1. 03-21-13 05:52 PM #36
    Michael_Flieger
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    V. Williams -5' -110 (Krumm): 2.20/2.00

    -21.03 + -2.20 = -23.23 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-21-13 at 08:22 PM.
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  2. 03-21-13 06:34 PM #37
    Michael_Flieger
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    Colorado St. +2' -101 (Missouri): 2.02/2.00 win
    Harvard +10' -107 (New Mexico): 2.14/2.00 win

    -23.23 + 4.00 = -19.23 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 05:33 AM.
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  3. 03-22-13 05:00 AM #38
    Michael_Flieger
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    Kerber -500 (Schiavone): 15.00/3.00

    -19.23 + 3.00 = -16.23 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 02:26 PM.
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  4. 03-22-13 05:06 AM #39
    Michael_Flieger
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    3-parlay

    Tipsarevic -245 (Sela) win
    Kerber -500 (Schiavone) win
    Azarenka -1000 (Keys) canc.

    4.26/3.66 (2.94)

    -16.23 + 2.94 = -13.17 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 02:27 PM.
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  5. 03-22-13 05:35 AM #40
    Michael_Flieger
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    2-parlay

    Simon -175 (Hewitt)
    F. Mayer -280 (Zemlja) loss

    2.13/2.41 loss

    -13.17 + -2.13 = -15.30 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 02:27 PM.
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  6. 03-22-13 05:37 AM #41
    Michael_Flieger
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    2-parlay

    Llodra -135 (Fognini) loss
    Benneteau -150 (Blake) loss

    2.13/4.05

    -15.30 + -2.13 = -17.43 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 02:50 PM.
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  7. 03-22-13 05:42 AM #42
    Michael_Flieger
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    Devvarman +145 (F. Lopez): 2.13/3.09 canc.
    Dolgopolov +130 (Davydenko): 2.13/2.77 win
    Monaco +115 (Ramos): 2.13/2.45 loss
    Granollers +120 (Melzer): 2.13/2.56 loss
    U. Radwanska +155 (Ivanovic): 2.13/3.30 loss
    Garrigues +4 -120 (Zakopalova): 2.40/2.00 push
    McHale +175 (Vinci): 2.13/3.73 loss
    Navarro +165 (Hampton): 2.13/3.51 win
    Cornet +130 (Robson): 2.13/2.77 win

    -17.43 + .53 = -16.90 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 09:58 PM.
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  8. 03-22-13 05:43 AM #43
    Michael_Flieger
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    5-parlay

    Dolgopolov +130 (Davydenko) win
    Monaco +115 (Ramos) loss
    Granollers +120 (Melzer) loss
    Hantuchova +215 (Errani)
    Navarro +165 (Hampton) win

    .50/44.91 loss

    -16.90 + -.50 = -17.40 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 09:59 PM.
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  9. 03-22-13 02:43 PM #44
    Michael_Flieger
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    Zeballos +428 (Anderson): 1.00/4.28 loss
    Zeballos +4 -105 (Anderson): 1.05/1.00 push
    [ Dmitrov/Nielsen -210 (R. Harrison/C. Harrison): 2.10/1.00 ]
    Hantuchova +240 (Errani): 1.00/2.40 loss
    Bouchard +2175 (Sharapova): .50/10.88 loss
    Bouchard +7' +105: .50/.53 loss
    [ Mladenovic/Voskoboeva +125 (Huber/Sanchez): 1.00/1.25 ]
    Reynolds -180 (Sugita): 1.80/1.00 win
    De Voest -160 (Bogdanovic): 1.60/1.00 win

    -17.40 + -1.00 = -18.40 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 12:24 AM.
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  10. 03-22-13 02:46 PM #45
    Michael_Flieger
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    Duval +553 (Jankovic): 1.00/5.53 loss
    Duval +6 -105 (Jankovic): 1.05/1.00 win

    -18.40 + 0 = -18.40 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 12:24 AM.
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  11. 03-22-13 03:10 PM #46
    Michael_Flieger
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    Hewitt +160 (Simon): 4.26/6.82 loss

    -18.40 + -4.26 = -22.66 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 12:25 AM.
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  12. 03-22-13 04:35 PM #47
    Michael_Flieger
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    [saturday matches]

