Kirilenko has been in control, mentally stable and consistent through out this tournament while Lisicki wins were all in error filled, sloppy games versus inferior players. Looking at stats and numbers, you can make a claim this should be a close match, and the odds somewhat reflect that making Kirilenko, in my opinion a mild Favorite, at -200. But I have additional information that supports my assessment that she should be closer to -500.
Both players have been able to handle the heat and humidity, however it appears it has taken Lisicki a set to warm up. Versus the competition she was facing, this didn't hurt her. But it must be noted that she has consistently fell behind in all her first sets only to be gifted the breaks back through horrendous play by her opponents. She will get no such gifts with Kirilenko.
I certainly don't put Kirilenko in the upper echelon of tennis competition, but she is without question the most consistent player in this tournament and also has faced adversity playing in form competitors.
Based on the my belief that Lisicki has needed the first set in the last three matches to get warmed up, Im pretty confident at laying the -170 to win two units on Kirilenko to win the first set. Lisicki has played better in her second sets so it is possible this could go to a third. But, personally, I have Kiri dominating her through out so Im comfortable playing 2 - 0 at +120 risking an additional unit.
Kirilenko First set at -170
or
-200 for the match
or
to win 2 - 0 at +120
all good bets depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance
Good luck