[diegoelmestre]

Hi, i am a part-time bettor (I split my time with college) and my markets are men tennis, ATP and Challenger circuit. Recently i had some good results, so i will start to sharing my picks.


Hope catch your attention soon

Most of times i try to justify my picks. Some language error can occur, English is not my native language.

[CaptainOmar111]

Good Luck Bro Wish you the best luck , I will look into ur thread daily

[diegoelmestre]

Today's matches will start lately due rain, so i'll post my today's picks

Roland Garros 28/05

Stanislas Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.66 Pinnacle

I see no other outcome other than victory Stanislas Wawrinka in just three sets. The only thing that can prevent the bet is winning is a lack of match for Wawrinka. It is not for two weeks, so the first set is crucial for this bet to be the winner, but I believe that Wawrinka trained well and will present in great conditions. Instead, Thiemo de Bakker is going through a bad phase, has had some compromising defeats in recent weeks. Two athletes in moments so completely difference. That said, should beat Wawrinka in straight sets.

Janko Tipsarevic 3-0 @ 2.14 Pinnacle

None of the two players are in great shape. Still believe Tipsarevic will not only win this game as he will do in just three sets. Nicolas Mahut is very limited in movement and consistency in the bottom of the court and with high intensity of Tipsarevic, i believe Mahut will make many mistakes. This is because Mahut will have to run a lot and play the game you do not like, long exchanges of the ball. With an odd of 2.14 is very valuable in my opinion.

Horacio Zeballos to win @ 1.57 5Dimes

Horacio Zeballos has a serious chance to get back to winning. So hopefully Zeballos take the initiative of the match, he knows he faces a tennis somewhat limited on these surfaces. Vasek Pospisil can win some game thanks to his service, but whenever you pass the three, four strokes at one point, Zeballos start getting into competitive advantage. Zeballos is playing what he knows will win this match. With an odd at 1.65 seem to have much value given the qualities of both in this surface.

Florian Mayer @ 1.65 Marathonbet

A probability of 1.65 is very appetizing. Is exaggerated in my opinion, consider the appropriate balance between 1:35 to 1:40. Interestingly this has risen in past few hours. Florian Mayer will destroy Denis Istomin with his constant shots variations and rhythms, which will force Denis Istomin to move a lot, then the errors will start appear. Florian Mayer is competent and has more game to this surface, and I believe we will win this match, plus the probability has presented a lot of value.

Over 3.5 Sets (Ivan Dodig vs Guido Pella) @ 1.53 Bet365

In court two players who are playing good tennis. I think it will be a very interesting game, because they are two players with clear offensive characteristics. This match does not believe that neither can dominate the opponent so that only win in three sets. Should be a game with several variations of the domain in the match. Therefore, I believe that the game will have at least 4 sets.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 3-0 @ 2.71 Pinnacle

The Spanish have everything to win this match in straight sets. Jack Sock has a more limited defensive game and is less mobile than the Spanish. Predict a Garcia-Lopez punishing Jack Sock with large accelerations at the baseline and force the U.S. to run a lot, something that is not pleasing to Jack Sock. Then begin to emerge unforced errors. However, in a match to three sets is always difficult to keep high levels concentration, and this can be a reality in this meeting. However, with the odd 2.71, it seems to me there is much value in this bet. For Garcia-Lopez win in three sets is not so unreasonable.

[diegoelmestre]

Good Luck Bro Wish you the best luck , I will look into ur thread daily

Thank you. Hope we can make some good profit

[MasterBet]

Love the first and the last bets,good exp. on both ..

Wish you luck in your bets,very nice you put some input on each bet..

[diegoelmestre]

Over 3.5 Sets in Gimeno-Traver/Troicki @ 1.44 Bet365
I believe that this game will not be decided in less than 5 sets. ViktorTroicki is the favorite for this match, but he is a tennis player who lives of moments and he can lose his calm concentrationvery easily. Therefore I believe that Gimeno-Traver can take advantage of oneof these moments to win at least a set. Already Troicki, I also have enoughquality to win at least one set to Spanish. Pays little, but this'll bet seemsa 'banker'.