    Petkovic -280 (Tomljanovic): 14.00/5.00

    2-parlay

    Cibulkova -285 (Oprandi)
    Kvitova -320 (Flipkens)

    4.50/3.48

    think the line will move against me on these three so making these early. the other ones are huge dogs, i like most of them, but going to wait till the games lines come out.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-22-13 at 05:20 PM.
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  13. 03-22-13 08:50 PM #48
    Michael_Flieger
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    UCLA +152 (Minnesota): 2.00/3.04
    UCLA-Minnesota 134 under -105: 2.10/2.00

    -22.66 + -4.10 = -26.76 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 12:26 AM.
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  14. 03-23-13 12:27 AM #49
    Michael_Flieger
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    [carried forward from Friday]

    Petkovic -280 (Tomljanovic): 14.00/5.00 loss

    2-parlay

    Cibulkova -285 (Oprandi) win
    Kvitova -320 (Flipkens) loss

    4.50/3.48 loss

    Dmitrov/Nielsen -210 (R. Harrison/C. Harrison): 2.10/1.00 win
    Mladenovic/Voskoboeva +125 (Huber/Sanchez): 1.00/1.25 loss

    -26.76 + -45.26 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 10:38 PM.
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  15. 03-23-13 09:47 AM #50
    Michael_Flieger
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    Venus Williams -150 (Stephens): 4.50/3.00 canceled.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 04:17 PM.
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  16. 03-23-13 01:46 PM #51
    Michael_Flieger
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    Isner -175 (Dodig): 3.40/2.00 win

    dodig screwed hard by refs at crucial point. isner can't keep ball on court to save his life. it's all unforced errors and aces.

    -45.26 + 2.00 = -43.26 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 07:53 PM.
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  17. 03-23-13 04:16 PM #52
    Michael_Flieger
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    Raonic -4' -125 (Rufin): 2.50/2.00 win

    -43.26 units + 2.00 = -41.26 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-23-13 at 08:14 PM.
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  18. 03-24-13 05:19 AM #53
    Michael_Flieger
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    2-parlay

    Nishikori -410 (Malisse) win
    Dolgopolov +105 (Haas) loss

    5.00/7.75 loss

    -41.26 + -5.00 = -46.26 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-24-13 at 01:44 PM.
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  19. 03-24-13 07:46 AM #54
    MasterBet
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    Why backing Dolgo. over Haas?(i love to know if thet something special?

    BOL!
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  20. 03-24-13 08:09 AM #55
    Hardcoar
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    Not at those odds there's not lol, IMO.

    Might be value @ +130, but I'm looking for Haas odds to rise if I'm to make a bet.
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  21. 03-24-13 08:16 AM #56
    Sam_Hawkins
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    imho dolgo is a good pick for today. seemed on fire against davy, might as well be davydenko failing miserably...but we will see today
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  22. 03-24-13 08:28 AM #57
    Hardcoar
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    Oh absolutely, though I'm personally convinced value @ +105 is non existant or negative.
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  23. 03-24-13 08:49 AM #58
    Sam_Hawkins
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    I parlayed him with anderson and will see just what happens
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  24. 03-24-13 08:51 AM #59
    Hardcoar
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    I might give him a go if odds reach +130. Currently at +120. Haas isn't precisely stability personified either...
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  25. 03-24-13 11:04 AM #60
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by MasterBet View Post
    Why backing Dolgo. over Haas?(i love to know if thet something special?

    BOL!
    Nothing special. Dolg is a guy I have followed pretty closely and been right on more than wrong over three years. As I posted a while back, he was tired in Memphis. Then he recovered his rest. Then he lost in three setter in opening round. So he should be well primed for this tournament. Last match destroyed Davydenko, who has been playing well. I don't know for a fact he will win here, but I guarantee this will be at the least a very close match. I think he will win. Haas has done well lately, but I think Dolg is fresher and beats him here. At odds on it's worth a shot.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-24-13 at 12:01 PM.
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  26. 03-24-13 11:08 AM #61
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Oh absolutely, though I'm personally convinced value @ +105 is non existant or negative.
    Value = opinion. There's no objective measure of it. It sounds cooler and more scientific, but it's simply circular unless you have some independent criterion to measure it. I estimate Dolg has a 60% chance of winning this match. But that's simply my opinion put in pseudo-scientific form.
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  27. 03-24-13 11:10 AM #62
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam_Hawkins View Post
    I parlayed him with anderson and will see just what happens
    See, I think that match will be a real struggle. I don't know if Tips will win, but he will play well today, I predict.
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  28. 03-24-13 11:20 AM #63
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael_Flieger View Post
    Value = opinion. There's no objective measure of it. It sounds cooler and more scientific, but it's simply circular unless you have some independent criterion to measure it. I estimate Dolg has a 60% chance of winning this match. But that's simply my opinion put in pseudo-scientific form.
    I agree, and nothing I said contradicts this.

