1. #36
    Michael_Flieger
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    Halep +200 (Davis): 1.00/2.00 win
    Espinosa +120 (King): 1.00/1.20 win

    .46 + 3.20 = +3.66 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-06-13 at 03:51 PM.

  2. #37
    Michael_Flieger
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    Morita-Tsurenko 21 over -120: 1.20/1.00 loss
    Craybas +588 (Burdette): 1.00/5.88 loss
    Scheepers +205 (Mladenovic): 1.00/2.05 win
    Arruabarrena-Vecino -105 (Karatantcheva): 1.05/1.00 win
    Puchkova -175 (Sanchez): 8.75/5.00 loss
    Min -120 (Lino): 1.20/1.00 loss
    Peer +450 (Erakovic): 1.00/4.50 win
    McHale -205 (Pironkova): 2.05/1.00 win

    +3.66 + -3.65 = +.01 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-06-13 at 10:51 PM.

  3. #38
    Hardcoar
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    That confident in Inhale and Min? Or the contrary in their opponents?

    Why do you think Puchkova odds are so high? :O

  4. #39
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    That confident in Inhale and Min? Or the contrary in their opponents?

    Why do you think Puchkova odds are so high? :O
    I keep betting against Min and losing, so I'll try on her. She fights hard. That's one of the main things I look for. Have to go with the ones who FIGHT, who are mentally tough. I dont know much about Min yet, still learning, but from what I've seen, she doesn't give up when behind, and I like that. Look at Soler today - another good example. I was more against Min because she's an American. Americans are usually weaker minded and less technically able than Europeans, for whatever reason. McHale, again, she fights. And I don't think Pironkova is that good. So I don't mind paying 2:1, I'm not betting that much. If McHale is down a set and break, I still think she can pull it out because she won't give up. And I think she is flat better than Pironkova. But I am not hugely familiar with Pironk, so not a huge bet. Arruaba - I'm playing against Karantcheva, who I don't think is good, and I get even money almost for the other side, I'll take it. Still learning about Arruaba but what I've seen is positive. Puchkova - I was very impressed with her last tournament. I've won on her about 5/6x. I'm going big on her today. I could be wrong. But she fights very hard and hits very impressive shots. In my opinion, the only reason she lost to Niculescu was because she was a little emotionally flat and physically tired after beating Venus Williams. I am hoping she is now rested, and I'm pretty sure she is better than Sanchez and will beat her. Sanchez has been nowhere I've noticed the last few weeks, whereas Puch has been playing and winning. Looking good every match. So that's my play of day. But it could lose, of course. It's difficult for me not seeing these matches. I play off numbers and visual impression and dont worry about stats. This stuff is crude. We just need to get a feel for who will win, we dont win more if we have scientifically precise reasoning why or lose more if our analysis is off. The key is to only take favs if you're pretty sure they're going to win. Otherwise I lay off or go with dogs. Today so far shows perfectly why dogs are the right way to go, at least early rounds. I'm just pissed I talked myself out of Pervak and Larsson, both of which cashed.

    I pull the number out of my ass, but I estimate Puch about 80% chance of winning, 20 of losing.

    Craybas - Burdette. Why not try an old pro over some chick named "Mallory" - especially with a 6x return! Worth a shot. Similar reasoning worked great on Mayr-Achleitner last tournament.

    Peer - she has played absolutely crap matches last 2x out that I've noticed. But she is not a bad player. I can very much see her rebounding against decent but far from unbeatable Erakovic. The line is much too high, there's no way you can take Erakovic on anything but a parlay - as I see it - if you like her. There's no way in the world you can make money betting players like Erakovic at 6:1 consistently. You have to be extremely choosy with that kind of number. By contrast, you can be fairly loose taking big dogs.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-06-13 at 03:59 PM.

  5. #40
    Hardcoar
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    As I love dogs I've been looking into Craybas, Peer, and Hlavavacka but I've stayed clear because I think they will all be anally raped. At the time of writing, one already has.

  6. #41
    Hardcoar
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    Not getting Puch odds at all TBH...

    Was gonna cash Petz @ 1.75 too but the POS retired. :P

  7. #42
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Not getting Puch odds at all TBH...

    Was gonna cash Petz @ 1.75 too but the POS retired. :P
    Puch odds are low, one thing that gives me pause. I'll stick with it, though. Tempted to buy back Min because I respect Lino, but will leave that alone too.

  8. #43
    Michael_Flieger
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    Garrigues -130 (Dellacqua): 1.30/1.00 win

    .01 + 1.00 = +1.01 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-06-13 at 10:52 PM.

  9. #44
    Michael_Flieger
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    Odd thing - 5dimes has no lines on men's matches today, and there were/are some good matchups. Anyone know why?

  10. #45
    Hardcoar
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    No I mean Puch odds should be much, much lower. I don't get why they are so damn high...