[diegoelmestre]

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -6.5 Games @ 1.793 Pinnacle

I believe in a good win for Tsonga. And if he play what he knows Tsongabelieve can meet the handicap of -6.5 games. I believe that one result ofgender 6-3 6-3 6-4 is quite possible, or even something like 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-3.Do not believe Tsonga lose more than a set. Jarkko Nieminen against Mathieu hada tough game, especially in their service. Had to take many games to theadvantages and defend many break points. Some moments in match the Finn alsodid not seem to be very comfortable physically. If Tsonga play aggressive willcause many difficulties and Nieminen have difficulties in returning many ballsor even get to the very heavy balls from Tsonga. Sooner or later believe itwill pay the bill for daring to have been a finalist in Dusseldorf, and haveneeded almost four hours to beat Mathieu. The fact that Paul-Henri Mathieu notbe at his best, despite having greatly improved in recent weeks, also did notconvince me much about Jarkko Nieminen current form.

[diegoelmestre]

Tiebreak during the match: Yes @ 1.40 Bet365

It will be a game dominated by each services games. Two players servingwell and with good volleys too. They are very strong in the first two, threestrokes of each point. Therefore I believe that in a best of five sets match hewill have at least one tie-break. It is true that pays little, but I'd say thisis a great bet tassel.

[diegoelmestre]

Under 28 Games (Devvarman/Federer) @ 1.813 Pinnacle

I expect an easy win for Roger Federer. The Indian is a defensiveplayer, and his offensive weapons are not that many. With conditions very slowand heavy that we had these days, Somdev Devvarman will have trouble makingwinners and cause trouble Federer. Federer already has more than enough weaponsto beat the Indian with some ease. I hope the result of the kind of Federeragainst Carreño Busta.

[diegoelmestre]

Stanislas Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.66 pinnacle
Janko Tipsarevic 3-0 @ 2.14 Pinnacle
Horacio Zeballos to win @ 1.57 5Dimes
Florian Mayer @ 1.65 Marathonbet
Over 3.5 Sets (Ivan Dodig vs Guido Pella) @ 1.53 Bet365
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 3-0 @ 2.71 Pinnacle
Over 3.5 Sets in Gimeno-Traver/Troicki @ 1.44 Bet365
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -6.5 Games @ 1.793 Pinnacle
Tiebreak during the match: Yes @ 1.40 Bet365
Under 28 Games (Devvarman/Federer) @ 1.813 Pinnacle

Record: 6-4-0 -0.10u

[diegoelmestre]

Tommy Haas 3-0 @ 1.862 Pinnacle

I saw the play Jack Sock againstGarcia-Lopez and not wanting to take the merit to the U.S., after all won injust three sets, the truth is that Garcia-Lopez was bad. The Spanish did notput a ball in court, accumulated UE after UE. This result is somewhatmisleading, I would say. Today the story will be different. Tommy Haas isplaying a lot and if plays at his maximum level I see no chance for Jack Sockcan stop the German machine. Will dominate the rallies making Jack Sock movefrom one side to the other. Jack Sock don’t like that very much. Prefer fastpoints.

Tommy Haas has been sick, have even taken antibiotics, but I believethat if it comes into court is because heis ready and available to giveeverything he has. Therefore I believe that will only win in three sets.


Richard Gasquet Under 18.5 Game @ 1.813 Pinnacle

Hopefully an easy victory for the French. Richard Gasquet is superior inall tennis related aspects, the first service may be an exception. From themoment that Gasquet can return the service of Polish this automatically entersadvantage. They are from league completely differente. So if Richard Gasquetplays at his best believe will win easily. 3-0 win to Gasquet don’t have enoughvalue, so I bet in less 18.5 Games for French. More risky because just atie-break, even win 3-0, the bet is lost. Still, it is odd to think that hasvalue.

Novak Djokovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.571 Pinnacle

The first round is always the hardest. I believe that today we will havea closer Novak Djokovic what can really give. Already Guido Pella is not very accustomedto these wanderings of five sets. After Tuesday marathon he may start showing some fatigue duringlate sets. Add to that the fact that it will face the first time one of the BigFour, even more so in a 'big stage' as is the Philippe Chatrier stadium. Withall these factors I believe Guido Pella not go have an easy match. This matchwill be a whirlwind of emotions to Guido Pella. At first service break of theArgentine, I think he will never be recovered. It will be a game eitherphysically and mentally too heavy to Pella. That's why I believe in easy winfor Novak Djokovic.

