[MagicDiceFlow]

Be prepared for an entertaining and potential epic matchup tonight when Murray meets the swiss master. Books have hung an opening line at -155 Murray which have been pounded early by the public down to -140 currently. I expect this line to dip a bit lower by match time as the public is leaning heavily towards Federer. I'm predicting about 60% or more of the betting public will be on Fed tonight and rightfully so as the swiss is in terrific form currently.

I'm not taking Murray just to be cool or to be on the opposite end of the public, I truly believe the Scot will hold an advantage over Fed tonight. If we can get a number near -135, I believe there is some value here.

There is no mental edge between these two. Everyone pretty much knows on paper, it's been a back and forth seesaw battle with Murray holding the 10-9 edge but Roger holds the significant edge in slams 3-0. However, I would personally count the gold medal win at the Olympics by Murray significant mentally for the Scot. With that win, Murray had propelled his mental game tremendously and proceeded to win his first slam at the US Open, beating his arch rival Djokovic. Since then, Murray has continued his fine form.

I see a lot of writers mention that Murray hasn't really been challenged this tournament and that could affect him negatively. I differ on that notion. Murray knows now that he has the skills to beat any of the big four on any given day. Conserving his energy and most importantly, conserving that "mental juice" needed to win a big match like today is vital.

Here is where Murray will have the edge over Fed today. I believe the big match between Fed and Tsonga the other night will actually affect Roger PHYSICALLY tonight. Roger had a stellar first serve percentage the whole tournament but as the match grinded on with Tsonga, we saw dips in service percentage that allowed Tsonga to get back into the match. Is this mental or physical for Roger? Was this Tsonga returning better? It wasn't mental because Roger has been here/done that so many times at slams, not much can phase the master..... I think it was a physical dip in energy for Roger.

If it comes down to a physical grind it out type match, Murray holds the edge....a significant edge. Murray would be fine going toe to toe in a five setter versus Roger. However, I don't think Fed will have enough physically to overcome another tough 4 to 5 hour match. Sure, he turned it on when he needed it on that last set versus Tsonga. However, the dimensions of that last set will be totally different with Murray on the other end. Djokovic and Murray are the two best returners in the game, hands down. They are also the two best defenders in the game. Murray won't allow Fed to press him wide or deep as much as he did with Tsonga.

Another edge for Murray is that he has one of the best returns in the game from the ad court. If it comes down to a tight and final set, the ad court becomes a significant side especially for big right handed servers like Federer. The deuce court will always favor righties but the edge might come down to how he serves from the ad court which is normally their weaker side. Murray has one of the best backhand returns in the game thus neutralizing Roger's favorite wide service angles. If it comes down to a final set and Roger has a slight dip in serving, Andy will feast on those second serves.

I like Murray tonight and -138 has some value........best of luck.

[tevari]

i think it's an absolute pick'em. GL anyway, MDF

[davopnz]

If it comes down a final set Murray will choke lol

[shari91]

I think it's going to be a boring matchup... just like every other flippin one other than Wawa/Djoko. But I do think Murray takes it. It will have nothing to do with physicality imo. Fed is a beast as far as fitness goes, especially with living and training in Dubai. But he just isn't as sharp with his serve and the lines as he once was. He's always had too many errors when it came to rallies but no one was strong enough to see them off. Now it's a different story and he's sinking balls into the net on his own. Murray's returns will be a key but not *the* key I don't think... Fed just won't be able to play the up and down game that he always does with a guy of Murray's calibre on the other side of the court. One lull and he'll be punished... you could see it every time against Tsonga.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I think it's going to be a boring matchup... just like every other flippin one other than Wawa/Djoko. But I do think Murray takes it. It will have nothing to do with physicality imo. Fed is a beast as far as fitness goes, especially with living and training in Dubai. But he just isn't as sharp with his serve and the lines as he once was. He's always had too many errors when it came to rallies but no one was strong enough to see them off. Now it's a different story and he's sinking balls into the net on his own. Murray's returns will be a key but not *the* key I don't think... Fed just won't be able to play the up and down game that he always does with a guy of Murray's calibre on the other side of the court. One lull and he'll be punished... you could see it every time against Tsonga.

Federer vs Tsonga was boring???? I thought that was quite an exciting match.