  11. #46
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    No I mean Puch odds should be much, much lower. I don't get why they are so damn high...
    I take it you didn't see her play the last 5-6 matches. Very impressive.

  12. #47
    Hardcoar
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    Read that again, and again, and again, until your mind is locked in.

    You didn't see her last 3-4 matches either, I'm sure. : )
    Last edited by Hardcoar; 03-06-13 at 05:40 PM.

  13. #48
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Read that again, and again, and again, until your mind is locked in.

    You didn't see her last 3-4 matches either, I'm sure. : )
    I have not seen her two qualifying matches this week. I saw pretty much all her matches last week. The pattern of play appears consistent. I do not think she is artificially elevated and about to come back down as we are perhaps seeing with Erakovic. That is, Puchkova may lose today, but it will take one hell of a battle to defeat her. That's my prediction. Backed by good money.

  14. #49
    Michael_Flieger
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    Read that again, and again, and again, until your mind is locked in.
    I don't know what you're alluding to here.

  15. #50
    Hardcoar
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    That you should read what I wrote again:

    I mean Puch odds should be much, much lower. I don't get why they are so damn high.

    This means I think she is much more likely to win than the odds imply.

    To further clarify: I also have money on Puch. I believe there is massive value at these odds.

  16. #51
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    That you should read what I wrote again:

    I mean Puch odds should be much, much lower. I don't get why they are so damn high.

    This means I think she is much more likely to win than the odds imply.

    To further clarify: I also have money on Puch. I believe there is massive value at these odds.
    Well, I may have used low/high (odds) wrong. I get confused by that.

    Let me substitute price. I think Puch should be favored by much more. As I said, or tried to say, that is the single biggest factor I'm worried about in betting ON her. There is some reason that line is not -250 or -400. Probably that reason is history, but I don't know, and am not going to try to figure out. I'll just take the hit if I'm wrong.

  17. #52
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    That you should read what I wrote again:

    I mean Puch odds should be much, much lower. I don't get why they are so damn high.

    This means I think she is much more likely to win than the odds imply.

    To further clarify: I also have money on Puch. I believe there is massive value at these odds.
    Without knowing, my guess would be that Puch has a 1-3 record against Sanchez, or something like that. But I am going a little blind because I'm not up on what's going on with Sanchez these days.


    ... Puch line starting to move, up to 210 from 175
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-06-13 at 06:22 PM.

  18. #53
    Hardcoar
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    Well I researched her opponent's results this year, and the players against whom she achieved those results, and she basically appears to suck ass, while Puchkova in her current form can compete with top players.

    The odds are insane to me!

    High odds = unlikely event.

  19. #54
    Hardcoar
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    H2H: 1-0 Sanchez:

    7/2012 CH Surprise (USA) Hard Maria Sanchez Olga Puchkova 4-6 6-0 6-2 1/4

  20. #55
    Michael_Flieger
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    Dolgopolov's car. Don't lol, it's not polite.

    http://instagram.com/p/WiSWAFnF2K/

    On twitter he says that he feels healthy for first time since Davis Cup, which is useful info, as he really bothered me with his play at Memphis. He really didn't seem to be trying for no apparent reason. Well, the reason apparently was that he didn't feel good. So he's looking at Wells as his season-start.

  21. #56
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    H2H: 1-0 Sanchez:

    7/2012 CH Surprise (USA) Hard Maria Sanchez Olga Puchkova 4-6 6-0 6-2 1/4
    Good stuff, Hardcoar, I appreciate that research.

    Yeah...this line is hard to figure...maybe Sanchez will spring something, but I'll pay to see it.

  22. #57
    Michael_Flieger
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    Q: Jerzy, it’s been many years since we’ve seen a young player make such a dramatic surge up the rankings. Having spent several years competing in the challengers and futures events (the lower levels of professional tennis), what changed for you in 2012?

    Jerzy Janowicz: It’s not a sudden improvement in my serve, forehand or backhand. Success in tennis depends on lots of small factors, and the difficult thing is putting it all together. You have to learn to understand yourself on the court, your limitations, how to make the most out of your style of play. My training had been virtually identical to the year before. The main difference has been in the mind. I’ve been a lot more aggressive in the rallies and making the first strike. I know I’m never going to be able to run from side to side without getting out of breath like (David) Ferrer or (Andy) Murray. So instead, the training and work we’ve done has all been focused on my style of play, which is about aggression.

    http://www.tennisviewmag.com/tennis-...bstacle-course

    WSJ on Kyrgios, rapidly rising 17yo from Australia
    http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2013/0...e+Daily+Fix%29
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-06-13 at 07:23 PM.

  23. #58
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michael_Flieger View Post
    Good stuff, Hardcoar, I appreciate that research.

