[beefcake]

Before you call me a nutjob here me out.I think with many players now more concerned with managing their schedule to avoid burnout and injury there is going to be more opportunities for qualies to make deep runs in the 250's. Obviously I would need my head examined to bet any futures on qualies in majors with 16 of em in each and they will never even come close.1000's I dont think either and even with Janowiczs run in Paris it was a anomaly.But in 250s especially last year we had Nieminen win and other players make runs to the SF or finals.I just think that after the top 10 or so players that the talent level gap is not that large and as you well know motivation for players in these 32 main draws where their is no advantage of having a bye and usually all the QF after having to play 3 days in a row are given 1-2 rest days before playing players that sometimes arrive to the tourney late or having to deal with other factors.Many times you can get futures prices around 50-1 and higher and once they win 2-3 matches and other top seeds have gone out their are many opps to hedge.Never more than 4 QF in one tourney, so I think you could keep your future bets small and wait until Friday or Saturday to see how they are doing. I have no stats to back up if QF are making deeper runs than in previous years, this is just a hunch.

All of these bets would of course go through 5 dimes as they are the only book that has futures on every mens tourney.

Please let me know what you think...

[Optional]

[Optional]

I like the idea. (and like how you often post left of centre ideas)

But might be safer to take them as first round winners and not worry about them having to go deep?

[beefcake]

These are the QF stats from 2012:

7 finals made..6/7 were in 250's..only one being Janowicz in Paris..

29 Quarterfinals made..26 in 250's

12 SF made/10 in 250

7 finals made..6 in 250's

1 winner..Nieminen..

40 ATP 250's...so one out of every 4 tourneys a Qualie made a Semi...

Food for thought..

[beefcake]

Well in about 75% of these qualies that made the Quarters or farther, they were all seeded in the qualifying round..Maybe just bet futures on who was seeded who in turn makes it to the main draw..This would be a further filter to weed out losing bets..Yeah and then I could then filter out players who sleep on their back and fart only after midnight on match days....

Still might track em for shits this year so see Hypothetically how I would do...AKA..Air bets..

[beefcake]

Ok, futures are out with the Qualies included now for Brisbane.I will post the odds for all but will only be tracking the players that were seeded.

Looks like Harrison if anyone is going to make a run here, its him.Best case is two win 2 matches and have Murray not give a shit and lose, then it all opens up.Buts that's what has to happen basically in almost every 250 tourney, 2-3 seeded players come in not giving a shit and a qualie gets hot or catches some breaks.

Millman +50000(whatever)
Kudla +15000
Levine +10000..1 unit
Harrison +7500..1 unit..




Hope to see Chennai and Doha up later tonight..

[beefcake]

Fukk it, I will TRY to track Qualies ATS and $$ line in 250's. Not guaranteeing anything as my time will be limited this year. Mind you only 250's here,the 500/1000 and Majors will be a nice break.Once again futures for only seeded qualies. All of em will be 1 unit with appropriate juice..Of course lines may vary depending what time I get them.But all will be from 5 dimes..

Millman -140..
-2 -110

Levine -135
-1.5 -118

Kudla +160
+3 -105

Harrison -185
-2.5 -128

[Optional]

Just announced Millman gets wildcard spot for Aussie Open. (and Barty)

[beefcake]

Nice he deserves it!

Chennai..

Futures..

Bemelmans +6600..1 unit..
Stebe +10000..1 unit
Ram..+15000..1 unit..

​Amritaj +20000

[beefcake]

Chennai Ml and Spreads

Bemelmans -130
-1.5 -110

Stebe..+173
+ 3 -105

Ram +130
+2 -110

Amritraj +180
+3.5 -120

[beefcake]

No futures..did not stay up to see them posted..too late now


Qualies...

From 5 dimes.

Brown +6 -115
+1400

Brands +3.5 -125
+168

Henrych +5 +100
+525

Kamke -5 -122
-590

[beefcake]

Stats after the first round

ATS 7-4-1 +2.34

ML 5-7 -1.29

[beefcake]

Futures..Doha

Kamke +8000
Brands +8000..went back to original opening odds to get this price..Not betting just tracking..

[beefcake]

Did not have time to post today as I was shit deep in my kids diapers all morning.hey more important things to do than entertain your fukks on here..LOL..

Bit here here is how the remaining qualies did today...with once again vs Money line and Spreads and up to date totals after..

Armritraj +250..Loss
+3.5 +110..Win

Stebe...+360 ..Loss
+4..-120..loss

Brands -909..Win
-5.5 -108..Loss

Kamke +1000..loss
+5.5 -101..loss

Ml 1-4..-3.00
ATS 1-3..-2.19

Totals ML 6-10 -4.29
ATS 8-7-1 +0.15

First rounds..7-4-1 +2.34
ML 5-7 -1.29

Second rounds..Ml 1-4 -3.00
ATS 1-3 -2.19

1 Future still alive of seeded Qualie..BRANDS at 80-1. So far 0-6 -6.00..brands pending..

[beefcake]

Brands +4 -110
+285..

[beefcake]

Well forgot Millman, who covered..

Brands at 80-1 is still alive!!! hedge city..

Millman was +1600 ML..Loss
ATS..+6..Push..

Totals ATS 9-7-2 +1.15
Brands won on the ML so..
ML 7-11 -2.44

Gotta figure up a way to hedge an 80-1 future!!

[Optional]

Well forgot Millman, who covered..

Brands at 80-1 is still alive!!! hedge city..

Millman was +1600 ML..Loss
ATS..+6..Push..

Totals ATS 9-7-2 +1.15
Brands won on the ML so..
ML 7-11 -2.44

Gotta figure up a way to hedge an 80-1 future!!

1/3 of the payout on each of the next 3 rounds?

[beefcake]

Maybe..gas can is -450..better yet to bet Cokehead on a future then bet ferrer in the final..Or the donkey wins today and beats ferrer then I am golden..

[beefcake]

Gonna hold off and see if brands can extend the streak

Brands +4 +105

Brands +328

[beefcake]

No dice with brands in the future 0-6 -6 units.But you could have made some cash with a hedge.5 dimes never offered them for Doha

Another qualie covers ATS

ATS 10-7-2 +2.3
ML 7-12 -3.44

[beefcake]

Had to bring this up.Busy as hell and no chance to track this this year.But had to mention Gulbis won as a QF last week.Think he was around 15 to 20-1 to win it..

[Hardcoar]

Likely 20 at least, but the odds weren't impressive to me.