[Sport_Fish]

Seeing -200 on Nadal - expected this to be closer to -300. I'm missing something here. The fact that Berdych hasn't dropped a set this tourny is misleading. The only (somewhat) quality win he's had was vs Anderson, all others were like a walk in the park. I saw the Gasquet match, and the frenchman was way off his game and didn't even play any solid tennis except for some moments in the 2nd set - but still, was an easy win and didn't test Berdych.

Nadal has had two major challenges - and came through in both. The H2H is heavily in favour of Nadal, and yes that does matter now because he's back to playing very close to his best. And I don't see how he doesn't beat Berdych here again.

I really think -200 on Nadal is a gd price...straight up or parlay with Djokovic.

[CaptainOmar111]

Well , Iam confused till this moment due to what I saw in this tournament !!! but I think that might go in 3 sets !!! and who will win , I think Nadal Very Hardly !!!!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

i agree Nadal at this price against a deep running berdy is good for a parlay play. i wouldnt risk the juice tho on a straight up bet.

[Sam_Hawkins]

Berdych is not mentally consistent enough to beat rafa and nadal is way too motivated.

[Sport_Fish]

Yea I think Nadal is as motivated as ever to win this thing or atleast reach the finals....alot to prove to himself and the world and I just don't see Berdych being able to overcome this.

[Michael_Flieger]

Berdych is not mentally consistent enough to beat rafa and nadal is way too motivated.

looked to me that berdych left openings for anderson he wasn't good enough to take, but nadal will. and yes, even if both play at high level, berdych is weaker mentally than nadal.

[Hardcoar]

My estimate of actual probability expressed in odds (assuming a 100 % payout): @ 1.4

I find value in Nadal at anything over @ 1.45. I also like the straight sets win at relative odds.

[Hardcoar]

i agree Nadal at this price against a deep running berdy is good for a parlay play. i wouldnt risk the juice tho on a straight up bet.

Pruh logixx?

[CaptainOmar111]

My estimate of actual probability expressed in odds (assuming a 100 % payout): @ 1.4

I find value in Nadal at anything over @ 1.45. I also like the straight sets win at relative odds.

I see Nadal can do this easily specially with Berdytch small injury that I saw when he was playing against K.Anderson !!!

[Sam_Hawkins]

I see Nadal can do this easily specially with Berdytch small injury that I saw when he was playing against K.Anderson !!!

okay I will ask again. What injury do you mean? He is imho perfectly healthy. You mean that he has his thigh taped or what?

[Demonata]

Nadal all the way. Tougher test was against federer in my opinion. Should handle Berdych. Taking Nadal first set.

[lucasdawg]

isnt berdych not 100%? i read off another thread somewhere about his leg. with or without injury i think nadal can win even if its close.

[Hardcoar]

okay I will ask again. What injury do you mean? He is imho perfectly healthy. You mean that he has his thigh taped or what?

No there was something about his foot that ailed him, though it was only absolutely clear against Gasquet, not against Anderson whatsoever as far as I know (no confirmation, that is). I could get a bit more specific but that seems unnecessary.

[CaptainOmar111]

No there was something about his foot that ailed him, though it was only absolutely clear against Gasquet, not against Anderson whatsoever as far as I know (no confirmation, that is). I could get a bit more specific but that seems unnecessary.

that is what I mean Exactly !!!

[Sam_Hawkins]

No there was something about his foot that ailed him, though it was only absolutely clear against Gasquet, not against Anderson whatsoever as far as I know (no confirmation, that is). I could get a bit more specific but that seems unnecessary.

ty, I thought every tennis player has feet problems, they have almost more awful feet than ballet dancers lol

[wakefield23]

okay I will ask again. What injury do you mean? He is imho perfectly healthy. You mean that he has his thigh taped or what?

No, he´s not perfectly healthy. He´s still playing with pain in his knee. I can't see nadal doing this.

[CaptainOmar111]

+1,5 sets for Rafa @ 1.22 ... is it safe enough to take risk ???

[Demonata]

I took Nadal to win first set so I can just enjoy rest of the match.

[CaptainOmar111]

No, he´s not perfectly healthy. He´s still playing with pain in his knee. I can't see nadal doing this.

we are talking about Berdytch not Nadal LOL

[EaglesPhan36]

Berdych

"I feel quite well on court, and especially I would say physically, because I already play quite a lot in the past couple of weeks," he said after beating Anderson 6-4 6-4.


