1. #1
    El Sol
    El Sol's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-08
    Posts: 876
    Betpoints: 1802

    Pattaya Final Lisicki / Kirilenko

    Kirilenko has been in control, mentally stable and consistent through out this tournament while Lisicki wins were all in error filled, sloppy games versus inferior players. Looking at stats and numbers, you can make a claim this should be a close match, and the odds somewhat reflect that making Kirilenko, in my opinion a mild Favorite, at -200. But I have additional information that supports my assessment that she should be closer to -500.

    Both players have been able to handle the heat and humidity, however it appears it has taken Lisicki a set to warm up. Versus the competition she was facing, this didn't hurt her. But it must be noted that she has consistently fell behind in all her first sets only to be gifted the breaks back through horrendous play by her opponents. She will get no such gifts with Kirilenko.

    I certainly don't put Kirilenko in the upper echelon of tennis competition, but she is without question the most consistent player in this tournament and also has faced adversity playing in form competitors.

    Based on the my belief that Lisicki has needed the first set in the last three matches to get warmed up, Im pretty confident at laying the -170 to win two units on Kirilenko to win the first set. Lisicki has played better in her second sets so it is possible this could go to a third. But, personally, I have Kiri dominating her through out so Im comfortable playing 2 - 0 at +120 risking an additional unit.

    Kirilenko First set at -170

    or

    -200 for the match

    or

    to win 2 - 0 at +120

    all good bets depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance

    Good luck

  2. #2
    skidrow
    skidrow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-10
    Posts: 539
    Betpoints: 300

    Quote Originally Posted by El Sol View Post
    Kirilenko has been in control, mentally stable and consistent through out this tournament while Lisicki wins were all in error filled, sloppy games versus inferior players. Looking at stats and numbers, you can make a claim this should be a close match, and the odds somewhat reflect that making Kirilenko, in my opinion a mild Favorite, at -200. But I have additional information that supports my assessment that she should be closer to -500.

    Both players have been able to handle the heat and humidity, however it appears it has taken Lisicki a set to warm up. Versus the competition she was facing, this didn't hurt her. But it must be noted that she has consistently fell behind in all her first sets only to be gifted the breaks back through horrendous play by her opponents. She will get no such gifts with Kirilenko.

    I certainly don't put Kirilenko in the upper echelon of tennis competition, but she is without question the most consistent player in this tournament and also has faced adversity playing in form competitors.

    Based on the my belief that Lisicki has needed the first set in the last three matches to get warmed up, Im pretty confident at laying the -170 to win two units on Kirilenko to win the first set. Lisicki has played better in her second sets so it is possible this could go to a third. But, personally, I have Kiri dominating her through out so Im comfortable playing 2 - 0 at +120 risking an additional unit.

    Kirilenko First set at -170

    or

    -200 for the match

    or

    to win 2 - 0 at +120

    all good bets depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance

    Good luck
    i just saw the moneyline drop to -157 ...what does this reflect more...sharp, or last minute betters money coming in?

  3. #3
    gaebiskon
    gaebiskon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-12
    Posts: 869
    Betpoints: 5062

    if you can place in-play bets, then wait for better odds on kirilenko
    kirilenko will be too consistent for inconsistent sabine
    Points Awarded:

    skidrow gave gaebiskon 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    skidrow
    skidrow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-10
    Posts: 539
    Betpoints: 300

    i went with EL SoLs write up and plays. good match, im surprised line dropped even lower. back to watching. cheers!

  5. #5
    El Sol
    El Sol's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-08
    Posts: 876
    Betpoints: 1802

    Im in US so I dont have live betting, I wish I did

  6. #6
    El Sol
    El Sol's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-17-08
    Posts: 876
    Betpoints: 1802

    Lisi playing a little better than I predicted

  7. #7
    MagicDiceFlow
    blinded by nostalgia
    MagicDiceFlow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-15-12
    Posts: 4,585

    Kirilenko is the better more balanced player no doubt. However, what always keeps Lisicki in the match is her strong serving. It bails her out numerous times from getting broken.

    I didn't bet on this match but good luck to you guys with Kirilenko.

