1. 05-08-13 03:51 PM #36
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Ivanovic-Robson match is not over yet but unless one of them withdraws, over 20.5 is a winner already.

    That makes 19-13
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 05-09-13 05:26 AM #37
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Gimeno Traver - Andujar , Gimeno-Traver @ 2.37 Void - Gimeno Traver retired
    Tomas Berdych - Kevin Anderson, over 22.5 @ 1.83 Won

    I expect Kevin Anderson to beat Berdych today

    20-13
    Last edited by FoxMulder; 05-09-13 at 09:38 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 05-09-13 08:34 AM #38
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Tommy Haas v David Ferrer , Haas @ 2.75 Lost

    Ferrer is in such terrible form, Haas quite the contrary. Despite the fact that Ferrer is playing at home, I like Haas taking this one.

    20-14
    Last edited by FoxMulder; 05-09-13 at 01:58 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 05-09-13 01:58 PM #39
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Between Haas and Federer, lost 200 bucks.. Frak both of them
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 05-10-13 08:19 AM #40
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    you're seem to be doing well, fox...

    BIG=important suggestion...keep track of % and/or UNITS, as well as W-L record...$/units are where it's at, W% just a side-statistic (and very often a deceiving one...see http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...uaranteed.html )

    i like what I see so far...you're not a big chalk-eater and look for value, so ull see your results in the $/units you generate...you can keep a WL tally but wouldn't worry about the win% as long as the $ are increasing
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 05-10-13 09:15 AM #41
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    People also seem never to have heard of ROI on these boards...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 05-10-13 11:18 AM #42
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    People also seem never to have heard of ROI on these boards...
    I'm so happy when people keep track of net $/units...it's a bit much to expect them to "really do it up right" by keeping a tally of risked $/units as well

    but you're right: the key figure...indicating the "efficiency" of the operation is what i call the "yield"...that is, the "net" divided by the "risked" (expressed as a %)...is this what you guyz are always calling ROI (which I assume stands for "return on investment"?

    BTW, i like to carry the record-keeping just one (but very useful) step further...by keeping a running tally of the "targeted" (ie. the "to win" amounts that accompany each and every "risk" amount)...cuz then u can always calculate the overall average odds as "targeted divided by risked...plus one" (for decimal)...a very nice summary figure to have to complete the picture


    ...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 05-11-13 at 09:48 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 05-10-13 11:29 AM #43
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    Yield and ROI are synonyms, and can be expressed in various ways. I was personally referring to the method described in your post, however: Yes!

    You're right though: Simply listing number of wins and losses is utterly pointless. Unless it's a (x>1)/0 type of figure of course.

    I guess I could phrase that in a better way somehow but doubtlessly you know exactly what I mean.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 05-10-13 07:55 PM #44
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Thanks for your opinions folks.

    It's not easy to keep track of profit (or RoI) when I'm placing 40 bets a day spread over tennis, football and basketball, most of them live. Good idea to keep track of that "here", simply can not afford time. Doesn't mean I don't keep track of it at all.

    Nevertheless, thats' not why I'm posting those tips. What's more meaningful for me is to provide good insight to those who are seeking for value plays. I'm not here for competition, collecting points, etc. I'm not posting all my bets here, just the ones I think may benefit you or give you a fresh perspective. Hence W-L tracking is as a measure of accuracy and reliability as a tipster. How much money I'm making out of those plays is totally my business.
    Last edited by FoxMulder; 05-10-13 at 08:21 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 05-11-13 05:28 AM #45
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    You don't ever track live bets, to be frank.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 05-11-13 10:03 AM #46
    fitguy67
    blessed be the cheesemakers
    fitguy67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-11
    Posts: 5,082
    Betpoints: 3358

    Quote Originally Posted by FoxMulder View Post
    Thanks for your opinions folks.

    It's not easy to keep track of profit (or RoI) when I'm placing 40 bets a day spread over tennis, football and basketball, most of them live. Good idea to keep track of that "here", simply can not afford time. Doesn't mean I don't keep track of it at all.

