1. #1
    tennisncbb
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    New guy looking for some hedging help

    Hey everyone I have been watching this forum for a few months now and want to first of all say thanks to everyone for the hard work they put into helping everyone kill the books. I follow a few of you religiously and I feel I have a good tennis perspective and can hopefully help some of you out as well. FIrst I need some more help tho and I greatly appreciate any advice. Obviously I know this is a tennis and not a soccer forum but I have seeked assistance from a few soccer forums and have gotten zero responses . Hopeully I have better luck here as i feel i have a golden opportunity but dont know quite how to attack it and usually I have no problems with hedging.

    Heres the situation, and once again I no this is not a soccer forum but I have seen some soccer convos before so Im hoping someone can help. I need a draw in the porto malaga game for a huge payout, obviously not likely but anythings possible. I do a 5$ parlay for fun everyday and I find it amazing how much easier wins come when you need six of them then when you need just one lol. Usually I am a straight wager player however. Anyway how do you hedge a draw? Bet on both teams money line? and for how much? I just want a nice profit. Im not interested in waiting it out and seeing what happens. Thats not my style

    Thanks for having me guys ill start posting plays shortly and will keep my record updated daily

    02/14 04:42 AM 1436341127- 1 Money Line $5.00 $1,812.03 Tennis Tennis Men - Martin Klizan +145 for GameTennis Tennis Men - Marcos Baghdatis +210 for Game
    Tennis Tennis Men - Steve Johnson +130 for Game
    Tennis Tennis Men - Filippo Volandri +130 for Game
    Tennis Tennis Women - Samantha Stosur +170 for Game
    Soccer Champions League - Draw (FC Porto vs Malaga) +235 for Game









  2. #2
    tennisncbb
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    First play

    Isner malisse over 23 -130

    I see three sets here but this is obtainable in two tight sets or atleast a push is. I feel like whoever wins the first will ease up a bit in the second and they'll head to a third where isner will probably squeeze it out 12-10 in a tie break or something ridiculous

  3. #3
    Blax0r
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    First, congrats on the great position! You've definitely already earned some money, and can cash out risklessly.

    Assuming 5/6 on Porto and 3 on Malaga, you'd need to place $988 on Porto and $453 on Malaga to guarantee ~$365 in profit. (Of course, you should double-check the math)

    I would, however, figure out how much you still want on the original position, and then adjust your hedges to reflect that (ie, lower hedge values on Porto and Malaga) since your position is crazily +EV.

    *edit* I just realized the odds I used seem obsolete; if you provide odds that you have access to, I can more accurately tell you how to hedge out.
    Last edited by Blax0r; 02-15-13 at 03:49 PM.

  4. #4
    tennisncbb
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    Thanks a lot for the response. That makes sense. I wish there was a way to guarantee half the payout but I guess thats not the case with a draw. again thanks for the advice

  5. #5
    Blax0r
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    Yea, you basically need the final parlay leg to be the odds-maker "favorite" for a soccer match at 1/2 payout.

  6. #6
    tennisncbb
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    good point. I no why I picked all the tennis plays but im not actually sure why i picked that draw lol. I actually thought it was being played yesterday and I hit a couple draws on wednesday so figured id give it a shot. After looking into it now a draw doesnt seem to be out of the question in that match by any means

  7. #7
    tennisncbb
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    Well I lose my debut due to the long lost isner devastating return game lol. Malisse just threw in the towel and for no reason cuz jon would have easily let him hang around.

    Next play

    Raonic ML -400 Querrey ML -425 Azarenka ML -525 Parlay (-120)

  8. #8
    tennisncbb
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    YTD: 1-1

    Querrey +2 (-115)

    Querrey over 25

    In their past meetings over 6 sets roanic has broken querrey only once. I find that a good reason to back querrey. There could easily be two tie breaks the first two sets so I like the over as well.

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