Serena Williams to win @ -109, $1.91 (IAS/Sportsbet) 3x
Analysis - Who's going to beat her??
Seriously though is it possible to be playing the best tennis of an already stellar career at age 31? I challenge anyone to say otherwise considering she is 47-3 in her last 50 matches and has won the last two slams played. Actually saying she has won the last two slams doesn't really do justice to her domination. She has lost a total of 4 sets (2 of them to Aza) across Wimbledon and the US open, and at the US open (Hardcourt like the Aus open) she was unstoppable, 7-0 matches played, 14-1 sets and 85-32 games won! (with 13 of those to Aza in the final).
So who is going to beat her, Masha? Wozza? Radwanska? Please... In my opinion with Clijsters retired and Venus way past her best there are only 3 players who could beat Serena at a hard court slam, and they are Li, Kvitova and Azarenka. The problem is they would need to be playing at the top of their games AND hope Serena is not at the top of hers. We are talking about a first ballot hall of famer, arguably the greatest female tennis player of all time and she is (still) in her prime.
With her physique it's not hard to understand how she hits the ball so hard, what is amazing is how a big girl can move like Serena does? It almost defies the laws of physics? Technically Serena is unmatched, their is no point trying to find a woman with more technical skill than Serena in the WTA, as she is the summit that all else aspire to. Is it fair then that she can serve faster than some ATP players and hit the ball as hard as ANY woman on tour. Like Fed, Serena is the master of using her serve to get herself out of tricky situations. Yet possibly her biggest weapon of all is her mental strength, been there, done that, yawn...
Nothing fazes Serena, she has seen it all but far more importantly is the fact that Serena hates to lose, I mean she absolutely loathes it! A good coach can teach many skills but that inner fire (that so many of the mentally weak WTA girls lack) cannot be taught, you either have it or you don't and Serena has it so bad that many times throughout her career she has been booed, hated on, called out in the media, you name it, for being rude, arrogant, feisty, even down right nasty. The astute tennis observer will have noticed however that over time Serena has matured and learned how to control her emotions and the behaviour she displays in public and yet has not lost that inner fire that burns so badly within her. Sometimes when I see Serena glaring at her opponent across the court I wonder if she actually is imagining herself beating the snot out of the dainty little European (Kirilenko, Ivanovic, etc) on the other side of the net, I mean the girl did grow up in South Central LA. Ok enough of the Serena worshipping. At close to evens I think this is a great bet, obviously the odds were slightly better a week ago and slightly better the week before that, however it is what it is. As long as you can get over -120 ($1.83) then Serena looks like a great bet to win the Australian Open this year, not just due to her own abilities, but also due to the lack of any legitimate rivals.
Any time you can get her as a short favorite to win a Slam, it's a money maker if you do it right. By taking her, you'll have a hedge whenever you see fit at plus money every round because no one is going to be favored over her. Normally you don't have to worry about the hedge unless she picks up an injury or illness or doesn't look good on the court ...
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