    Nevertheless, thats' not why I'm posting those tips. What's more meaningful for me is to provide good insight to those who are seeking for value plays. I'm not here for competition, collecting points, etc. I'm not posting all my bets here, just the ones I think may benefit you or give you a fresh perspective. Hence W-L tracking is as a measure of accuracy and reliability as a tipster. How much money I'm making out of those plays is totally my business.

    that's exactly the correct attitude, pal...put the $ first

    I've noticed that the picks u make bear the marks of a value-hunter not the picks of someone suffering from what I call WPF (Win Percentage Fascination)...but because you were only reporting the W-L, i feared that it just might start swaying your picks in the direction of the "safer" (ie. higher win% but generally lower value) to keep the WPF'd "peanut gallery" here happy...

    Good to know that your focus is maximizing $...not impressing the majority of sbr-kiddies suffereing from WPF...

    keep 'em coming
    Last edited by fitguy67; 05-11-13 at 02:16 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 05-11-13 05:40 PM #47
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    S. Williams v M. Sharapova , Sharapova @ 2.75

    Serena's lower back injury problem is back. First Medina, then Errani almost had her. She won't be able to stand put and return versus Sharapova. Sharapova will make Williams run for her money which I'm confident Williams is not physically or mentally fit to respond in fashion. I'm siding with Sharapova here, she was consistent throughout the tournament. You may also want to try Sharapova +3.5 @ 1.80

    Maria Teresa Torro-Flor v Lesia Tsurenko, Torro Flor @ 1.83

    I'm not a fan of Tsurenko, she can't hold onto her service game, too many unforced errors and double faults. When she does, that's always against a considerably weaker opponent. Her first serve always faulty, second serve does not worth a damn. Torro Flor is a better player and far better clay courter. The player with less faults shall win and I expect Torro Flor to make less errors than Tsurenko tomorrow.


    Rest of the matches tomorrow don't offer high enough odds to bet on. You may choose to bet on the favorites and get some return there. Contrary to ATP and WTA Madrid, I don't expect many surprises on the ATP/WTA Rome front tomorrow.

    Good luck
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 05-11-13 05:54 PM #48
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    Are you saying you were expecting upsets in Madrid?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 05-12-13 12:57 AM #49
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Oudin over Hampton & Davis over Johansson looks good. There is a huge last minute odds shift too. Davis should take Madrid's revenge from Johansson. Also like Soler-Espinosa over Muguruza.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 05-12-13 01:41 AM #50
    hougigo
    hougigo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-12
    Posts: 3,665
    Betpoints: 0

    Quote Originally Posted by FoxMulder View Post
    Oudin over Hampton & Davis over Johansson looks good. There is a huge last minute odds shift too. Davis should take Madrid's revenge from Johansson. Also like Soler-Espinosa over Muguruza.
    That's what I was looking at (hampton game)
    Oudin hasn't been playing good lately and Hampton has been doing quite well, but Oudin has 2 games over Hampton's none H2H.
    No play for me... because games like this usually eff me over
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 05-12-13 01:55 AM #51
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Quote Originally Posted by hougigo View Post
    That's what I was looking at (hampton game)
    Oudin hasn't been playing good lately and Hampton has been doing quite well, but Oudin has 2 games over Hampton's none H2H.
    No play for me... because games like this usually eff me over
    H2H is one of the last things I look at @ WTA tennis, unless very, very recent. I look at the previous match stats and try to derive my predictions from there
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 05-12-13 02:25 AM #52
    hougigo
    hougigo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-12
    Posts: 3,665
    Betpoints: 0

    What favorites do you like tomorrow? I have an open parlay and i'm looking to fill spots
    I took Gulbis already (should have no problem) and Gaquet
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 05-12-13 02:29 AM #53
    innn
    innn's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-31-10
    Posts: 492
    Betpoints: 6470

