven't. You asked me what I meant. I was originally pointing out a major flaw in facts which you may have used to base your wagering on. It all depends on the odds you'll be able to bet on though, as previously stated.

I hope your future turns out to your liking, whichever way you decide – or don't decide – to hedge.

[Hardcoar]

taking both guys to win the final right now doesnt make sense to me. their semi final match could be brutal and affect the winner's ability to compete in the final. better to wait for the final and see if there are any interesting props.

Exactly. Konga and Ferret with the chance of a life-time!

[ohumad]

No I haven't. You asked me what I meant. I was originally pointing out a major flaw in facts which you may have used to base your wagering on. It all depends on the odds you'll be able to bet on though, as previously stated.

I hope your future turns out to your liking, whichever way you decide – or don't decide – to hedge.

You'd agree that odds won't likely be above 1.20 for the favourite though in the final?

[baconbets]

if nadal or djokovic are healthy and look good in the semis, -500 is a reasonable expectation for the final. for planning puposes, it doesnt really matter who wins the other half. the line will be similar against ferrer or tsonga.

edit: nadal was about -1000 and -750 over ferrer in madrid and rome. so, in a 5 set match, he might be even more expensive, like -1200. -500 would be a deal.

[baconbets]

if you really want to take both sides of the future, look for a combination prop. my book has male and female combined futures, meaning you can take nadal/serena and djokovic/serena. the result is a better payout, about 50% return if you take both lines, instead of 20%. thats assuming you dont have a problem relying on serena to win.

nadal/serena +160...bet $145 to win $232
djokovic/serena +275...bet $100 to win $275

risk $245 to win $130

[bihon]

Right now it is 1.20 @betfair.

Big 3 Vs Field

[Hardcoar]

You'd agree that odds won't likely be above 1.20 for the favourite though in the final?

Yup. My estimate is probably a bit high. A lot could also depend on how Djokovic–Nadal plays out.