"So that's the important sign for me, that I can be fit for the guys in the next rounds. Then I can focus on the game that I want to play and the game what is working."

Taking Nadal-Berdych Ends in 3 Sets @ +145. Someone made a comment about how Rafa had the tougher tests getting here. I do believe he had the tougher opponents. The Gulbis match was tough and rightfully someone who is a better closer would not have let Nadal come back and win in the 3rd like Gulbis did. He dominated Federer, but I think there is still a physical issue with Federer's back. So while the score is impressive - Federer did not play all that well and I don't see it being all that different than Berdych dismantling Gasquet who also did not play particularly well as noted.


Push comes to shove, I think Nadal will likely come through, but Berdych has played him tight the last few times they met. Another one where I think Berd's best chance is to be a frontrunner with a quick start and win in the opening set.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Pruh logixx?

whats wrong with the logixx behind not wanting to risk all that juice on a match that wouldnt shock me if nadal lost?

[Hardcoar]

Nothing at all. That's sound logic. However, risking all that juice on the very same match thrown in a parlay as an alternative is utterly devoid of any logic.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

ok i see your point. but from a bankroll sense i would rather have a 0.5 unit parlay with nadal in it to win a unit, instead of a +2unit bet to win a unit just all on nadal.

[ohumad]

If Nadal loses:

[Michael_Flieger]

brad gilbert tweets nadal 11-3 against berdych, has won 30 of 32 sets against him. the only reason to take berdych i can see is that he's playing about as well as he ever has. that's something, but i think nadal at -200 is a better offer.

[MasterBet]

To me, Nadal is not going to stop tonight, he plays great in this tournament and will be a very difficult test to Berdych,Although Berdych has not dropped one set in the tournament, is not played against a player who really can handle his power (which it shows in the last time) and control the pace of the game.I think Nadal will control the pace and force Berdych to play more with the back hand (this is his weaker side) and wins the game.

[Hardcoar]

ok i see your point. but from a bankroll sense i would rather have a 0.5 unit parlay with nadal in it to win a unit, instead of a +2unit bet to win a unit just all on nadal.

Yes I realize you wouldn't risk the same amount if parlayed, but you're also significantly increasing the risk of the bet. There's nothing stopping you from making a smaller bet on Nadal either, but if you're not too confident in him then simply don't bet. I don't see the problem in that respect.

[Demonata]

Come on Nadal.

[Demonata]

3-3 good match so far

[Demonata]

Break him now Nadal.

[Sam_Hawkins]

btw have you noticed what nadal does at serve? I'm loling all the time watching that:
1) pulls the shorts from his ass
2) adjusts tee on one shoulder
3) adjusts tee on the other shoulder
4) FINAL COMBO: puts hair behind one ear -> touches nose -> puts hair behind the other ear

EVERY-SINGLE-SERVE.

[Michael_Flieger]

btw have you noticed what nadal does at serve? I'm loling all the time watching that:
1) pulls the shorts from his ass
2) adjusts tee on one shoulder
3) adjusts tee on the other shoulder
4) FINAL COMBO: puts hair behind one ear -> touches nose -> puts hair behind the other ear

EVERY-SINGLE-SERVE.

That punctilious repetition is one reason he's great. Everything must be just so. Focus on the small stuff and the big stuff will take care of itself.

[Demonata]

btw have you noticed what nadal does at serve? I'm loling all the time watching that:
1) pulls the shorts from his ass
2) adjusts tee on one shoulder
3) adjusts tee on the other shoulder
4) FINAL COMBO: puts hair behind one ear -> touches nose -> puts hair behind the other ear

EVERY-SINGLE-SERVE.

hahahahahahahaha

[Sport_Fish]

btw have you noticed what nadal does at serve? I'm loling all the time watching that:
1) pulls the shorts from his ass
2) adjusts tee on one shoulder
3) adjusts tee on the other shoulder
4) FINAL COMBO: puts hair behind one ear -> touches nose -> puts hair behind the other ear

EVERY-SINGLE-SERVE.

lol i was just gonna say he has the longest pre-serve routine and is so likely to get a time-violation...and he actually gets one

[ohumad]