[EaglesPhan36]

Already end of the year for the broads in Istanbul. Format for those who don't know is Round Robin in the groups and then the top two from each group advance to semis. #1 vs. #2 from each group and then the two winners move to the Final. It is possible for the Final to have two players from the same group as a result. Feel free to use this thread for chatter throughout the week.

Surface: Indoor Hard

WHITE GROUP
Sharapova +125
Kvitova +175
Radwanska +300
Errani +1600

RED GROUP
Serena -150
Azarenka +175
Li +1000
Kerber +1200

OVERALL WINNER
Serena +100
Azarenka +200
Kvitova +700
Sharapova +750
Radwanska +1600
Li +2500
Kerber +2800
Errani +660


PREVIEW
The past two years, the #3 overall seed has won this thing: Kvitova in 2011 and Clijsters in 2010. #1 seeds do not fare well in this at all. That would be Azarenka this year. Azarenka did make the final last year, losing in three to Kvitova. Looking at the groups:

WHITE
Sharapova got a sweet draw to avoid both Serena & Azarenka whom she has a poor record against. Sharapova lost quickly last year @ this event, losing her first two matches in the group and getting the boot. She starts against Errani which should be a good potential starting W for Sharapova. Errani has had a fantastic season, but the surface does not suit her well. Kvitova & Radwanska start against each other for the other match in this group. Surface favors Kvitova, but her form has been less than stellar. She is 3-for-3 against Ag-Rad though, dominating two matches on similar surfaces. Kvitova is 15-0 on this surface dating back through last year's Championships. Sharapova has winning records over all three girls in this group, while Kvitova has winning marks against Radwanska & Errani, but is 2-4 against Sharapova. Sharapova & Kvitova look to be the two favorites rightfully so to advance out of this group. This looks tailor made for both to win against Radwanska & Errani and then the head-2-head decides the group winner.

RED
The big question here would seem to be can Serena hit the ground running without any sort of lead-up matches since the US Open? Serena has rarely shown too rusty this season when rebooting after a break, but she also rarely is in the position where she has to play higher echelon players to open. She opens with Kerber. Kerber dumped out in Beijing with an ankle injury though, so her own fitness could be an issue although she has had several weeks to heal. The surface can give Kerber a shot if she can maintain consistency. She won two indoor titles in the Spring-time & has the power to keep up with Serena who she beat in Cincy this year. This opener is really an intriguing match that could shape an upset-laiden group. Azarenka goes up against Li. Vika shows great form with two titles and the last coming on an indoor hard surface. Azarenka has won three straight against Na Lim including straight sets @ last year's event. Li has not been great on this surface and is in a group where I think power will do her in. Note that she is 5-1 vs. Kerber though. Honestly as with most tournaments, if Serena is here to win - she will. She has a great record against everyone in this event and is especially in the heads of maybe the next best two - Azarenka & Sharapova who are a combined 3-19 against Serena. Azarenka though should have some hope as their US Open battle was the closest she came to beating her, losing 7-5 in the 3rd where she was a game away from winning the title. That or she has no chance because it's a large mental block.

PREDICTIONS
WHITE: Sharapova, Kvitova advance
RED: Azarenka, Serena advance

FUTURES BETS

WHITE GROUP WINNER
Sharapova +125
Kvitova +175

*Putting the same amount on both to win this group seems a solid shot at profit. It would be shocking to see one or the other not come out as the group winner. Radwanksa to me is the one that could upset the order, but I still think on the surface if Sharapova & Kvitova serve well - they beat her.

OVERALL WINNER
Serena +100

*This to me is the best wager on the board. #1, Serena obviously at her best or something close to it can beat everyone in this field. #2, fantastic hedge opportunity throughout the tournament as she will command the favorite's price all the way through and leave you with a dog hedge wherever you see fit. If you play it right, there should be the chance to make money on this one way or the other.

[EaglesPhan36]

Will add that I think a healthy Kerber might pull off at least one shocker for a win over Azarenka or Serena & Radwanska has potential for one as well against Sharapova or Kvitova. Should be a fun week.

[BRUTUSB33FCAKE]

I think Kerber tomorrow +5 1/2 is an amazing value assuming the ankle is healthy. I can't see Serena steam rolling her or anything close to it.

[tevari]

The only possible future is Serena at even money IMO. I'm probably going to fade Ag-Rad hard this week; I think she's straight up gassed and her opponents pose issues for her style of game.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Kerber tomorrow +5 1/2 is an amazing value assuming the ankle is healthy. I can't see Serena steam rolling her or anything close to it.