Murray's return game will be the key tonight. I just dont see Roger being able to sustain that high serving percentage over the course of 4 to 5 sets.

I see Murray taking this in four or five sets.

[Sharp Snake]

I don't think this is anywhere near a pickem with the way Federer played against tsonga. I'm taking Murray in some form myself just trying to decide how.

[matt1216]

Ya, I don know why People are on Fed here...... Murray in 3 or 4 sets. Fed will mentally hit a wall tonight i think. I dont see this being as lopsided as the Djoker/ferrer match, but i see a 7-6 7-6 4-6 6-4 Murray win

[shari91]

Federer vs Tsonga was boring???? I thought that was quite an exciting match.

Murray's return game will be the key tonight. I just dont see Roger being able to sustain that high serving percentage over the course of 4 to 5 sets.

I see Murray taking this in four or five sets.

I had a friend there and they said the energy was horrible. Players and crowd... it was like they were watching Downton Abbey or something. And even just watching it, the energy wasn't picking up (at least from our view) when Tsonga was getting back into it. There was always that inevitable air that Fed would win which was completely different from Djoko vs Wawa. Maybe just a result of the commentators... not sure... but I really haven't felt like I've watched a $150 to $3200 match between any of these guys yet other than Djoko/Wawa. Everyone else has been kind of meh. Again... might've been different based on how you watched it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Interesting take. As usual, I'm likely to avoid a side other than live betting - but I think Federer has a legit shot here. Murray has been far too loose with his own service games against inferior guys like Chardy and Simon, getting broken multiple times. I'm sure he'll raise his level a notch tonight, but I really think the type of match Federer had to play against Tsonga was a better primer for this rather than being in a match where he won easily. Nothing will be easy tonight.

I think one big thing I want to see here is motivation. Now that Murray has the monkey off his back, is he just relieved when he plays these matches because he has that Slam in the pocket or is he driven like Djokovic, Federer and Nadal to win more. Never a question about Federer's motivation because he probably wants it more now than he ever has because of a shorter window of opportunity. I'm sure Murray wants another, but without the pressure of winning one ... I'm just curious to see his approach.

[GirlCanCapToo]

Interesting take. As usual, I'm likely to avoid a side other than live betting - but I think Federer has a legit shot here. Murray has been far too loose with his own service games against inferior guys like Chardy and Simon, getting broken multiple times. I'm sure he'll raise his level a notch tonight, but I really think the type of match Federer had to play against Tsonga was a better primer for this rather than being in a match where he won easily. Nothing will be easy tonight.

I think one big thing I want to see here is motivation. Now that Murray has the monkey off his back, is he just relieved when he plays these matches because he has that Slam in the pocket or is he driven like Djokovic, Federer and Nadal to win more. Never a question about Federer's motivation because he probably wants it more now than he ever has because of a shorter window of opportunity. I'm sure Murray wants another, but without the pressure of winning one ... I'm just curious to see his approach.

Come on, man. After betting for all these years, you should know that is Murray's game. He plays down and up to his competition. He often loses focus for half a set or so against inferior opponents. Loose service games vs. Chardy and Simon are more a reflection of his personality, than his game. This is how he has been his whole career.

And, comparing motivation in a grand slam semifinal is a complete joke. Murray wants this as much as Federer. They don't train for months and months to come out with less desire than their opponent.

[EaglesPhan36]

We'll see. He was obviously well motivated to get the first one and the Gold Medal, but things can change after #1. I guess level of motivation is more what I meant. There will as you say obviously always be a certain level of motivation, I just wonder if it will be as high as the multiple Slam winners. That's what I want to see.

[El Sol]

Murray has matured immensely under trainer Ivan Lendl. He finally has a Slam alleviating the pressure to win one and instilling an all out aggressive game that he didnt have two years ago. Hes still young, powerful, smart, fast and most importunately ambitious. Both in their prime, Federer is the better player, but Fed isnt in his prime anymore and you cant cheat age forever IMO. Fed seems to have lost a step in his speed and instead he's relying his vast tennis knowledge and tactics to keep him in the game.

I highly predict Murrey to play an Offensive match throughout keeping Federer on his heels. His backhand and on the run passing shots are the best in the biz negating Fererer's tactical advantage.

I personally have Murrey winning 3-0 0r 3-1 and give him a 60 - 65% overall chance to win.

