[GoBlue77]

Can Stan the man at least keep it close. Was leaning towards +4.5 games. Or will this be a typical fix job and he gets bageled one set or will conveniently lose 6-3 6-4 in straights

If Wawrinka isn't a dumbass, he should be competitive tomorrow...



And as far as the women, Sharapova has won every match 2-0. Might take -160 for +1.5 sets, possibly ml

[ohumad]

I don't like betting handicaps and won't be on it but this one seems decent. I think Wawa can keep it close. Last year at Monte-Carlo:

Rafael Nadal

Stanislas Wawrinka

7-5 6-4

and Wawa is better now (although that wasn't a final). The risk you take is well Nadal...

[baconbets]

i like the following hedge:

nadal 2-1, +325
under 20.5 games, -105
approximate combination, -300

why it works: wawrinka will not win a 3 set match. he will need to win quickly, in 2 sets. however, nadal can also win in 2 sets. under 20.5 covers a decent amount of possible 2 set outcomes, favoring nadal who is more likely to win with fewer games played. all 6 game set outcomes are covered (6-4 6-4, max 20 games). there is some room for outcomes like 7-5 6-2 as well.

why it doesnt work: wawrinka wins in 2 tight sets, going over 20.5 games but not to 3 sets. perhaps 7-6, 6-4. the very remote chance of wawrinka winning in 3 sets is also a problem.

i use bovada which generally has terrible lines with a lot of juice, so there may be better lines and props available elsewhere. generally though i would say this hedge is better than a wawrinka +1.5 sets bet, as i think he is more likely to win 3-4 games per set than to actually win the set.

general comments on the match: wawrinka has made money this tournament going backhand to backhand. that will not work against nadal's left forehand. wawrinka also played 3 sets at midnight on friday, 3 sets saturday, and now plays nadal sunday. that is a lot of volume. nadal, meanwhile, whipped andujar in a practice session. wawrinka could get blown off the court fairly easily here, despite his overall excellent clay season so far and nadal's vulnerabilities [mostly his serving woes]. if anything, the best bet in his match will be for wawrinka to somehow go up a break or to win the first set. then, you pound nadal money line.


edit: looking at the lines again. nadal under 12.5 games could be better than under 20.5 games total. under 12.5 games covers any 2-0 wawrinka win including 2 close sets, and also covers any 6 game set win by nadal, such as 6-4 6-4 or better. when mixed with nadal 2-1, only vulnerability would be nadal 2-0 with 7 games won in one or both sets or the still very unlikely wawrinka 2-1 win. even with a 2-1 wawrinka win, there is a remote possibility of nadal's under hitting, such as 6-3 4-6 6-3 (nadal wins 12 games), whereas it is impossible for a 3 set match to hit under 20.5 games (except in WTA).

[pazim]

Wawrinka has played lot of tennis lately and last three of his matches have all gone to 3 sets. Nadal can make him exhausted by the 2nd set.

[baconbets]

the same style of parlay described in my above post that worked with nadal/wawrinka also worked with berdych/nadal and should work with federer/nadal:

Wawrinka, S vs Nadal, R - Total Games Won - Nadal, R
Over Games vs. Under Games
Under 12½ (-105) May 12/13@10:00a
bet US$ 50.00
to win US$ 47.62
WIN

Wawrinka, S vs Nadal, R - Set Betting
Nadal, R 2-1 +325 May 12/13@10:00a
bet US$ 23.00
to win US$ 74.75
LOSS

NET HEDGE approximately -300
NET WIN $24.62

------

Wawrinka, S vs Nadal, R - Total Games Played
Over Games vs. Under Games
Under 20½ (-105) May 12/13@10:00a
bet US$ 50.00
to win US$ 47.62
WIN


Wawrinka, S vs Nadal, R - Set Betting
Nadal, R 2-1 +325 May 12/13@10:00a
bet US$ 23.00
to win US$ 74.75
LOSS

NET HEDGE approximately -300
NET WIN $24.62

------


Berdych, T vs Nadal, R - Total Games Played
Over Games vs. Under Games
Under 21 (-110) May 18/13@10:00a
bet US$ 22.00
to win US$ 20.00
WIN


Berdych, T vs Nadal, R - Set Betting
Nadal, R 2-1 +335 May 18/13@10:00a
bet US$ 10.00
to win US$ 33.50
LOSS

NET HEDGE approximately -300

------


Nadal, R vs Federer, R - Total Games Played
Over Games vs. Under Games
Under 21½ (-110) May 19/13@10:00a
bet US$ 43.25
to win US$ 39.32


Nadal, R vs Federer, R - Set Betting
Nadal, R 2-1 +300 May 19/13@10:00a
US$ 20.75
US$ 62.25


NET HEDGE approximately -345



this is a hedge for those who want a little more return than taking nadal money line but aren't willing to take his game prop or his 2-0 set prop which pay more. this net hedge price is about halfway between his 2-0 price and his money line price.

under 21.5 games covers most potential nadal or federer straight sets wins. nadal 2-1 is the most likely 3 set outcome. for those thinking this hedge is too conservative, keep in mind that nadal has gone to 3 sets with dimitrov, tsonga, and ferrer (x2) in recent tournaments. if federer gets off to a fast start, he could potentially nab the first set. if you are looking for more return, i recommend the nadal -4 game spread @-130 over the 2-0 bet @ -175 for that reason. nadal could easily win 4-6 6-2 6-2 or something like that, which would allow a -4 game spread to win. the game spread pays better than the 2-0 prop anyway.