Over 38 Games (Tursunov/Hanescu) @ 1.877 Pinnacle

Match between two players who can serve very well and finish a point intwo or three strokes. This is one of those games that I can not see either ofthem to overwhelm the opponent, so do not think any will win in straight sets.There will be times that each of the athletes will be on top of events. Thedefensive level of Hanescu is no longer as when he has in his prime, andTursunov is not an defensive player by nature. I expect a fairly offensive gamewith both tennis players to bet on finishing the point quickly, especially Tursunov.Given that I believe that 38 games will be exceeded. I believe that at leastone or two sets will be solved with 7-5 or 7-6, a game decided by a 5th set isnot totally unreasonable. In four sets an outcome like 7-5 3-6 6-3 6-4 serves to be exceed the over.

[innn]

Pella does not know fatigue
I like Haas 3-0

[diegoelmestre]

Over 38 Games (Tursunov/Hanescu) @ 1.877 Pinnacle ---- PUSHED
Novak Djokovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.571 Pinnacle

Record: 7-4-1 +0.471

[diegoelmestre]

Roger Federer: Under 19 Games @ 1.943 Pinnacle

Julien Benneteau is traditionally an opponentthat put some difficulties to Roger Federer. However, I believe that today theSwiss will win in just three sets. Roger Federer is playing very well, he is veryaggressive at his games to put opponents at an early stage of the point in difficulties.I think this point will be very important for the outcome of this match. TheFrench have suffered much in court, was even seen by ATP doctor in both gamesthat have made ​​this tournament. In the fourth set against Kamke, Banneteaualmost not moving. With conditions very slow, Benneteau will always be forcedto return one more ball. With the intensity that Federer has put in his matches,think that Benneteau can not keep the pace of Swiss will put in the match, evento more than one surface that is not the best suited to the characteristics ofJulien Benneteau.
As the 3-0 pays little, it seems to me to amount to odds for Federer towin less than 19 games. This line protects if one of the sets is solved by 7-5or 7-6.

Gilles Simon -1.5 Sets @ 1.92 SboBet

Although Sam Querrey have won his matches in just three sets, did notsurprise me much. Were against Challenger level athletes. It is also true thatSimon has not played at a high level, but I believe that is able to win today.The French will dominate the rallies, and the slow conditions that havepresented throughout this week, Querrey will have more difficulties to winpoints with his powerful forehand. Simon will dominate much of the match and hopehe can can solve the match on a maximum of 4 sets.

[diegoelmestre]

Tommy Haas 3-0 @ 1.862 Pinnacle
Richard Gasquet Under 18.5 Game @ 1.813 Pinnacle
Roger Federer: Under 19 Games @ 1.943 Pinnacle -> PUSHED
Gilles Simon -1.5 Sets @ 1.92 SboBet

Record: 9-5-2 +1,147u

[diegoelmestre]

Over 35 Games (Robredo vs Almagro) @ 1,833 Pinnacle

Nicolas Almagro has imposed a impressive domain on Tommy Robredo. Infive matches leads by 10-1 in sets, but already have played this year. It was avery tough match, Almagro won 7-6 6-4. Never played in Grand Slams. In a fiveset match, and facing a wall as Tommy Robredo, do not believe Almagro canmaintain competitive rates very high for three straight sets. Robredo isplaying very well, and despite having spent much time in court, I believe thatis able to steal at least one set to his compatriot. If so, I believe the Over35 games can be fulfilled, for just one type of the result 7-5 2-6 6-3 6-3 tobe fulfilled.

[diegoelmestre]

Tsonga 3-0 @ 1.862 Pinnacle

Tsonga is playing good tennis,especially his service. Has been outstanding in this chapter, and if presents himselfwell today, I do not see much room for Troicki often break the French service.Troicki despite having some interesting victories in this tournament, I believehis story will end here. Tsonga is very solid, as Troicki is a player whotravels a lot during his matches. If Tsonga repeat the solidity that has shownwith his service, Troicki can begin to despair and start to break mentally moreeasily. The weak consistency of mental Troicki could also worsen by having almost15,000 people to pull the French. I believe Troicki eventually break mentallyquite easily.Tsonga has shown he can dominate Viktor Troicki on clay (Two easy winsin straight sets). Given the data presented, I believe that Tsonga is able tobeat the Serbian in just three sets.