[matt1216]

Murray has matured immensely under trainer Ivan Lendl. He finally has a Slam alleviating the pressure to win one and instilling an all out aggressive game that he didnt have two years ago. Hes still young, powerful, smart, fast and most importunately ambitious. Both in their prime, Federer is the better player, but Fed isnt in his prime anymore and you cant cheat age forever IMO. Fed seems to have lost a step in his speed and instead he's relying his vast tennis knowledge and tactics to keep him in the game.

I highly predict Murrey to play an Offensive match throughout keeping Federer on his heels. His backhand and on the run passing shots are the best in the biz negating Fererer's tactical advantage.

I personally have Murrey winning 3-0 0r 3-1 and give him a 60 - 65% overall chance to win.

Agreed, I think people will be shocked here. Im all over the Murray play

[Sharp Snake]

I think one big thing I want to see here is motivation. Now that Murray has the monkey off his back, is he just relieved when he plays these matches because he has that Slam in the pocket or is he driven like Djokovic, Federer and Nadal to win more. Never a question about Federer's motivation because he probably wants it more now than he ever has because of a shorter window of opportunity. I'm sure Murray wants another, but without the pressure of winning one ... I'm just curious to see his approach.

The mental side is all fine and dandy, and I agree with you, but the aspect I think most people are overlooking is that Murray is a better player than Federer is right now.

[Catchn_Picks]

Win or lose Magic, thank you for the excellent write up. Lots of good information. Already got Murray fairly small...going to look at it again. I think 3-1 is the most likely conclusion. I may be wrong but I can't imagine Fed not getting a set.

My impression of Murray is a stalker...not a knock out artist. Like you said...the deeper he goes the better his odds is.

gl all

[MagicDiceFlow]

Win or lose Magic, thank you for the excellent write up. Lots of good information. Already got Murray fairly small...going to look at it again. I think 3-1 is the most likely conclusion. I may be wrong but I can't imagine Fed not getting a set.

My impression of Murray is a stalker...not a knock out artist. Like you said...the deeper he goes the better his odds is.

gl all

Yes, you're right about Murray being a stalker CatchP. His game has that predatory style. You miss a few first serves here and there and next thing you know it's break point for Murray.

GL guys whoever you take, it will be a great match.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Murray has matured immensely under trainer Ivan Lendl. He finally has a Slam alleviating the pressure to win one and instilling an all out aggressive game that he didnt have two years ago. Hes still young, powerful, smart, fast and most importunately ambitious. Both in their prime, Federer is the better player, but Fed isnt in his prime anymore and you cant cheat age forever IMO. Fed seems to have lost a step in his speed and instead he's relying his vast tennis knowledge and tactics to keep him in the game.

I highly predict Murrey to play an Offensive match throughout keeping Federer on his heels. His backhand and on the run passing shots are the best in the biz negating Fererer's tactical advantage.

I personally have Murrey winning 3-0 0r 3-1 and give him a 60 - 65% overall chance to win.

Very good points El Sol. I totally agree with you in that Fed won't be able to cheat age forever. Not saying that it will happen tonight but it's undeniable that Roger has lost a step in speed. Not a big loss but a minor chip can add up to a big dent over the course of a four/five setter.

Gl on your bet.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Interesting take. As usual, I'm likely to avoid a side other than live betting - but I think Federer has a legit shot here. Murray has been far too loose with his own service games against inferior guys like Chardy and Simon, getting broken multiple times. I'm sure he'll raise his level a notch tonight, but I really think the type of match Federer had to play against Tsonga was a better primer for this rather than being in a match where he won easily. Nothing will be easy tonight.

I think one big thing I want to see here is motivation. Now that Murray has the monkey off his back, is he just relieved when he plays these matches because he has that Slam in the pocket or is he driven like Djokovic, Federer and Nadal to win more. Never a question about Federer's motivation because he probably wants it more now than he ever has because of a shorter window of opportunity. I'm sure Murray wants another, but without the pressure of winning one ... I'm just curious to see his approach.

I don't think level of motivation will be an issue for Murray tonight. Like they say when you win a Superbowl or any championship, once you get that taste, once is not enough. Also, Murray is part of the Big Four club and winning another Slam will show the other guys he's not a one and out type player. Murray feasts on moments like these.....winning slams is all he ever talks about. If anything, winning the US Open alleviated that pressure and now he can go out freestroking which added with his defensive prowess, makes him a very formidable "Big Four".

