1. 03-02-13 04:19 AM #1
    Sport_Fish
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    Berdych +5 vs Djokovic

    A bit surprised with how heavy Djoker is favoured here - Books not giving Berdych much of a chance to win here at all.

    But the spread of +5 is great. Berdych will need to either win a set, push one to a tie-break, or a 6-4 7-5 type victory will cash the bet and I think atleast one of those situations is very likely. Both have played some closely contested matches in the past and largely due to Berdych being a solid server and I believe he'll be able to hold enough times for this bet to be good.

    Even if Berdych isn't able to break Djokovic, this bet can still cash and I think its a good enough spread. He played well against Federer saving match-points and his confidence has to be soaring after making such a great come-back. Anytime you can get this spread with a solid server its good value and Berdych is certainly capable of even taking a set from Djokovic like he did at the AO.

    Some books have it at +4.5 but I'm taking +5 at 5dimes as the push insurance could come in handy if Berdych comes flat in one of the sets.
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  2. 03-02-13 04:52 AM #2
    Hardcoar
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    The spread is good, but there seems to be a great disproportionality between ML odds and spread odds in this case (for partially obvious reasons), and there was even more value in the ML @ 8 (1 unit returns a total of 8 units, actual profit = 7 units). As obviously as Djokovic is the clear favorite, he's being over-rated in my opinion.

    That, and the fact that posting a bet is utterly pointless unless accompanied by the odds you bet on.
    Last edited by Hardcoar; 03-02-13 at 05:11 AM.
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  3. 03-02-13 04:53 AM #3
    gaebiskon
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    +5 and even +5.5 are drifting out.
    Maybe books are expecting a straight set win with 2 breaks for one set type of victory.
    Berdych +5 opend 1.54 at Pinny and now it's 1.85
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  4. 03-02-13 04:56 AM #4
    Sport_Fish
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    I got +5 at -125
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  5. 03-02-13 05:08 AM #5
    GoBlue77
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    i like +5 as well but think it might be a sucker bet. -125 heritage
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  6. 03-02-13 05:16 AM #6
    Hardcoar
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    I might have bet a few units @ 8, but @ 7 the value is close to gone to me. I'm staying out of this one.
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  7. 03-02-13 08:04 AM #7
    ethandavis2
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    berdych lost to bautista, he gets killed today 6-3 6-2
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  8. 03-02-13 08:11 AM #8
    Hardcoar
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    How not to reason...
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  9. 03-02-13 08:31 AM #9
    ethandavis2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    How not to reason...
    i never said i was smart. just bitter about that loss still
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  10. 03-02-13 08:59 AM #10
    Foofighter
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    I'm going with under 21 -125. Djoker is playing at his top form again. Looking for a 6-3 , 6-4.
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  11. 03-02-13 09:30 AM #11
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ethandavis2 View Post
    i never said i was smart. just bitter about that loss still
    And I never said (or meant for that matter) you're stupid. I just think it was poor reasoning.

    That said, I (like everyone else obviously) expect Djokovic to win in straights, and three breaks isn't implausible at all. Not very probable either, however, in my opinion...

    Did you place any sort of wager on Djoko'?
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  12. 03-02-13 09:35 AM #12
    ethandavis2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    And I never said (or meant for that matter) you're stupid. I just think it was poor reasoning.

    That said, I (like everyone else obviously) expect Djokovic to win in straights, and three breaks isn't implausible at all. Not very probable either, however, in my opinion...

    Did you place any sort of wager on Djoko'?
    of course i did... just a moneyline wager
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  13. 03-02-13 09:38 AM #13
    Hardcoar
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    Judging by the match so far, it's a good thing you didn't bet on the spread. ^^
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  14. 03-02-13 09:40 AM #14
    ethandavis2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Judging by the match so far, it's a good thing you didn't bet on the spread. ^^
    i agree...Berdych won the 1st set against tsonga last week, then got beat, so he usually starts quick
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  15. 03-02-13 09:42 AM #15
    Ron29301
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    Didn't have time to get my set bet in. Errr....A little upset I couldn't possibly get an extra 1 hunit or 1 thou.
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  16. 03-02-13 09:42 AM #16
    Hardcoar
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    Interestingly, cannot the same be said against Federer?

    If so, which player has the greater tendency to start strong and finish weaker?
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  17. 03-02-13 10:07 AM #17
    Foofighter
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    My under 21 looks dead at 5-5 1st set but tennis usually surprises me.
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  18. 03-02-13 10:09 AM #18
    Sport_Fish
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    Well done by this clown Berdych...

    Up 4-3 on serve with several game points, doesnt convert and gets broken. At 4-4 he gets up 15-40 on Djoker serve, doesn't convert a break. And now follows up two UE's on his serve with a double-fault to lose the set. Can't believe he couldn't get atleast a tie-break in that set. Unreal.

    Smell a possible meltdown coming...a push on the +5 would do just fine here
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  19. 03-02-13 10:32 AM #19
    Ron29301
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    You'll get that +5. Either push or outright win.
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  20. 03-02-13 10:52 AM #20
    Sport_Fish
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    Yup just fine with a push when u got a nutcase like Berdych.

    Even though this guy had so many ridiculous chances to seal the deal in both sets, can't complain about a push.
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  21. 03-02-13 10:54 AM #21
    Demonata
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    +5 was still way too high for djokovic so a push is fine.
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