[lazylover]

Share opinions?

[EaglesPhan36]

Difference between injured and over the hill. I wouldn't lay Nadal -230 at this point since the knee is still very questionable, but Nalbandian is just as likely to be gassed tomorrow after a long week. Interesting match. Win would be massive for Rafa's confidence given that he is still far less than 100% and also would be a warning shot to folks that when Rafa gets close to 100% [if he does] - that he's still going to be the King of Clay until proven otherwise.

All that being said, I would be shocked if Rafa wasn't extremely motivated to win and give everyone a big "fukk u" with a title under his belt. Losing two finals in a row would be a bit tough for his morale, but obviously understandable with the ongoing rehab.

[MUHerd37]

I like Nadal here. How can u ever back Fat Dave?

[lazylover]

What about this point:

"Can you explain to me how on earth Nadal will defeat Nalbandian?"

"As evidenced, Nadal can't retrieve at all, his movement is MIA and his favourite tactic (heavy topspin to the backhand) doesn't work on Nalbandian's premium BH."

[Optional]

After this long, and with the benefit of any and every treatment available, to still be struggling with the knee this much... I'm starting to fear this might Rafa's last year.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Rafa doesnt have the same bite on his groundstrokes imo. His movement is ok but I definitely can see a dip in his strokes especially the forehand. That used to be one helluva weapon but recently its been average at best. This is against non top ten players also.

I don't see him making even the semifinals this year at Roland Garros.

[lazylover]

Top-ten is one thing. The question is will he beat Nalbandian

[EaglesPhan36]

Rafa doesnt have the same bite on his groundstrokes imo. His movement is ok but I definitely can see a dip in his strokes especially the forehand. That used to be one helluva weapon but recently its been average at best. This is against non top ten players also.

I don't see him making even the semifinals this year at Roland Garros.

It's only February. He's got three full months ahead of it, can't really say at this point what he is going to be after just two weeks of match play. If this was April, surely he'd be a long shot to be a major threat in the best of 5 format. If he manages himself right over the next three months and the knee improves as they are expecting ... no one is going to want to play him. The major issue could end up being his draw since his ranking is going to likely put him into position where he'll have to beat Federer, Djokovic, Murray or Ferrer to get to the semis.

[Hangoverblack]

This line is a great surprise, because I think the books are too easily showing their hand.
At -230, they are begging for Nadal money. In fact, they are setting the line so far toward Nabaldian that nearly all public money will come in on Nadal, and sharp money will be disgusted at the return a punt on Fat Dave would give, and may pass altogether.

Looks like Po Boys from Cafe NABALDIAN tommorrow. This is very intriguing. I will wait and watch the line hoping (but not expecting) the line will steam toward Nadal.

A glance at the early TI breakdown has the majority on Dave at this time. Always hate to see that.

[Sam_Hawkins]

I don't see him being a big threat in the future either...his style of game is just devastating his body with every shot he makes. I'm actually surprised he made it that long on atp tour without his joints falling apart completely. So yeah, he may be partly alright, he may defeat nalbandian but he will be dead after full season of his clay tennis.

[Billy M]

Anybody know what time Nadel match starts , one says 10am the other site I looked said 1pm??

[swissbank007]

at nadal(1.44) its soooooooo tempting to put 4-5-6-7-8-more!!! units on it.....but with nalbandian, one never knows how he is physiquely and how he will show up mentally on the court.....i think i will stay away from this one!!!.....unless someone has some insights about nalbandian!!

[Sumalia]

I just parlayed Serena and Nalbandian which means you should fade one of the two if not both.

[lazylover]

I think Nadal will win but I cannot lay that number with the chance he could lose

[swissbank007]

ive decided after a looooooooooong thinking(loool) to put just one unit on Nalbandian....cant risk 10 units on Nadal...tooo much incertitude about him and with nalbandian one never knows.....i think 1 unit on Nalbandian is the way to go: if he win good little profit, if he loses small lose

[Hangoverblack]

Took Nadal for 15 units.

i just couldn't help it!

[swissbank007]

my god!!!its what i wanted to do!!! and i gave up that thought...but reading you i feel like doing it again

[Hangoverblack]

From TI:

Moneyline Summary (1.50/2.84)
Rafael Nadal: 26 tips ($2661 staked)
David Nalbandian: 45 tips ($5780 staked)

If this represents the action books are seeing, then...

[Spanks]

I will take Fat Dave over Rafa's bad knees and this indoor clay's fast surface...

[Optional]

From TI:

Moneyline Summary (1.50/2.84)
Rafael Nadal: 26 tips ($2661 staked)
David Nalbandian: 45 tips ($5780 staked)

If this represents the action books are seeing, then...

$419,374 matched on Betfair
$333,026 of that on Nadal

[Hangoverblack]

Fat Dave with the first Hiccup!

kind of smells like gumbo

[MUHerd37]

Nadal broke him

[Hangoverblack]

Looks like Dave is sharing a Bagel off his plate,

6-2, 0-6?

[Hangoverblack]

Nadal backers:

tips always appreciated..

4-3 good guys!

[Sumalia]

I just parlayed Serena and Nalbandian which means you should fade one of the two if not both.

...

[EaglesPhan36]

Will be watching Nadal a lot in the next month to see if the knee finally shows a bit of improvement. He may not have had to beat any top tier talent, but I don't think you should underestimate what this win does for his confidence in continuing to rehab.

Obviously, he needs the knee to get much closer to 100% to start beating anyone in the Top 50 even on a consistent basis, but as usual he's shown he's a fighter and you can't underestimate that part of his game. Important thing now for him is to rest. Not sure what he is doing for Indian Wells or Miami, I think he is on the entry list for Indian Wells - but that doesn't mean he'll necessarily be playing. I think if he's smart, he plays one of those two and skips the other to be ready for the month of April and clay court tennis leading into Roland Garros. We'll see how smartly he manages himself.

[MUHerd37]

It will be interesting to see how he plays on the hard courts.

[EaglesPhan36]

If it weren't for him losing a lot of ranking points by not playing, I think he'd probably sit out both Indian Wells and Miami in prep for Euro clay season. I don't think he gives two shits about anything but keeping the French Open dominance. But if he skips, I think he loses quite a few points having made the semis in both last year. Not sure if he would get caught by Berdych or Del Potro and drop as low as something like #7. Not really sure there's much of a difference once you fall out of the top four if you're #5 or #10 though. You might get a tougher match a round earlier if you're #10 vs. #5, but I think it'd be not that big a difference.

[Sport_Fish]

I love how some people are already concluding how bad Nadal will be from now on.

The guy is coming off a serious injury and 6+ months off...did anyone really expect him to jump on the courts and be playing at 'Nadal' level or even close to it? I'm not saying whether he will be himself again or not, but to draw conclusions in such a short time frame is absurd to say the least.

I think it will take a few months and a couple of grand slams for us, and even Nadal himself, to find out how far he can go from here on out.

[Hardcoar]

I love how some people are already concluding how bad Nadal will be from now on.

The guy is coming off a serious injury and 6+ months off...did anyone really expect him to jump on the courts and be playing at 'Nadal' level or even close to it? I'm not saying whether he will be himself again or not, but to draw conclusions in such a short time frame is absurd to say the least.

I think it will take a few months and a couple of grand slams for us, and even Nadal himself, to find out how far he can go from here on out.

My sentiments exactly. I suppose people get that way when they lose a bet. :P

Time shall tell.