    Quote Originally Posted by FoxMulder View Post
    Oudin over Hampton & Davis over Johansson looks good. There is a huge last minute odds shift too. Davis should take Madrid's revenge from Johansson. Also like Soler-Espinosa over Muguruza.
    How confident you on Davis , Johansson has thrashed her recnetly?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 05-12-13 02:42 AM #54
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Quote Originally Posted by hougigo View Post
    What favorites do you like tomorrow? I have an open parlay and i'm looking to fill spots
    I took Gulbis already (should have no problem) and Gaquet
    Early to say, i may post some plays later today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 05-12-13 02:50 AM #55
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Quote Originally Posted by innn View Post
    How confident you on Davis , Johansson has thrashed her recnetly?
    That may not matter, e.g. Oudin got thrashed by Scheepers last week in Madrid, scalped her yesterday in Rome. This is wta tennis. Only thing that is certain about wta tennis is there is going to be a winner. Both Johansson and Davis are unreliable. Davis seems to have served and returned a bit better yesterday. Johansson have better clay experience though
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 05-12-13 04:45 AM #56
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    2/11 break point conversion for Davis. She should choose another profession.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 05-12-13 05:41 AM #57
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
    Hardcoar's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-13
    Posts: 15,606
    Betpoints: 4615

    Really? I think the WTA suits her aptly!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 05-12-13 01:49 PM #58
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Really? I think the WTA suits her aptly!

    Agreed. My picks were not accurate today, besides Oudin play.

    Will focus on football and basketball for some time. I seem to be doing well thanks to Fenerbahce, Barcelona and Montepaschi Siena.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 05-15-13 01:19 AM #59
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Tough matches today. Possible 3-setters (or safely over 22.5):

    Tsonga - Janowicz
    Paire - Benneteau
    Youzhny - Simon
    Troicki - Gulbis
    Ramos - Kohlschreiber


    Predicted winners are bolded.
    Last edited by FoxMulder; 05-15-13 at 01:24 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 05-15-13 01:53 AM #60
    horja1
    Grrrrrr
    horja1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-13-11
    Posts: 5,646
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by FoxMulder View Post
    Youzhny - Simon
    This is the time to fade Simon in this tourney
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 05-15-13 02:49 AM #61
    Sharp Snake
    Sharp Snake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-11-12
    Posts: 550
    Betpoints: 760

    Quote Originally Posted by horja1 View Post
    This is the time to fade Simon in this tourney
    Why?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 05-15-13 02:57 AM #62
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Simon has the spirit of a fighter. Only spirit Youzhny has is a bottle of vodka.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 05-15-13 03:08 AM #63
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Carreno Busta v Garcia Lopez in Bordeaux challenger. That is another one that may go 3 sets. Siding with Carreno Busta to win
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 05-15-13 04:17 AM #64
    CaptainOmar111
    On My Way To Earn $1,000
    CaptainOmar111's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-13
    Posts: 2,024
    Betpoints: 1

    Quote Originally Posted by horja1 View Post
    This is the time to fade Simon in this tourney
    +10000000000000000000 !!! I saw him yesterday and he was too bad to imagine !!!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 05-15-13 07:35 AM #65
    horja1
    Grrrrrr
    horja1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-13-11
    Posts: 5,646
    Betpoints: 12

    Quote Originally Posted by Sharp Snake View Post
    Why?
    made some nice money fading him lately ... and because he plays WTA tennis

    too bad Youzhny couldn't win 1 of those 6 set points in the first set
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 05-15-13 01:10 PM #66
    Sharp Snake
    Sharp Snake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-11-12
    Posts: 550
    Betpoints: 760

    Spot on.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 05-22-13 01:08 AM #67
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Along with Haase and Fognini, will try Reister (vs Volandri) and Kovalik (vs Darcis) @ RG qualies today.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 05-22-13 02:10 AM #68
    davopnz
    davopnz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-12-12
    Posts: 1,734
    Betpoints: 150

    wait please dont tell me you're betting on robin haase
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 05-22-13 04:44 AM #69
    FoxMulder
    FoxMulder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-02-13
    Posts: 1,139
    Betpoints: 3121

    Quote Originally Posted by davopnz View Post
    wait please dont tell me you're betting on robin haase
    Against Isner, I'd bet on my grandmother to win, despite her current medical condition. god rest her soul.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 05-22-13 09:03 AM #70
    Dmoneytx
    Dmoneytx's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-12
    Posts: 6,450
    Betpoints: 566

    What's up Fox?? I hope you are doing well sir I agree with you on the American tennis. It is crap awful. The women are always such a crap shoot, and our men at the moment are not achieving like they should be. It is sad. And yes, Harrison is a joke, which is why I started my year long fade Harrison thread. Well, I always wish you the BOL in all your wagers man. Keep up the good work...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
First 123 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Tennis Betting | Next Thread »