Originally Posted by
Michael_Flieger
If you make 10 bets at avg 1.1 unit to win 1, and you make 1 bet at 11 units to win 10, how many bets have you made? I'd argue it's equivalent to making two big bets.
Look at what I posted the day I had peer at +450 and cashed. My tiny dogs made a bunch. But the profit was destroyed by my one, big, selective, hard-thought bet of the day. Your advice doesn't square with my posted experience - so far. It's been my big bets that have failed more than the dogs.
At the risk of sounding smart-ass, which is not my intention, if I knew which of my bets were going to lose, I wouldn't make them. Like I said, my basic rule - and I don't know how you could refine it to a science - is if you get a decent dog, anything over +120 or so, and you think there's at least a 40% chance it cashes, then play it. If you're getting 150 200 250 450 800 return, you don't need any more precision than that. The belief you can be more precise than that seems dubious to me. I mean, you can make a line and bet deviations of more than 2%, but that's kind of a bogus precision. I was very selective in my Puchkova (Sanchez) and Petkovic (Puig) picks. and I could give you several strong reasons for betting on the side I did. I lost both. It happens.