Seems an absolute stretch to play anything in that match IMO. It's all guesswork as to who is going to be what especially in that one.

[freshguy222]

i am 100% sure that kerbers ankle is healthy, read a long interview in german about her and she said she could have played in luxembourg already, but did not want to risk anything regarding this tournament.
however i see no chance whatsoever for kerber to advance here, because serena will win against her, that win in cincy means nothing as serena didnt want to, lost the first service game in each set to not to get in danger of winning and herfootwork was not there at all.
azarenka should get it done as well, although the matchup for kerber is not too bad, but i dont see her keeping up with vika talent-wise, maybe to closer sets but no real upset potential, except for if vika serves as many double faults as she did in linz, cost me some spread covers in that tournament. but i have kerber losing around 45% of her service games against her.
the other problem is is that Na Li is the nightmare matchup for Kerber as the record indicates and the eyeproof if you have ever seen them play.
So i agree with you on Serena and Vika advancing here.

As for the other group, Sharapova is soooo lucky. If somewhat on her game she should manhnadle errani, although she will put up a fight. But to me, Radwanska is gassed and does not deserve that high a position in the ranking, she gets there by beating up on lower-talented opponents and never losing to them. As for Kvitova, I see her winning against errani and probably radwanska, as for the match against Sharapova, she will need a mental boost that ups her game a lot, but she could get that boost from her win here last year. That was other than Wimbledon a break-through for her alhtough she could not keep that level throughout the season.

As for the semifinals, Sharapova will go out, I am pretty sure here, the matchup against both serena and vika is a catastrophe and they are apart from that especially right now way more talented. Kvitova will get beat rather easily as well if she makes it except for if she finds her game during the group phase.

I dont see too much value however in the first round, maybe Kvitova on the spread against Radwanska. The hook on the 6.5 line for Sharapova scares me but tells me that she will dominate Errani. And the kerber game is difficult with the spread, although i dont give her a real shot at winning. Could be right on target with 5.5, always depends on what happens in the 2nd set, even if the first one is rather close. And the 2nd set is always tough to cap because it depends on what appends earlier.

[Pinocchio]

In round 1 I like:

Kerber +6 (1.85)
Radwanska (2.4)

4.5:1

[EaglesPhan36]

Serena showed a lot of grit today. Rallied from 1-4 down to win in a 1st set tie break and then crushed Li in the 2nd. Good for her being able to win without a good serve. She's in the semis guaranteed with two wins. Azarenka-Serena tomorrow. Interesting match. Vika really had to grind to beat Kerber in three. Tough for her to come right back after that three hour grueler, but Serena could potentially just coast seeing as she has advanced. A win gets her the top spot - but don't know if she cares as she has dominated everyone in the other group. If Azarenka loses, she has to beat Li in her last RR match to advance.

[GoBlue77]

Serena can lose to Vika and still make Finals. Might take Vika +165

Keber over Ni La +120


If Serena beats Vika, beating BIG on Vika over Na Li Friday....

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the Serena-Azarenka match is a no bet IMO. Just the motivation angle for Serena vs. fatigue for Azarenka makes it difficult to know who will show up. I expect a full effort from Serena to keep her mental advantage over the field, but she gains nothing with a win or loss since she is onto the next round. So again she can absolutely fukk around if she chooses. Seeding doesn't really mean shit since you don't know who is going to be #1 & #2 in the other group - Sharapova with a leg up on #1, but she could still finish #2 depending on her last match in the RR. So Serena won't know who she matches up against regardless of a win or loss. Definitely more important to Azarenka to win, but As you mention she has Li on Friday and will have her fate in her own hands either way.

Not real sure about that Kerber pick. Li owns her head-2-head and Kerber may be gassed from the Azarenka match/disinterested since she is pretty much out of this event with two losses. Think Kerber would have to be confident and get off to a good start to have a shot or she could get rolled.

[DoubleRedDragon]

Serena can lose to Vika and still make Finals. Might take Vika +165

Keber over Ni La +120


If Serena beats Vika, beating BIG on Vika over Na Li Friday....

Very interesting that Serena can lose and still make it............... thank you for this valuable info!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Make sure you are understanding correct. She is in the SEMIFINALS no matter what happens today. She is NOT in the Finals unless she wins in the SEMIS. Semifinal matches are usual one & done set-up.

[DoubleRedDragon]

How does this match effect her other than meta-game (psychology)

[EaglesPhan36]

Just seeding. Top 2 in each group advance. #1 v. #2 from each group. Doesn't mean anything IMO because she has dominated everyone in both groups head-2-head. So whether it is Sharapova or Radwanska or Errani or Stosur from the other group that she plays first, it really shouldn't mean anything other than not wanting to lose momentum by losing today.

