[baconbets]

is there ever a good reason to take an underdog's future instead of the ML when facing a huge favorite if the huge favorite is also the favorite to win the quarter or half?

example: federer is the bottom half favorite. benneteau has challenged federer before. as a match price, benneteau is +1000, which is 10:1. benneteau is also 500:1 or +50000 as a futures price. if he gets past federer, his chances to win his half increase dramatically, and his futures price would also increase dramatically because the "biggest obstacle" in his quarter and his half is gone. i believe there are some sites that allow "exchanging" of lines (is it "betfair?"). sell the 500:1 line to someone who actually thinks benneteau can also get past tsonga, ferrer, etc in the bottom half. could this be a viable strategy?

same thing for serena williams. cirstea is 500:1. thats a one in five hundred chance that serena gets her period all over the court, sprains her ankle, gets DQed for potty mouth, etc. not terrible odds if you think about it that way, especially if you can "sell" the 500:1 price immediately after the match.

[bihon]

The future prices are usualy calculated with the most probable single matches scenario's.

E.g. for winning Paris Benneteau is expected to play Federer, Simon, Tsonga, Ferrer and Djokovic.
Multiplying his expected odds for each match gives the probable outright price.
At the moment even the odds of 1000 are too low for Benneteau.

But yes, there are opportunities in this exchange market if you know what are you doing.