[diegoelmestre]

Tsonga 3-0 @ 1.862 Pinnacle
Over 35 Games (Robredo vs Almagro) @ 1.833 Pinnacle

Record: 11-5-2 +2,842u

[diegoelmestre]

Rafael Nadal: Under 18.5 @ 2.10 Pinnacle

As time goes by, the weather willalso improve. The sun begins to appear at spaces, allowing Rafael Nadal to makethe most of his game. For today, I think Nadal will win in just three sets. KeiNishikori has been dominated in games against Rafael Nadal, and have never playedin clay. The Japanese will have many difficulties in dealing with the highbounce of Nadal balls, not allowing him to hit the ball to a more comfortableheight. Do not forget that Kei Nishikori is one of the lowest players in top 100.The Japanese will have difficulty hitting the ball and his strokes will be veryshort or very slow, allowing Nadal to attack Nishikori.As the 3-0 pay only 1.48, Rafael Nadal not to exceed 18.5 games seemslike a good bet. With an odd of 2.10, seem to have a huge value.

[ohumad]

Tsonga 3-0 @ 1.862 Pinnacle
Over 35 Games (Robredo vs Almagro) @ 1.833 Pinnacle

Record: 11-5-2 +2,842u

Nice hits today Diego. Can't wait to see how Kei fares against Nadal. BOL

[baconbets]

i dont have a nadal games won line, but under 29.5 total games seems like a good line. we are getting a little too late in the tournament for nadal to keep having slow starts, and he is a bad matchup for nishikori who doesnt have the right style to threaten him.

[diegoelmestre]

i dont have a nadal games won line, but under 29.5 total games seems like a good line. we are getting a little too late in the tournament for nadal to keep having slow starts, and he is a bad matchup for nishikori who doesnt have the right style to threaten him.

agree... second week, time to play the best tennis, now all extra minutes in court will count in a eventual semi against Novak.

and is Nadal's birthday, he must want a quick match to go eat cake earlier

[diegoelmestre]

Rafael Nadal: Under 18.5 @ 2.10 Pinnacle

Record: 12-5-2 +3,942u

[diegoelmestre]

Albert Ramos 2-0 @ 1.50 Bet365 (Prostejov)

I believe Albert Ramos will win this match with some ease. Are two players of "leagues" completely different. The greater ability and consistency of Albert Ramos should be enough to beat the Slovak.

Under 18.5 Games (Montanes/Cervenak) @ 2.00 Bet365 (Prostejov)
I believe Albert Montanes will win this match very easily. Beck is an athlete with some difficulties in movement but above all, he doesn’t played for three months. If Albert Montanes put his usual cadence and return all the balls, Beck will certainly feel the lack of fitness and some play rhythm. Karol Beck in the last five years only played 11 games in clay, having won only one. The Spanish is more than able to win with some reassurance. I expect a result like 6-2 6-2.

Under 19.5 Games (Nieminen/ Gojowczyk) @ 1.90 Bet356 (Prostejov)

Jarkko Nieminen is in a good phase, is playing a very nice tennis. In This match will put his usual intensity and hit the ball very early. This will cause difficulties Gojowczyk that given his lower ability to hold long rallies will have many difficulties. It will be a game dominated by Nieminen at the baseline. I believe that the line of 19.5 is not exceeded. I believe in the kind of result 6-2 6-3.

[Bet10Heinekens]

keep up the solid work Diego

[diegoelmestre]

Albert Ramos 2-0 @ 1.50 Bet365 (Prostejov)

I believe Albert Ramos will win this match with some ease. Are two players of "leagues" completely different. The greater ability and consistency of Albert Ramos should be enough to beat the Slovak.

Under 18.5 Games (Montanes/Cervenak) @ 2.00 Bet365 (Prostejov)
I believe Albert Montanes will win this match very easily. Beck is an athlete with some difficulties in movement but above all, he doesn’t played for three months. If Albert Montanes put his usual cadence and return all the balls, Beck will certainly feel the lack of fitness and some play rhythm. Karol Beck in the last five years only played 11 games in clay, having won only one. The Spanish is more than able to win with some reassurance. I expect a result like 6-2 6-2.

Under 19.5 Games (Nieminen/ Gojowczyk) @ 1.90 Bet356 (Prostejov)

Jarkko Nieminen is in a good phase, is playing a very nice tennis. In This match will put his usual intensity and hit the ball very early. This will cause difficulties Gojowczyk that given his lower ability to hold long rallies will have many difficulties. It will be a game dominated by Nieminen at the baseline. I believe that the line of 19.5 is not exceeded. I believe in the kind of result 6-2 6-3.