    Yeah...this line is hard to figure...maybe Sanchez will spring something, but I'll pay to see it.
    Especially taking into account the trend of both players since their last meeting:

    Puchkova: Up 10000000 %.
    Sanchez: Down 90 %.

    On Jerzy for Roland Garros @ 800/1 by the way.

  24. #59
    Michael_Flieger
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    3-parlay

    Millman -560 (Kondo) win
    Sitak +230 (Moriya) cancelled
    Jones +195 (Sugita) w.o.

    .61/.11 win

    +1.01 + .11 = +1.12 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-07-13 at 03:33 AM.

  25. #60
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Especially taking into account the trend of both players since their last meeting:

    Puchkova: Up 10000000 %.
    Sanchez: Down 90 %.
    Yeah...just has feel of sweep-back after all these dogs cashing and everyone thinking same way. A little like Petkovic, I fear. 2-3 on serve as I type.

    On Jerzy for Roland Garros @ 800/1 by the way.
    Can't go wrong at 800/1.

  26. #61
    Michael_Flieger
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    Puch drops first set. This is where it's hard not to see it. We'll see what kind of fight she has in her.

  27. #62
    Michael_Flieger
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    Ben Rothenberg @BenRothenberg

    RT @Kfish_WTA: WC Maria Sanchez d. Puchkova for 1st career @WTA main draw win; this time last year MS was ranked No.480, currently No.112

  28. #63
    Hardcoar
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    Tricked me good!

    Did you watch the match?

  29. #64
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Tricked me good!

    Did you watch the match?
    No, just the score tracker. Was it available somewhere? I think they did this last year - no real feeds until second week.

    Should have trusted instincts on line. Too good to be true. Someone(s) had a darn good idea of what was probably going to happen there. Poor money management cost me a pretty big day, what with the Peer coming in.

  30. #65
    Hardcoar
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    I thought you were on Peer.

    No I wanted to know more about how things happened myself. I'm guessing Sanchez played well...

  31. #66
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    I thought you were on Peer.

    No I wanted to know more about how things happened myself. I'm guessing Sanchez played well...
    I was on Peer. But my big bet was on Puchkova. Sanchez won pretty easily, Puch only came close to breaking her very first serve.

  32. #67
    Michael_Flieger
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    Goffin +150 (Troicki): 1.00/1.50 win
    Tomic -275 (Bellucci): 2.75/1.00 win
    Gacon +363 (Hantuchova): 1.00/3.63 loss
    Svitolina +253 (Niculescu): 1.00/2.53 loss
    Rus +363 vs (U. Radwanska): 1.00/3.63 loss
    Martic +178 vs (Voegele): 1.00/1.78 loss
    Arvidsson +125 (Robson): 1.00/1.25 win
    Voskoboeva -140 (Krumm): 1.40/1.00 loss
    Puig -160 (Cornet): 1.60/1.00 loss
    Muguruza -145 (Jovanovski): 1.45/1.00 win
    Hradecka -240 (Townsend): 2.40/1.00 loss
    Oudin +400 (Keys): 1.00/4.00 loss

    1.12 + -5.35 = -4.23 units
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-08-13 at 12:14 AM.

  33. #68
    New England Pats
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    If you had only one tennis match to pick for the day, which would it be?

    If you're able to provide some insight along with your choice that would be great. Thanks!

  34. #69
    Hardcoar
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    Yeah you bet too much man! : D

    Dislike Goffin, Voskoboeva, Puig and Mugurza @ those odds.

    If you're interested, my favorite bet of the day is Granollers @ 3 (+200 for you crazy Americans).

    Also, I'm worried about how Martic and Dulgheru are doing. Do you know anything about their conditions?
    Last edited by Hardcoar; 03-07-13 at 12:43 PM.

  35. #70
    Michael_Flieger
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    Quote Originally Posted by New England Pats View Post
    If you had only one tennis match to pick for the day, which would it be?

    If you're able to provide some insight along with your choice that would be great. Thanks!
    I actually don't have one pick I like better than others today, as I liked Puchkova yesterday and Petkovic the day before (both losers, btw!). Today, in my view, is a day to go for dogs, shooting for a high return. Like yesterday. Keys over Oudin at -500? Why do people think Madison Keys is some kind of great player? There is no basis for that line. Will she win? It's likelier she wins than loses. But it's nowhere near -500, I can tell you that.

    I'm handicapped by not being able to see these matches yet. I'm playing for small amounts expecting to grind out small profit, looking for ones I can hit harder. The amounts I put show you where my stronger feelings are. For dogs, I'm mostly just playing a feeling the match is likelier to be competitive than the line suggests. Feelings are based on knowledge of circumstances. For favorites, I need a stronger reason. As the tournament moves along, the stronger picks will come.
    Last edited by Michael_Flieger; 03-07-13 at 05:08 PM.

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