  8. #8
    skidrow
    skidrow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-10
    Posts: 539
    Betpoints: 300

    Quote Originally Posted by El Sol View Post
    Lisi playing a little better than I predicted
    nah, you were right in your write up lisi i still think is lucky...kiri seems to be the all round better player. nice serve too. watching a good match..lets see her pull away now

  9. #9
    skidrow
    skidrow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-10
    Posts: 539
    Betpoints: 300

    now shes just beating her self. too much power etc

  10. #10
    skidrow
    skidrow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-16-10
    Posts: 539
    Betpoints: 300

    come on now baby!!! lets do it!!!!

  11. #11
    Tmuston Beltics
    Tmuston Beltics's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-14-13
    Posts: 1,253
    Betpoints: 24

    K there goes my 2-0 on Kirilenko..

  12. #12
    nocturnal012
    nocturnal012's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-25-11
    Posts: 893
    Betpoints: 12022


  13. #13
    MagicDiceFlow
    blinded by nostalgia
    MagicDiceFlow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-15-12
    Posts: 4,585

    Kirilenko's game excels at keeping the balls in play and breaking her opponents serve. When Lisicki's serving this well, its gonna be tough for Kirilenko to get looks at second serves. Still got a long way to go and I've seen Kirilenko come back many times down a set.......but it's gonna be tough if Lisicki keeps pounding those first serves.

  14. #14
    gaebiskon
    gaebiskon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-12
    Posts: 869
    Betpoints: 5062

    it isn't over yet guise
    unless she's really on, like once or twice a year, sabine can't keep this level of play for much longer

  15. #15
    ohumad
    ohumad's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-12
    Posts: 2,298
    Betpoints: 60

    Double or nothing let's go Kirilenko!

  16. #16
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    Kirilenko... wow... took her down a set and almost down 0-2 second set b4 she finally got going??? wtf

    i laid 2.15 units on this girls ML for a unit

  17. #17
    gaebiskon
    gaebiskon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-12
    Posts: 869
    Betpoints: 5062

    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    Kirilenko... wow... took her down a set and almost down 0-2 second set b4 she finally got going??? wtf

    i laid 2.15 units on this girls ML for a unit
    to sabine's credit, she really played solid first set and this is nothing special in women's tennis, much worse happen on a regular basis

  18. #18
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    Quote Originally Posted by gaebiskon View Post
    to sabine's credit, she really played solid first set and this is nothing special in women's tennis, much worse happen on a regular basis
    yeah i know, I am a tennis newb... somehow I cashed pretty good betting on the A.Open but that was mainly sticking to the men

    if i hadn't done well with the A.Open I wouldn't be placing bets on this random wta event with players I know nothing about... just a degenerate late night bet to start off Super Bowl Sunday

  19. #19
    ohumad
    ohumad's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-12
    Posts: 2,298
    Betpoints: 60


  20. #20
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    wtf is this bitch doing

  21. #21
    ohumad
    ohumad's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-12
    Posts: 2,298
    Betpoints: 60

    Are you kidding me holy crap! Hit it IN! IN!

  22. #22
    gaebiskon
    gaebiskon's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-12
    Posts: 869
    Betpoints: 5062

    kirilenko choking hard

  23. #23
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    stupid hoe ill slap the shit outta this bitch, probably thinking

    "I'm allowed to choke cause I'm not fugly"

  24. #24
    ohumad
    ohumad's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-12
    Posts: 2,298
    Betpoints: 60

    K 5 match points here don't get too excited

  25. #25
    ThaTopMoron
    Body-Bags
    ThaTopMoron's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-10
    Posts: 26,539
    Betpoints: 6858

    wtf... i went from early on thinking my bet was toast... to oh she turned it around completely and is in cruise control... to omg this girl is choking like no other... then she puts herself in position with her back against the wall then she gets it back and takes over in tie break pts

    just another dumb bitch, but hell cashed a unit on her

  26. #26
    ohumad
    ohumad's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-12
    Posts: 2,298
    Betpoints: 60

    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    wtf... i went from early on thinking my bet was toast... to oh she turned it around completely and is in cruise control... to omg this girl is choking like no other... then she puts herself in position with her back against the wall then she gets it back and takes over in tie break pts

    just another dumb bitch, but hell cashed a unit on her
    NBA doesn't have shit on the WTA: Where amazing happens.

Top