    The only obtainable, objective measurement of value, is long term results, and even then it only tells you the average value of all your bets. Knowing the factual value of a specific bet at any time is literally impossible.

    That said, I'm still personally convinced Dolgo @ +105 is an average bet at best.

    I've decided to go with +130 though, when it gets to that, if ever. Getting close...
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  29. 03-24-13 11:35 AM #64
    Michael_Flieger
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    The only obtainable, objective measurement of value, is long term results, and even then it only tells you the average value of all your bets. Knowing the factual value of a specific bet at any time is literally impossible.

    That said, I'm still personally convinced Dolgo @ +105 is an average bet at best.

    I've decided to go with +130 though, when it gets to that, if ever. Getting close...
    It's a bad bet if your guide is recent performance by both players. This bet must be based on something that can't be seen by a computer, and that is that Dolg is fresher psychologically and physically and primed for a great performance.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-24-13 at 11:54 AM.
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  30. 03-24-13 11:40 AM #65
    Hardcoar
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    No I'm only saying I think it's a bad bet. When I say that what I mean is exclusively this: I personally am of the opinion that it is devoid of any value. Possibly, in fact, it is a bet of negative value.

    I'm saying what I think, not that I'm right. What I think could easily be wrong, and I'm well aware of it. I hope you understand that.

    Hoping for a Dol'Po win regardless, and even more so for your bet's sake. Hopefully the revolution will be televised! : )
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  31. 03-24-13 11:54 AM #66
    Hardcoar
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    Decided to tail you. I feel you make a good point as well.

    Let's do this!
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  32. 03-24-13 11:57 AM #67
    Michael_Flieger
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    No I'm only saying I think it's a bad bet. When I say that what I mean is exclusively this: I personally am of the opinion that it is devoid of any value. Possibly, in fact, it is a bet of negative value.
    Sure. I've been wrong a lot lately, and might well be wrong here.

    I'm saying what I think, not that I'm right. What I think could easily be wrong, and I'm well aware of it. I hope you understand that.

    Hoping for a Dol'Po win regardless, and even more so for your bet's sake. Hopefully the revolution will be televised! : )
    Yes, got lots of feeds through http://www.firstrow1.eu/watch/176823...atp-miami.html .
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  33. 03-24-13 12:36 PM #68
    Michael_Flieger
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    Haas takes it 63. Great value now if you still like Dolg, 5.50.
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  34. 03-24-13 01:20 PM #69
    Michael_Flieger
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    4-parlay

    Simon -550 (Zemlj) win
    Tipsarevic +105 (Anderson) win
    Ramos +155 (Blake)
    Kamke +145 (Melzer) loss

    2.00/28.27

    -46.26 + -2.00 = -48.26 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-24-13 at 07:18 PM.
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  35. 03-24-13 01:23 PM #70
    Michael_Flieger
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    Well, a truly terrible performance by Dolg, and a worse one by me. Haas plays professional tennis. Dolg goes for great shots. Even in a wild wind, he tries to hit lines, and plays the lowest percentage shots he can come up with. Dolg seems to have regressed, why I don't know. He looked like Isner out there; couldn't keep the ball on the court. Going for lines in a big wind? wtf?

    I want to explain myself at this point. I started posting here after winning 19 out of 21 days. Judging by my posting record so far, that statement can only elicit a laugh, but it's true. Anyway, if this terrible performance continues and I get down 100 units, I will stop posting. I won't go on any crazy size garbage to get back what I'm down, 20 units is my max.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-24-13 at 01:28 PM.
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