[Hangoverblack]

Serena is the play. I think Vika more likely to tank and save best effort to defeat Serena for the medal round. I realize she must then beat Li, but that's quite doable.

[Hangoverblack]

Serena absolutely Manned Up and kicked Vika in the ovaries, after a double break found her down 0-3 in Set 2. What a dominating run she is on.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah that future to win the tourney still looks strong. She hasn't played near her best for two sets yet and hasn't dropped a set with the TB with Li being the closest, although she ran away with the TB. Hoping that Serena whips whomever she gets in the semis and Vika beats her b-yatch so they can play for the title. By far, they are the two best in WTA and should play for the title IMO.

[EaglesPhan36]

So Serena tops the Red Group @ 3-0. Winner of Azarenka-Li tomorrow takes #2 spot. White Group - Sharapova has advanced, Winner of Ag-Radwanska-Errani advances.

[RosieTheGreat]

Azarenka wrecks li tommorow 100% of the time every time.

[EaglesPhan36]

PREDICTIONS
WHITE: Sharapova, Kvitova advance
RED: Azarenka, Serena advance

FUTURES BETS

WHITE GROUP WINNER
Sharapova +125
Kvitova +175

*Putting the same amount on both to win this group seems a solid shot at profit. It would be shocking to see one or the other not come out as the group winner. Radwanksa to me is the one that could upset the order, but I still think on the surface if Sharapova & Kvitova serve well - they beat her.

OVERALL WINNER
Serena +100

*This to me is the best wager on the board. #1, Serena obviously at her best or something close to it can beat everyone in this field. #2, fantastic hedge opportunity throughout the tournament as she will command the favorite's price all the way through and leave you with a dog hedge wherever you see fit. If you play it right, there should be the chance to make money on this one way or the other.

Well the strategy paid off for the White Group winner even with Kvitova leaving early. Semis almost set. Based on the match-ups, don't think I am going to do any hedging on the Serena overall future in this round. I just think she is too strong on this surface for Ag-Rad, especially if she plays closer to her A-game which is a scary thought for everyone else. Hopefully that doesn't burn me and I can hedge in the Finals depending on who is there. I think I would if Azarenka gets there. Sharapova, probably not.

Semifinals ...

Sharapova v. Azarenka or Li
Serena v. Ag-Radwanska

[EaglesPhan36]

Azrenka it is. Should be Vika & Serena in the Final based on the match-ups. Vika has owned Masha on hard courts the past couple years.

[freshguy222]

well i think we all agree that serena will prevail, radwanska has nothing that serena should be in anyway afraid of.
the vika game is strange because both players are not playing well right now, i agree the matchup favours vika a lot here and talent wise she is way above masha, however right now it looks to me like it is more important who sucks less in that match, both really not impressive. masha blew away stosur but again matchup ir ridiculously good for her agaisnt stosur and she was not really in istanbul it seems.
and vikas performances have not really been stellat either, could have lost to kerber and should have lost higher to serena.

[EaglesPhan36]

Quite shocked at the ease with which Sharapova won today. Suppose this is just with the two unbeaten players meeting in the Final. Have to see what the price is on Masha as far as a hedge on the Serena future - she should be a pretty substantial dog still. She was about +380 to open when they met in London. Anything over +300 is an easy call for me to make a hedge and guarantee some money. This is winning time, not greedy time. I do think Serena is going to win, but it is WTA at the end of the day.

[GoBlue77]

Quite shocked at the ease with which Sharapova won today. Suppose this is just with the two unbeaten players meeting in the Final. Have to see what the price is on Masha as far as a hedge on the Serena future - she should be a pretty substantial dog still. She was about +380 to open when they met in London. Anything over +300 is an easy call for me to make a hedge and guarantee some money. This is winning time, not greedy time. I do think Serena is going to win, but it is WTA at the end of the day.

i will roll with pova on the spread depending on the number....

[MUHerd37]

Serena will win. She will pounce on Pova's serve

[EaglesPhan36]

+320 on Sharapova. So I have $250 to Win $275 on Serena, actually got her +110 when I bet it. $100 on Sharapova will do nicely.

[freshguy222]

hey eagles, do you remember what the spread was in london? i remember cashing in on serena -7 +350ish but what was it at even oods? or any way to look it up?

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh man I have no idea. Not sure where you can find old spread info. Serena grinding through to a straight sets win it looks like.