[adam3248]

I haven't posted on SBR consistently for a long time but I want to start sharing & documenting my picks again. I'm focussing solely on Tennis as it's the sport i've had most success with. I often bet parlays including short price favourites, but as with all my bets, will be selective and looking to achieve a strike rate (%) that will result in profit long-term

[adam3248]

ATP Miami (26/03)

Bet #1
David Ferrer to win vs Kei Nishikori -400
Richard Gasquet to win vs Nicolas Almagro -150
Parlay +109 Odds. Risking 1Unit to win 1.09 Units.

Bet #2
Jurgen Melzer to win vs Albert Ramos +100
Risking 1Unit to win 1Unit.

Bet #3
Gilles Simon to win vs Janko Tipsarevic -137
Risking 1.37 Units to win 1Unit.

Would be great to kick off the thread with 3 winners, but cashing 2 out of 3 here would be enough to show a profit. Best of luck all!

[CaptainOmar111]

Nice to see more players add their threads because that help all of us to make more profit !!! Good Luck Adam

[adam3248]

Thanks Omar. I agree completely, we can all benefit from sharing our knowledge and opinions

[Dmoneytx]

What's up Adam??? Good to see you back man I wish you the BOL, as always. Hit me up sometime, you know where to find me! VAMOS!!!

[Dmoneytx]

Also, Tips has been in much better form lately. Don't forget, he was a top 10 player. I know he was crap there for awhile, but it would not surprise me at all to see this one go 3 sets or for Tips to knock out the lazy azz frenchman. Either way, BOL, I am not playing this match.

[adam3248]

Hey D. Yeah i'm good thanks, you? It's good to be back, it's been a while! I'll keep checking in on your thread to see how you're doing. Yeah Tipsy has been playing well, i've backed him a couple of times recently. Should be a good game for sure. Good to hear from you D. Best of luck!

[Ambition]

Best of luck, Adam. I'm looking to create a thread for myself for my tennis plays. I started one earlier but, didn't stay with it on here as I just forget to post or just a lil busy. Unfortunately, I'm on Ramos against Melzer but, we're both on Ferrer so best of luck! Check for my thread later on, I'm going to start it right now actually! BOL!

[adam3248]

Thanks Ambition. I'll keep an eye out for your thread once it's created to see how your doing. Good luck!

[adam3248]

Perfect way to start the thread with all 3 bets cashing today!

Record 3-0 +3.09 Units.

[CaptainOmar111]

Perfect way to start the thread with all 3 bets cashing today!

Record 3-0 +3.09 Units.

Congrats Man , Good Start and Good Luck

[Hardcoar]

Yeah welcome (back?). Thanks for sharing your picks and thoughts!

[adam3248]

ATP Miami (27/03 & 28/03)

Bet #1
Tommy Haas to win vs Gilles Simon -187.5
Tomas Berdych to win vs Richard Gasquet -250
Parlay +114 odds. Risking 1Unit to win 1.14 Units

[adam3248]

The performance from Tommy Haas last night was outstanding. Defeating the world #1 Djokovic in straight sets will have provided such a huge confidence boost for Haas, proving that when he's on his game (despite approaching the final stages of his career), he still has the ability to 'trade punches' with the best in the world. Some may view this as a potential 'let-down' spot for Haas against Simon (which is a possibility of course) but Haas is one of the most experienced players on tour and shouldn't be complacent heading into this match. I think Haas will put in another solid performance which will be enough to see him book his place in the Semi-Finals.

Berdych, surprisingly struggled past Falla during the earlier stages of this tournament. It's common, even for the top players on tour, to experience a 'hiccup' or two during a tournament. Fortunately for Berdych, he wasn't punished by Falla and managed to grind out the win. He won convincingly against Querrey, and will be the 'fresher' player heading into this Quarter-Final matchup after Gasquet battled through a close encounter with Almagro. Berdych, undoubtedly has bundles of ability, the better record on this surface overall and has added belief/motivation with Djokovic now out of contention. Gasquet will battle hard and keep this one close but I believe Berdych will advance, setting up an interesting potential Semi-Final clash with Murray.

[lucasdawg]

good verification, thinking of these 2 also. pretty gay how they are so far apart now. expecting simon also to be a tad tired after the 3 setter. where as haas gains momentum in his play from the 2 set win

[Bet10Heinekens]

Great day yesterday Adam

Good read on the write up, nice to see other posters thoughts on matches

[adam3248]

Glad you agree Lucas. I've heard several people discussing a potential 'let-down' from Haas following an emotional win but personally I don't see it happening here. Hopefully i'm not proven wrong Best of luck today!

[adam3248]

Thanks Heinekens, appreciate it.

[lucasdawg]

think haas can take it 2-0 sets? or 2-1?

[Hardcoar]

I know I do.

[adam3248]

I lean towards Haas in straight sets personally..

[adam3248]

Typical! I was waiting around to watch the Haas game last night and fell asleep 5 minutes before it started! Hopefully I can catch some highlights later. Nice to see that Haas got the job done anyway, and in straight sets. On to Berdych now..

[MasterBet]

Nice job pal!

Hope for all of us thet Berdych play well today against Gasq

[adam3248]

Really dissapointed with Berdy's performance tonight! Credit to Gasquet but way too many errors from Berdych.

3-1 (75%) +2.09 Units

[lucasdawg]

TOOOO many, basically made unforced errors in 90% of the ralleys. had no play today gasquet breezed thru that with backhands and a few hot shots.