Record: 13-7-2 +2,442u

[diegoelmestre]

​Over 20.5 Games (Mertl vs Stepanek) @ 2.00 Bet365

The line for the number of games stands at 20.5, which seems to be aline something low. Are two players who serve very well and good at the net. Thedefensive skills is not their best. The return is not the best aspect of theirgames too. So I expect a match with much serve-and-volley and quick and fastrallies. So consider that line of 20.5 games is relatively low. Will be a matchwith few service breaks, in my opinion. Admittedly with a 6-4 6-4 the bet islost, but with a 2.00 seems odd to me to have value, because the probability of a tie-break is not so small as that.

[diegoelmestre]

​Marinko Matosevic @ 1.57 Bet365

I can not understand well the odds of Matosevic. I think that is a realstretch. The only explanation I can find for this is Samuel Groth already havesome tread on these courts, because otherwise, and except for the service,Matosevic gives 100-0 on Groth. If Marinko Matosevic returns the first serviceof Samuel Groth, he automatically gets into trouble, force his backhand will bea mine of points. I've been going to the handicap sets to Matosevic (-1.5 sets), however, as it is thefirst match of Matosevic in grass, he can accuse it during the first set. So, Iwill be more restrained and only bet in Marinko’s win, which I repeat, is witha fantastic odd.

[diegoelmestre]

Over 20.5 Games (Mertl vs Stepanek) @ 2.00 Bet365 ​
Marinko Matosevic @ 1.57 Bet365

Record: 15-7-2 +4,012u

[diegoelmestre]

i'll make a break for a few days because college works

[diegoelmestre]

Guido Pella @ 2.84 Pinnacle

An odd completely exaggerated to Guido Pella, in my opinion. Pella is a clay-courter, but its very his aggressive strokes allow him play well on faster surfaces. Daniel Evans is a Futures tennis player and yet a completely inferior level comparing to the Argentine. The played matches of both in grass is probably what creates this discrepancy in odds. Given that I believe that betting on victory Guido Pella has immense value. He can even lose, but the value is all in Argentine.

Ivan Dodig 2-0 @ 1.80 Bet356

I believe Ivan Dodig will win in just two sets. The Croatian is making a very interesting season, even in clay got some interesting results. The playing conditions are very quick and Dodig likes it. Admittedly, James Ward also likes these conditions, however, the British is technically more limited. It is more dependent on his service than Dodig. In battles from baseline, Ivan Dodig will take advantage. Ivan Dodig is a more competent tennis player and more accustomed to these competitions. So I think going to win in just two sets.

Igor Sijsling 2-0 @ 1.869 Pinnacle

I expect a good win for Sijsling. Living the greatest moment of his career, will certainly be motivated to return to these fasters surfaces that allow him get the most out of his playing style. Igor Sijsling will not give any pace to Ito at the bottom of the court will always try to attack with quick points with his forehand or on the net. In the returning game I expect a huge pressure from Sijsling. The service of Tatsuma Ito is nothing special, and the Dutch can take advantage of this to attack him, especially the second service. That said, I believe a victory in just two sets to Igor Sijsling.

Marinko Matosevic 2-0 @ 2.08 SboBet

Think that Marinko Matosevic will win in just two sets, and with a odd rounding the pair, I seem to have some value. The fact that Nielsen have stolen one set to Feliciano Lopez does not scare me, because of the Spanish game is more based on own service's games. Matosevic is more competent in the bottom line, and will create imbalances in Nielsen more easily than Feliciano Lopez. From the moment that Frederik Nielsen can not put his first service will be in trouble. Marinko Matosevic is much more competent in rallies. He knows very well attack and his defensive game has evolved a lot. The Danish against better player as Matosevic will have many difficulties in imposing his style of play more suited for doubles. That said I do believe a victory in just two sets to Matosevic.

[diegoelmestre]

I'm expecting back to post my picks next season. Had interesting results this season, hope we can make some money together

[Hardcoar]

Thanks brah... in the meantime, be good!

[diegoelmestre]

almost there... very excited about next season

[rankslash]

almost there... very excited about next season

These four weeks between the seasons feel like four months? Can't wait for next season.