[tevari]

Amazing price @ -103. Expected it to be around -170 or so. He has Wawrinka next, who I feel like shouldn't trouble him after his marathon with Gasquet. Not playing the fatigue angle, I just don't think his game is suited to combat Nadal's defense and wide angle shots. Wawrinka will go all out like he did against Djokovic at the Aussie Open but I expect a comfortable win for Nadal here. Then, he has the winner of Djokovic/Haas, which should be Djokovic. I havent' been impressed with his body of work this tournament. He did score a win over Nadal in Monte Carlo, but that match was an aberration IMO. No one in the other half of the draw concerns me.

Put a buck eight on him to continue his streak here.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Wawrinka 0-9 h2h without winning a set vs Rafa

[tevari]

IMO this is the books giving me -103 for Rafa/Djokovic. I'll take it.

[Bet10Heinekens]

I'm seeing +102

ATP French Open
Tue 6/4 9:30AM
all players have action
Rafael Nadal +102
Novak Djokovic +195
Roger Federer +1225
David Ferrer +1385
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +2500
Stanislas Wawrinka +11500
Tommy Haas +20500
Tommy Robredo +55000

[tevari]

Pretty legit. I'd hammer it.

[ohumad]

IMO this is the books giving me -103 for Rafa/Djokovic. I'll take it.

Good way to think of it.
No one believes in Djoker? To win is at +200 and I can't pass that up! Provided they win their matches the Djoker-Nadal final (the real one) is gonna be siiiiiiick. BOL

[Bet10Heinekens]

IMO this is the books giving me -103 for Rafa/Djokovic. I'll take it.

If Rafa reaches the final, you could alway hedge on the dog at +money and root for an upset on a freeroll

[tevari]

I could, but for 180 bucks I'll probably just let it ride.

[face]

futures section of 5 dimes has nadal win 5 cents cheaper than props section. +102

[EaglesPhan36]

I like this. Weather is playing into Rafa's hands now. Dry and faster and the forecast looks like that through the weekend.

[Demonata]

Great bet. Waw shouldn't be much trouble next match. So closer and closer to the final.

[baconbets]

wawrinka future starting to more and more like complete ass.

[GoBlue77]

Djokovic will beat Nadal.

With Joker's coach dying and him being extremely motivated already, I wouldnt want to be on the other side of that wager. Nadal will fall.

[EaglesPhan36]

Death of the coach's impact won't even be a telling factor by the time they play. It will have been several days. Will be on his mind obviously, but I think people overestimate things like this unless we're talking about the day something happened or the 1st time on-court since it happened. It was more likely to rattle him today which I think it did a little bit in the beginning set than it would "help" him against anyone.

I'll be on Nadal depending on the price if I feel like playing that one - barring some sort of injuries before a possible semifinal. I think the conditions are a much larger factor than anything else and after a first week in which they played against Nadal, they are much more in his favor now. Motivation to me is equal. This is Nadal's most treasured tournament. I think he'd trade the French Open Title for two working legs for the rest of the year. Djokovic would do the same.

[BrianLaverty]

I saw it at +130 at heritage yesterday.. But I still think djokovic wins it

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm waiting for the Final and if the price is Djoker +150 or higher vs Nadal, I see more value on Djokovic. He's gonna ready for Nadal this year. Djoker knows all the nuances it will take to beat Nadal on clay after his win over him at Monte Carlo. Better value on Djoker imo.

Best of luck though

[EaglesPhan36]

They won't meet in the final though. Semis homey.

[alta]

Already have positions on Nadal to win French.
May add more.
I believe Haas may do us a favor. I look for him to give Joker all he can handle in 1/4's.
He certainly won't be intimidated by Novak.

[Pinocchio]

I hope you win, so you can upgrade your OS, Windows Vista.

[Sawyer]

Haas is a dangerous player. He may pull off an upset vs Djoker. Vamos Nadal!

[dimejack]

The winner of the French Open 2013 is Djokovic
Nadal got his trophy in Italy 2 weeks ago. That's enough.

[tevari]

I think he'd trade the French Open Title for two working legs for the rest of the year.

QFT.

[tevari]

I just can't discount Nadal's clay court pedigree or his desire to win this title. Until someone dethrones him, I thought there was tremendous value w/ the line. I feel good about it.

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

I just can't discount Nadal's clay court pedigree or his desire to win this title. Until someone dethrones him, I thought there was tremendous value w/ the line. I feel good about it.

I made a small play on it as well a couple rounds back-what do you think the Rafa/Djoker line will be in the semis?

[tevari]

I'd imagine something like -220/+160. Aren't you my neighbor across the way in Hoboken?

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

I'd imagine something like -220/+160. Aren't you my neighbor across the way in Hoboken?

I was thinking maybe less than -200 but yes, I am in Hoboken-you're in Jersey City, right?
actually looking to move there sometime in the somewhat near future...

[tevari]

I live in Newport. Pricy but pretty nice. Especially for a shut-in like me

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

looking at some places in the Hamilton Park area today, very nice work through the French Open thus far

[tevari]

Thanks...TI is tipping Djokovic 7-1 so far, hmm.

[Hardcoar]

The occasion on which they also offer me 7/1 (@ 8, +700) on Nadal to win I'll take their word for it.

[shari91]

Thanks...TI is tipping Djokovic 7-1 so far, hmm.

Ignore that. Against Haas it was 57-34 Djoko because people were convinced the death of his old coach was going to sink him and instead he won in 3. A lot of people show up there during Slams with a 2wk membership and then disappear again. Skews the numbers so you have to take that with a grain of salt. I have a future on Nadal from a round before yours and I'm not worried but I'm also not in a position to really green out for much of anything so I have to ride it out. If I'm going to do that on anyone I prefer it to be on a guy who eats clay for breakfast.

[tevari]

To be honest, even without a subscription, I feel like the board as a whole is pretty sharp just by looking @ the number of tips. But, I'll hold steady with my conviction and let the wager ride.

[shari91]

To be honest, even without a subscription, I feel like the board as a whole is pretty sharp just by looking @ the number of tips. But, I'll hold steady with my conviction and let the wager ride.

No, they're not sharp. Not during a Slam anyway. Some of the regulars are but since you can't read the comments without a subscription you won't see when I put a tip on Mattek-Sands for example but say it's only for TI cash and would never put even $5 on it. Or you won't see when certain people always bet on the same players regardless ie Duncan and Ivanovic as he loves her feet (for those familiar with TI). You also can't see when people are really far in the hole TI cash wise and just trying to take dogs in the hopes of boosting their TI cash so they can get rewards from the site (days added on to your subscription). It's the same thing I warned EP about when he was fading TI when they were heavy on a dog because so many people say if TI is dog heavy it's sure to die. Without seeing the comments or knowing why people are tipping what they are for and against it's quite useless.

[tevari]

Good food for though I suppose.

[shari91]

Good food for though I suppose.

Definitely is but if you're going to peep over there you may as well shell out the $10 or whatever for a 2wk membership during a Slam so at least you can see why people are tipping how they are. And get a feel for how certain people tip. I love TI and will never not have a membership even if someday I have to pay for it again but truly my OnCourt purchase was the best thing I've ever bought for pure numbers. TI is great to see what people are saying and sometimes someone can translate an interview that Google blows at because it's their first language or whatever... awesome resource. But relying on tips for and against is dangerous. If Nadal wins or loses this match TI tipping will have had no bearing on it, just like they couldn't figure out if Djoko would be messed up against Haas. Look at their stats but without a membership ignore the tips because you don't know why they're being made. xo