[Coopertrooper]

I find it tough to find the winner here. Still leaning Fed, for nothing more than simply 'just because'. I'm only game enough to back Fed to win a set, as I'm pretty sure he will, but I couldn't pick the winner here.

You've been on fire though, so I wouldn't be betting against you MDF GL!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Great write up. I agree with you on the value. Unfortunately my book still has it at -155, so it might end up being a no play for me. Thinking about throwin a little on the 3-0 or 3-1 tho.

[philippe61]

Has Murray ever beaten roger at the aussie open let alone any major I think not roger it is Murray chockes tooo much on the big stage

[philippe61]

I don't think level of motivation will be an issue for Murray tonight. Like they say when you win a Superbowl or any championship, once you get that taste, once is not enough. Also, Murray is part of the Big Four club and winning another Slam will show the other guys he's not a one and out type player. Murray feasts on moments like these.....winning slams is all he ever talks about. If anything, winning the US Open alleviated that pressure and now he can go out freestroking which added with his defensive prowess, makes him a very formidable "Big Four".

Ya that's all he ever talks about because he never wins them lol one us open and u think he'll snap a winless record (in majors)against the greatest tennis player of all time I have feds 3-2

[philippe61]

And it's a good thing that speed is the smallest part of Federer game he gets the job done with pinpoint accuracy and unmatchable topspin I just can't see Murray beating on a stage that he's never done but BOL

[goblue12]

BetFair is hovering around -139/+136 at the moment.

Lots of bets being matched on Murray which normally isn't a good thing.

I put a little on Murray -135 at my local.

Just gotta play the numbers I guess.

[Wilfred]

I agree with Murray (Unfortunately), but it will have nothing to do with fitness. Stings match was 48 hours ago, and Fed is in great shape.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I agree with Murray (Unfortunately), but it will have nothing to do with fitness. Stings match was 48 hours ago, and Fed is in great shape.

Fitness contributes to a lot of things that appear on the stat sheet but the general public don't notice. Dips in first serve percentage, unforced errors, etc......concentration plays a big part but fitness is equally to blame when it comes down to the later sets. Fed can look fine and dandy all he wants on the exterior but stats don't lie and fitness is a subconscious contributor.

[ttwarrior1]

i picked murray to win us open, murray ain't winning tonight

fed playing at his normal time and murray hasn't. Hell he had to go practice 3 hours after his last match to get used to late conditions.
Plus Lendl is not there

[ghislaine]

I always tail Your picks when I catch them MDF. You are money in the bank my man
Going to watch this game with enthusiasm, as I happen to like Murray best too !

[MagicDiceFlow]

I always tail Your picks when I catch them MDF. You are money in the bank my man
Going to watch this game with enthusiasm, as I happen to like Murray best too !

I'll be enjoying match this as well .......good luck buddy.

[suicidekings]

I don't think 3-0 is very likely, so I'm splitting my bet between between Murray 3-1 & 3-2. Wish I'd done it earlier as both got deflated a fair bit in the last 90 minutes or so...

[Sharp Snake]

I dont think I've ever seen such a big discrepancy between "sharps" and "squares". Just about every casual fan is on Federer.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I dont think I've ever seen such a big discrepancy between "sharps" and "squares". Just about every casual fan is on Federer.

Yep, casual money couldn't lay off that enticing line on Fed. Anyone that follows tennis sharply knows that Murray is the 2nd best player behind Djoker. The line was undervalued for Andy imo.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Fed's shots are not penetrating anywhere near deep enough for Andy so far 1st set.

Plus Fed's potent first serves are getting returned by Andy 75% of the time, very bad sign for Roger. Everything from Andy has more mustard on it so far ......serves, returns, groundstrokes and defense.

[Sharp Snake]

Yep, casual money couldn't lay off that enticing line on Fed. Anyone that follows tennis sharply knows that Murray is the 2nd best player behind Djoker. The line was undervalued for Andy imo.

Yep, couldn't agree more.

[Hall2Collie]

Fed's ground strokes appear to be sharper early in the second but his first serve is icky.

Can't see him holding off another break if this continues.