[adam3248]

Yes Lucas. If Gasquet played out of his skin and won the match it would be easier to accept but he just didn't need to. Did the basics well but nothing spectacular. Berdych was playing one dimensional, too many simple errors and kept trying to beat Gasquet in straight lines rather than using the angles more. Oh well, on to the next one..

[adam3248]

ATP Miami 29/03

Bet #1
Tommy Haas to win a set vs David Ferrer -162.50
Andy Murray to win vs Richard Gasquet -400
Parlay +103 odds. Risking 1 Unit to win 1.03 Units.

[adam3248]

Tommy Haas has been in great form this week, beating Djokovic and Simon in straight sets. His serve has been especially impressive, dropping just 10 points vs Djokovic and 11 points vs Simon from service games. Melzer and Nishikori both made Ferrer battle to hold several of his service games during his last two matches and I believe Haas will create more pressure and break point opportunities on Ferrer's serve than the other way around. Haas really has a chance to win this match if he continues to serve well and play with the same freedom and confidence that he has done all week. I expect this match to be close and could quite easily take 3 sets to separate them. My concern for Haas is whether (if it goes the distance) he will be able to maintain his energy and intensity levels as Ferrer never seems to show signs of fatigue, chasing down and returning nearly every ball he faces. Haas also played a tough doubles match today whilst Ferrer was able to rest which also raises the same question regarding the impact these factors may have on Tommy's energy levels due to a shorter recovery period heading into this match. However, I expect this to be a thrilling match with Haas continuing his good form (especially on serve) and predict the German will take at least a set from Ferrer in this one.

Gasquet played well against Berdych in the QF's without needing to do anything spectacular. His winners to unforced errors ratio was impressive (17/10), whilst Berdych committed 30 unforced errors. This straight sets victory for Gasquet looks really impressive on paper but the truth is all he needed to do was execute on the basics and produce the occassional flash of brilliance which was enough to secure the win. Murray played well against Cilic, winning in straight sets, and is my pick to win outright from here. I think Gasquet has the ability to trouble Murray based on his recent form but Murray tends to switch gears at the business end of these tournaments which should be enough to break Gasquet's resistance.

[adam3248]

Winning start to today's bet as Haas won the opening set 6-4 vs Ferrer. Down to Murray now.. Hopefully he doesn't 'do a Berdych' on me!

[adam3248]

Glad to get back to winning ways today!

4-1 (80%) +3.12 Units

[CaptainOmar111]

Glad to get back to winning ways today!

4-1 (80%) +3.12 Units

Congrats , I was thinking to pick Haas +1,5 sets and Gasquet +1,5 sets but was worried so I did not played them

[adam3248]

ATP Miami 31/03

Bet #1
Andy Murray to win vs David Ferrer -300
Risking 3 Units to win 1Unit.

[adam3248]

Murray currently holds a narrow 6-5 lead in the head-to-head stats vs Ferrer. However, Ferrer has only won 2 of their past 7 meetings and has only beaten Murray once on a non-clay surface. Murray has played great tennis this week, only dropping a single set en route to the final which was gifted to Gasquet after failing to serve out for the opening set in their Semi-Final matchup. Murray has generally been dominant on serve this week which is more than can be said for Ferrer, who when interviewed following his Semi-Final victory over Tommy Haas, admitted that his performance on serve will be the key factor when he faces Murray in tomorrow's final. Ferrer has been involved in several battles on serve in his previous matches this week, and I expect one of the best returner's in the game (Murray) to exploit any weakness in Ferrer's serve creating multiple break point opportunities. There is also added motivation for Murray, as a win here would promote him to #2 in the rankings which will have significance when considering the seeding for the French Open. Murray holds the advantage on this surface and although Ferrer will make life difficult and battle for every point, I expect Murray to come away with the title.

[CaptainOmar111]

Murray currently holds a narrow 6-5 lead in the head-to-head stats vs Ferrer. However, Ferrer has only won 2 of their past 7 meetings and has only beaten Murray once on a non-clay surface. Murray has played great tennis this week, only dropping a single set en route to the final which was gifted to Gasquet after failing to serve out for the opening set in their Semi-Final matchup. Murray has generally been dominant on serve this week which is more than can be said for Ferrer, who when interviewed following his Semi-Final victory over Tommy Haas, admitted that his performance on serve will be the key factor when he faces Murray in tomorrow's final. Ferrer has been involved in several battles on serve in his previous matches this week, and I expect one of the best returner's in the game (Murray) to exploit any weakness in Ferrer's serve creating multiple break point opportunities. There is also added motivation for Murray, as a win here would promote him to #2 in the rankings which will have significance when considering the seeding for the French Open. Murray holds the advantage on this surface and although Ferrer will make life difficult and battle for every point, I expect Murray to come away with the title.

Ferrer better on Clay , but Hard for Murray surely

[adam3248]

What a lucky escape that was! Great match to watch, highly entertaining but also highly frustrating! Murray certainly likes to win the hard way at times! Failing to maintain his lead of a break on 3 occasions in the deciding set as well as failing to serve out for the match at 5-4. Way too many errors from Murray early on in the match and he deserved to lose the opener, fortunately Ferrer returned the favour making several errors of his own in the 2nd set to level it up. Huge credit to Ferrer, who as always, battled for every ball in every point, never knows when he's beat and was unlucky not to have won when holding match point. It may have ended up being a much closer match than I had anticipated but the most important thing is that Murray came through it in the end and picked up the win